Oil and alliance do mix

イラン油田開発問題

There is good reason to doubt Tehran's claim that its nuclear intentions are not related to weapons development. An investigation by the International Atomic Energy Agency has found that Iran is building uranium-enrichment facilities as well as an experimental heavy-water reactor.

According to informed sources, the Bush administration has urged Japan not to sign an oil-field development contract, saying it would be highly "inappropriate" for Japanese companies to make a huge investment in a country with Iran's ambitions of nuclear development.

Securing stable long-term oil supplies is the central objective of Japan's energy strategy. But it is equally essential to maintain the political and security alliance with the United States. But this is not an either/or case. There must be room for compromise.

Japan stands out as a U.S. ally that maintains friendly relations with Iran. The United States severed diplomatic ties with Tehran following the 1978-79 Iranian Revolution, but to date Japan-Iran ties have remained largely intact. Tokyo can and should take advantage of this favorable diplomatic position to find a breakthrough.

The Azadegan oil field, situated close to the Iraqi border, is one of the largest in the Middle East, with confirmed reserves of 26 billion barrels. During the visit to Japan by Iranian President Mohammad Khatami in 2000, the two countries agreed that Japanese companies would have a preferential right to develop the oil field, which was discovered in 1999.

The Japanese partners in the Azadegan project include Japan Petroleum Exploration Corp., Inpex Corp. and Tomen Corp. The consortium formed after Japan's Arabian Oil Co. lost its concessions in the Khafji oil field in 2000. The government has since regarded Azadegan as the next most important oil field to be developed under the Rising Sun flag. If it takes off, the $2.5 billion project will produce an estimated 300,000 barrels of oil a day over an estimated 20 years.

Iran's nuclear program is not the only reason the Bush administration is opposed to the oil project. The president's national security adviser, Ms. Condoleezza Rice, in a meeting with Mr. Ryozo Kato, the Japanese ambassador to the United States, gave three reasons: First, Iran supports Islamic militant groups. Second, Iran is suspected of having harbored leaders of the al-Qaeda terrorist organization. Third, the country has been linked to Shiite terrorist groups in Iraq.

Iran, along with North Korea and prewar Iraq under deposed President Saddam Hussein, is part of President Bush's "axis of evil." An opinion poll taken last month by The Washington Post found 56 percent of Americans in favor of military action to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi appears to be taking a cautious stance. "We have to consider various matters, such as the situation in Iran, concerns over nuclear non-proliferation and nuclear programs, and Japan's position," he said. "We'll study these things carefully."

The Azadegan issue, however, provides an opportunity for proactive diplomacy.

First, Japan should urge Iran to sign an additional protocol to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, thereby ensuring transparency in its nuclear development program.

Second, Japan should not easily give up on the Azadegan project under U.S. pressure. If it does, China — which maintains friendly ties with Iran — might well win a contract. Dubbed the "world's factory," China is trying to secure oil resources around the world.

Diplomacy is the best way of dealing with Iran, where the reformist Khatami regime is fighting an uphill battle against conservative hardliners. Instead of trying to "contain" Iran with strong measures, Japan should take the lead in seeking a peaceful solution to the nuclear issue. Economic cooperation, not strong-arm intervention, is a desirable incentive for internal reform.

The Japan Times Weekly
July 19, 2003
(C) All rights reserved

      国際原子力機関によれば、イランはウラン濃縮設備と実験重水炉を建設しているという。

      ブッシュ政権は、イランに対し日本企業が巨額の投資をするのは不適当であるとして計画の中止を要請したといわれる。

      安定した原油供給源の確保は日本のエネルギ−戦略の根幹であるが、米国と政治上、安全保障上の同盟関係を維持することも重要である。これは二者択一の問題ではなく、交渉の余地があるはずだ。

      米国はイラン革命後、イランと外交関係を断絶してきたが、日本は友好関係を維持している。日本はこの状況を利用して解決策を探るべきだ。

      アザデガン油田は、確認埋蔵量260億バレルで中東でも有数の規模。2000年のハタミ・イラン大統領の訪日中、両政府は油田開発に日本企業を優先させることに合意した。

      ブッシュ政権が日本の計画参加に反対する理由は核開発疑惑だけではない。ライス大統領補佐官は加藤駐米大使と会談のおり、イランがイスラム過激派を支持していること、テロ組織アルカイダの指導者を匿った疑惑があること、イラクのシーア派テロ組織と関係があることを理由に挙げたという。

      小泉首相は慎重な姿勢を取っているが、この問題は日本に積極的外交の絶好の機会を与える。

      日本はまず、イランに対し核不拡散条約の追加議定書に調印するよう求めるべきだ。次に、日本は安易に米国の圧力に屈して計画を中止すべきでない。そうすれば、イランと友好関係を維持している中国が契約を獲得する可能性が高くなる。

      日本は、イランを強硬措置で「封じ込める」のではなく、核問題の平和的解決に主導的役割を果たすべきである。強引な介入よりも経済協力がイラン改革の望ましい起爆剤になる。