Bringing stability to Iraq

イラク安定への道

When the war began three weeks ago, fears of prolonged hostilities were gripping the world economy. Now the specter of a wartime recession seems to have all but disappeared. Still, longer-term economic prospects remain cloudy, largely for reasons that have nothing to do with the fighting.

The central concern is political. If military victory has come relatively easily, winning the peace is more difficult and more crucial. Iraq is descending into anarchy as it frees itself from the iron grip of a brutal dicta torship. The coalition forces face the urgent task of restoring order and civility.

In the northern stronghold of Tikrit, allied forces continue to meet resistance from fighters faithful to Mr. Hussein. His fate is shrouded in mystery. For the Iraqi leadership, "the game is over," as Iraq's ambassador to the United Nations has conceded. But for the U.S.-led coalition, "the war is not over. There remain a lot of dangers ahead," as White House spokesman Ari Fleischer puts it.

At the start of the campaign, Gen. Tommy Franks of the U.S. Central Command in Qatar listed eight objectives, including the overthrow of the Hussein regime, removal of weapons of mass destruction, elimination of terrorism, humanitarian assistance, protection of oil fields and support for the establishment of a new government. President George W. Bush called for the "liberation" of the Iraqi people.

The dictator has been toppled from power and crippling damage to the oil fields has been prevented. But weapons of mass destruction have yet to be discovered. Mr. Hussein's suspected links to terrorist networks have yet to be proved. Full-fledged humanitarian assistance must wait until a governing authority is established. The people of Iraq will not be truly liberated until democracy is introduced nationwide.

The road ahead looks littered with pot holes. The United States and Britain, which launched the war without explicit U.N. endorsement, need to ensure that a democratic government to be created in Iraq has more than the mere blessing of the international community, for only a democratic government can bring enduring peace and prosperity. A U.N. resolution describing a road map for that will help.

The greatest challenge for the victors is to win the hearts and minds of the vanquished. After Mr. Hussein was ousted, jubilant residents in Baghdad took to the streets to welcome U.S. troops, sending a clear message that they were happy to be free. But the work of securing the respect and confidence of the Iraqi people has just started.

From the standpoint of U.S. military strategists, Operation Iraqi Freedom must have been a great success. The campaign has mobilized fewer troops than did the first Persian Gulf War. Moreover, original plans to invade Iraq across its northern border were canceled because of Turkish opposition. In the early stages of the operation, the failure of supply lines to keep up with rapidly advancing troops threatened to prolong the war. But neither did this, it seems, stand in the way of swift victory.

Gulf War II is notable in terms of combatant casualties. Official announcements put the total number of U.S. and British soldiers killed at about 120 — smaller than the number killed in Gulf War I. But the picture of civilian casualties is mixed. While the U.S. military gives a lower estimate than that for the first Gulf War, estimates by Iraq Body Count, a group of U.S. and British academics, range from 961 to 1,139.

The United States and Britain intend to take the leading role in rebuilding Iraq. The Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance is expected to administer the country until an interim authority is established. The military coalition, however, needs to stay in the country until order is restored. Bringing stability to a nation riven by ethnic and religious rivalries is difficult, to say the least. America will have won a true victory in Iraq when that mission has been accomplished with the full backing of the United Nations.

The Japan Times Weekly
April 19, 2003
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      連合軍が勝利したにしても、混乱の最中のイラクで平和を確保するのは容易ではない。北部のティクリットでは、連合軍とフセイン氏を支持する兵士が激しい戦闘を続けている。氏の生死は今なお不明である。

      開戦当時、米中央軍のフランクス司令官は軍事行動の目的としてフセイン政権の追放、大量破壊兵器の廃棄、テロの排除、人道援助、油田の保護、新政権樹立への援助をあげた。ブッシュ大統領は、イラク国民の「解放」を訴えた。

      フセイン氏は政権の座から追放され、油田への大きな被害もなかった。しかし大量破壊兵器は発見されておらず、フセイン氏のテロ組織との関係も解明されていない。本格的人道援助も新政権樹立を待たねばならない。民主主義体制が確立なしにイラク国民の解放はない。

      米英は国連安保理の明確な支持なしに軍事行動を起こしたが、民主政権樹立について国連の支持を取り付ける必要がある。

      バグダッド市民は米軍兵士を歓迎したが、連合軍の今後の課題はイラク国民の信頼を得ることだ。

      軍事戦術面から見れば「イラクの自由」作戦は大成功だった。第1次湾岸戦争よりも、連合軍兵士の動員数も死傷者も少なかった。しかし一般市民の間に多数の犠牲者が出ている。

      米英はイラクの復興に指導的役割を果たす計画を進めているという。米国政府の「復興人道支援室」は暫定政権樹立までイラクを管理する予定であるが、連合軍は秩序回復まで駐留する必要がある。米国が国連の支持を得て、人種、宗教紛争で分裂した国家の安定に成功した時、初めて真の勝利を手にすることになる。