Stunning news from North Korea

北朝鮮、核開発を認める

Now, Japan, the United States and South Korea, along with other nations, must coordinate efforts to convince the North to abandon its nuclear weapons program — and any other programs committed to the development of weapons of mass destruction — and honor its international agreements. There can be no normalization of relations with a country that fails to honor its international commitments.

Mr. Kelly's visit to Pyongyang was the first high-level outreach by a U.S. official to the North since President George W. Bush took office. The U.S. administration has made no secret of its feelings about the North Korean government (Mr. Bush included it in his "axis of evil"), its suspicions of Pyongyang's intentions and its contempt for the Agreed Framework, the 1994 agreement between Washington and Pyongyang that was designed to cap the North's nuclear weapons program in exchange for fuel oil and two light-water nuclear reactors. This week's developments suggest U.S. skepticism was justified.

At the meeting in Pyongyang, Mr. Kelly reportedly laid out a list of U.S. concerns and said North Korean efforts to address those issues could lead to an improvement in U.S.-North Korean relations. Among those concerns was evidence that the North was cheating on the Agreed Framework. Evidently, to Mr. Kelly's surprise, North Korea admitted it had a nuclear weapons development program. Mr. Kelly briefed Seoul and Tokyo on the news and then hurried home as the U.S. planned its response.

The North Korean announcement has been rightfully denounced. A spokesman said Mr. Bush called it "troubling, sobering news," but the president did not make a statement himself. That is part of a decision not to increase tensions and to work through diplomatic channels to address the issue. The U.S. is seeking a "peaceful solution," explained the spokesman. Both the U.S. and South Korea have called on Pyongyang to honor its promises to renounce the development of nuclear arms.

Japan's reaction has been similar. Government officials warned that the nuclear weapons program could hinder efforts to normalize bilateral ties. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said that, because he had been briefed on U.S. concerns before his trip to Pyongyang last month, he raised the nuclear weapons issue. Speaking to reporters, Mr. Koizumi said, "We want (North Korea) to take measures in a sincere manner to get rid of suspicions about a nuclear (weapons program) in the future." Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda warned that normalization will not go forward if North Korea is breaking its promise and said the news could prompt reconsideration of Japan's role in the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization, which is building the reactors as part of the Agreed Framework.

Three big questions remain unanswered. The first is whether North Korea has nuclear weapons. Pyongyang admitted to having a development program; that does not mean it has weapons. Even U.S. intelligence experts are unclear whether the North has a nuclear bomb.

The second question is why North Korea admitted it had been cheating. There are several theories: The first is that the North wanted to focus U.S. attention and get Washington to make a deal that would exchange economic aid and security guarantees for the nuclear program. Another theory posits that the North wanted to come clean, as it did when it admitted to having abducted Japanese citizens. In so doing, it was attempting to clean the slate and get relations with the U.S. off to a fresh start. The third explanation is that Pyongyang was angry following accusations at the meeting with Mr. Kelly and admitted the program to force the U.S. to take North Korea seriously.

The third and most important question is what will happen next. The emphasis on a diplomatic solution is correct. War is not an option. Mr. Kelly is now traveling to Tokyo and Seoul to consult with allies on a response. These governments must stress the need for Pyongyang to honor its commitments and to abandon its attempts to build weapons of mass destruction. The North's admission that it cheated on the Agreed Framework makes diplomacy tougher, since it will be harder to believe any pledge that Pyongyang makes. But that does not make the pursuit of a diplomatic solution any less urgent.

The Japan Times:
October 19, 2002
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日米韓は他の国々との協調のもと、北朝鮮に対し核兵器や大量破壊兵器の開発を中止し、国際条約を遵守するよう説得しなくてはならない。ブッシュ政権は北朝鮮を「悪の枢軸」の一部と名指しするなど反感をあらわにし、核開発凍結の見返りに燃料と軽水炉を提供する米朝枠組み合意を無視しているのではないかとの疑惑を表明してきた。

米朝高官協議でケリー氏が米朝枠組み合意違反の証拠についての懸念を伝えた結果、北朝鮮側が核開発計画を認めたわけだが、この事実の公表は当然ながら非難を浴びた。ただしブッシュ大統領は正式な声明を発表しなかった。外交を通じて平和的に解決したい意向のようだ。

日本の反応も同様で、小泉首相は北朝鮮の誠意ある対応を求め、福田官房長官は、違反が日朝国交正常化に及ぼす影響と KEDO (朝鮮半島エネルギー開発機構)での日本の役割の再検討を示唆した。

この問題に関して疑問が 3つある。第 1に、北朝鮮が核兵器を保有しているかどうかだ。核開発計画の存在イコール核兵器の保有とはいえない。

第 2に、北朝鮮はなぜ合意違反を認めたのか。これについては開発計画放棄の代価として経済援助や安全保障を得る取引をしようとしているとの見方や、日本人拉致を認めた時のように事実を認めて、 米朝関係の一新を狙っているという見方がある。また、高官協議でのケリー氏の指摘に怒り、米国の真剣な対応を引き出すために核開発を認めたとも考えられる。

第 3の重大な疑問は、今後の展開だ。米朝枠組み合意に違反した北朝鮮の約束はもはや信じ難い。それでもやはり、最も適切な手段である外交による解決を探ることは急務である。

The Japan Times Weekly
October 26, 2002
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