Unemployment demands quick action

失業問題に早急な対策を

Figures from public employment centers also give a disturbing picture, with applications far exceeding offers at the ratio of 1 to 0.6 (60 jobs available for every 100 applications). The job availability ratio, which dropped to a record 0.46 in May and June 1999, improved through the rest of the year. Since January, however, it has continued to decline.

Unemployment is ascribed to two major factors. One is cyclical, or the shortage of demand in a period of economic contraction. The other is structural: the "mismatch" between job applications and offers, a problem seen more widely in a period of industrial reorganization. The Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry says the weight of the second factor has increased in recent years, indicating that the supply-demand gap in the job market has widened in qualitative terms as well.

In 1998, when unemployment averaged 4.1 percent, 3.2 percentage points of it were attributed to the structural factor. In 2000, this factor accounted for 3.7 points of the 4.7-percent jobless rate. An exact figure for this factor in July is yet unavailable, but it seems certain that this factor was even more responsible for unemployment.

Corporate layoffs are the biggest reason for "structural unemployment." With banks stepping up efforts to write off bad loans in line with Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's reform program, a further wave of job cuts by deadbeat businesses is unavoidable. Hardest hit are white-collar workers in low-productivity sectors like construction and distribution.

Of the 3.3 million people who were out of work in July, 990,000 were the "involuntary unemployed," who quit for reasons such as corporate restructuring. By contrast, 1.14 million were the "voluntary unemployed," who left of their own accord. Their number has tended to rise more rapidly in recent months than that of the involuntary unemployed.

The distinction between "voluntary" and "involuntary" is often artificial, however. Consider those in their 40s and 50s who leave their companies under preferential early-retirement programs. They are regarded as voluntary leavers and are therefore treated in the same way as regular retirees in the payment of unemployment insurance benefits. The fact is that many have had to quit in the name of early retirement.

Getting jobs through public employment centers is becoming more difficult than ever. In fact, the chances of success are so small that only one in four applicants manages to find work. Most applicants are rejected largely because they are "too old" or ask for "high pay." Prospects for re-employment are gloomy particularly for middle-aged and older people.

The government immediately began using a ¥60 billion emergency fund to subsidize companies hiring workers aged between 45 and 59. The fund is deployed on a nationwide basis over a six-month period. But this is only part of the urgent countermeasures that the government must take to prevent a further worsening of the nation's employment situation.

With the mismatch factor accounting for the bulk of unemployment, the immediate solution must be to create more jobs in specific areas, rather than stimulate overall demand. More specifically, employment in the public sector, particularly in areas such as environmental conservation, education, health care and welfare, should be increased on a priority basis.

Public-sector job creation can quickly absorb surplus labor in the private sector. Both the central and local governments should take necessary steps in this direction. In doing so they can count on nongovernmental and nonprofit organizations.

It is also necessary to take legislative measures designed to help long-term jobless people through the painful transition. In this connection, a legislation proposed by Rengo (Trade Union Confederation) merits consideration. It calls for, among other things, a moratorium on mortgage payments, a complete refund of children's schooling expenses and issuance of free job-retraining coupons.

All available means must be mobilized to ease the social impact of unemployment. Otherwise, the worsening employment situation seems likely to foil Mr. Koizumi's structural reforms before such changes are launched. If that occurs, unemployment and the economic slump could touch off a long-term vicious circle. Quick and bold policy responses are demanded.

The Japan Times: Aug. 31, 2001
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     失業の主な要因は二つある。一つは経済収縮期の需要不足による周期的要因、もう一つは求職と求人の不均衡を生む、産業再編期にみられる構造的要因だ。厚生労働省によれば近年、構造的要因の重みが増しており、質的な面でも雇用市場の需給ギャップが広がりつつあることを示しているという。

     98年、平均4.1%の失業率のうち3.2%は構造的要因に起因する失業だった。2000年にはこの要因が4.7%のうち3.7%を占めるようになった。今回7月時点での数字はまだ出ていないが、失業の要因としてさらに大きくなっていることは確かだ。この｢構造的失業｣の最大の理由は企業のレイオフである。小泉政権の構造改革計画にそって銀行が不良債権処理を進めるなか、業績不振の企業の人員削減は避けられない。この人員削減に最も影響を受けるのは建設や流通などの生産性の低い業界のホワイトカラー労働者だ。

     7月の失業者330万人中99万人が企業のリストラなどの対象となった｢非自発的｣離職者だ。これに対し114万人が「自発的」離職者だという。しかし｢自発的｣と｢非自発的｣の区別は人為的なものである場合が多い。早期退職制度により退職する40代、50代の人々は自発的離職者とみなされ、失業保険では普通の退職者と同じ扱いを受ける。しかし、早期退職の名のもとに辞めざるを得なかった人も多くいるのだ。

     公共職業安定所の斡旋による就職率は4人に1人と、極めて困難な状況だ。求職者のほとんどは年齢が高すぎる、希望の給与が高すぎる等の理由で断られる。特に中高年層の再就職の道は険しい。政府は45歳から59歳の労働者を雇う企業への緊急雇用創出特別奨励金を半年間、600億円規模で発動したが、雇用状況改善の緊急対策として政府が取るべき措置はまだ他にもある。まず、環境保護、教育、医療、福祉といった公共部門の雇用を優先的に創出することが第一歩だろう。

     失業の社会的影響を和らげるためあらゆる手を打たなくてはならない。これを放置すれば雇用状況の悪化が構造改革を阻み、失業と不況が長期の悪循環を生むことになりかねない。迅速で強力な対策が望まれる。

The Japan Times Weekly
Sept 8, 2001
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