Myanmar shows its true colors

ミャンマー政権の本性

Ms. Suu Kyi and her followers must be released and the national dialogue resumed. Since that is unlikely, the international community must be prepared to take strong action against the generals who continue to ignore the will of their people.

The sad history of Myanmar is well known. After pro-democracy forces won elections more than a decade ago, the military ignored the results, took control of the country and imprisoned Ms. Suu Kyi and her followers in an attempt to break the back of the NLD. The move failed: Ms. Suu Kyi won a Nobel Peace Prize for her commitment to democratic change in Myanmar, and concerted international pressure won her release some 19 months ago. Since then, Ms. Suu Kyi has tried to rally her followers despite attempts by the military to frustrate those efforts.

Events came to a head last month during a monthlong tour of the northern part of the country. Apparently the enthusiasm that greeted the NLD leader unnerved the government. The junta claims that her supporters started a clash that resulted in four deaths. The NLD says that Ms. Suu Kyi had been harassed by pro-government groups and that her motorcade was attacked by state-supported thugs.

The government detained Ms. Suu Kyi and more than a dozen NLD officials after the latest incident, which left more than 70 people injured in addition to the dead. The government said that Ms. Suu Kyi is in protective custody in the capital city of Yangon, but her whereabouts are unknown. There are reports that she was seriously injured in the brawl.

In addition to detaining Ms. Suu Kyi and Mr. Tin Oo, NLD vice chairman, the government placed other leaders under "protective custody" — house arrest — as it shuttered NLD offices and closed universities where support for the pro-democracy movement is strong. Last month, the government handed out prison sentences ranging from two years to life to 10 NLD activists for distributing anti-government pamphlets.

There is no longer room for the delusion that the government is moving toward reconciliation. Rather, the military has been stalling while it betters its international position in preparation for the furor that will follow when it reveals its true colors. The chorus of international condemnation that followed the recent developments shows that much of the world was taken in by the kinder, gentler face of the government. Yet there was little or no reason to believe that the junta that rules Myanmar accepted the idea of giving up any of its power.

The call for sanctions is going to be irresistible. The problem is that economic pressure has been applied and it has shown little effect. Worse, it has driven the junta closer to China, which has no qualms about doing business with the generals. Beijing has employed aggressive diplomacy to build economic, political and military links with the government. Concern that China is drawing the country into its orbit compels Myanmar's neighbors and other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to soften their hard line. There is little chance that the generals will feel the need to compromise.

That does not mean that there is no hope. It means that any strategy has to be carefully constructed to make sure that all concerned governments are on board. There is room for a division of labor that allows some countries to maintain ties to Yangon while others take a hard line. The key is ensuring that they send the same message — the release of Ms. Suu Kyi and other NLD officials, and serious talks about reconciliation. Absent negotiations, the military regime should know that it will receive nothing but humanitarian assistance and will remain on the margins of the international community.

The Japan Times Weekly
June 14, 2003
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      軍事政権は逮捕した民主化勢力指導者を釈放して、国家的対話を再開せねばならない。国際社会は、国民の意思を無視している軍事政権に対し強硬措置を取る準備を進めるべきだ。

      ミャンマーでは、10年前に民主化勢力が総選挙に勝利したが、軍事政権はそれを無視し、スーチー女史など指導者を投獄した。その後女史はノーベル平和賞を受賞、国際社会の圧力を受けた軍事政権は19ヵ月前に女史を釈放した。

      先月、女史が国民の支持を求めミャンマー北西部を訪問中、女史側と政府支持派の間に衝突が起き4人が死亡、70人が負傷した。女史を含む十数人のNLD指導者は逮捕された。女史はヤンゴンで保護監禁下にあるとされるが、所在は不明である。 軍事政権は民主化勢力との和解へ進むどころか国際的批判に対抗する姿勢だ。

      国際社会の経済的圧力はミャンマーを中国へ接近させただけだった。中国は、ミャンマーと経済的、政治的、軍事的関係を強化しようとしている。そこでASEAN諸国では対中国政策を軟化させる動きもある。

      関係各国は、対ミャンマー政策を慎重に構築せねばならない。国家によって強硬政策を推進するか、友好関係を継続するか選択すればよいが、スーチー女史などの釈放と和解交渉は一致して求めるべきだ。

      軍事政権は、意味のない和解交渉をしても人道援助以外の援助は受けられないこと、国際社会の周辺にしか存在できないことを知るべきだ。