A chance to end faction politics

派閥政治の解消を

LDP factions have suffered a gradual erosion of influence during the past decade. They received a major setback when a new Lower House election system of single-seat districts was introduced in 1994. Koizumi's debut in April 2001 — which defied intraparty dynamics — seems to have accelerated the decline of factional influence. Now the LDP has a good opportunity to overhaul the way it selects its leader. The forthcoming election should be an occasion to conduct a vigorous policy debate, instead of playing the factional numbers game.

An LDP leadership poll is effectively a contest to select a prime minister, since the party holds a majority in the Lower House of the Diet. Past presidential races were almost always marked by a fierce factional struggle — except in rare cases in which the outgoing president handpicked his successor or the incumbent was re-elected unopposed. A faction's raison d'etre was to put its leader in power, and its fortune depended largely on the leader's ability to raise funds and secure posts for his loyalists. That is no longer true, as shown by the turmoil in the Hashimoto faction.

Divisions in the Hashimoto faction surfaced recently as its leading members disagreed over whether to support Mr. Koizumi. Mr. Hiromu Nonaka, former LDP secretary-general and a vocal critic of the prime minister's reform agenda, argued that either the anti-Koizumi camp should unite behind a single candidate, or the Hashimoto group should field its candidate. But Mr. Mikio Aoki, who heads 42 LDP legislators in the Upper House, sided with Mr. Koizumi, saying that the prime minister's high popularity would be a big asset to the party in next year's Upper House election.

The Hashimoto group was dealt a further blow when three of its key members announced their intention to run — something unprecedented in its long history. The episode displayed a loss of factional leadership. Although the faction has settled on a single candidate, former Transportation Minister Takao Fujii, whether all of the faction's Lower House members will vote for him seems moot.

Also in disarray is the Horiuchi faction, which, along with the Hashimoto group, belongs to the conservative mainstream. Its leader, Mr. Mitsuo Horiuchi, chairman of the party's Executive Council, was until recently an anti-Koizumi stalwart. Now, though, he is throwing his weight behind the prime minister. Other key members who remain opposed to Mr. Koizumi are poised to put up a candidate.

So the field is wide open, adding an air of confusion to the contest. Already in the running is Mr. Shizuka Kamei, former chairman of the Policy Affairs Council and leader of the Eto-Kamei faction, the spearhead of anti-Koizumi forces. Former Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura, who heads his faction, is expected to join the race.

All of this makes it uncertain whether Prime Minister Koizumi will be able to win a majority on the first ballot. If he does not, a runoff will be held between Mr. Koizumi and the runnerup. In that case, the second-place faction could join hands with the third-place group to prevent Mr. Koizumi from winning. A similar scenario played out once before — in the 1956 runoff — when the top candidate lost to a rival backed by the second- and third-place groups.

Such an "unholy" alliance seems unlikely, however, in part because factional affiliation carries little weight in party-led elections for single-seat districts. What is more, Prime Minister Koizumi is committed to removing factional influences not only in presidential polls but in Cabinet changes and appointments of party executives. It is a commitment that must be maintained to rid the LDP of factionalism. First and foremost, its leader must be elected on the basis of individual, not factional, decisions.

The Japan Times Weekly
Sept. 13, 2003
(C) All rights reserved

      近年、自民党の派閥は弱体化している。今は自民党が総裁選の仕組みを改革する絶好の機会だ。今回の総裁選では派閥力学を排除し、徹底的政策論争を行うべきだ。

      過去の自民党総裁選は、まれな例を除いて、派閥間の熾烈な主導権争いだった。派閥の存在理由はその指導者を政権の座につかせることだったが、橋本派の混乱に見られるように、今は状況が異なっている。

      橋本派の野中元幹事長は反小泉勢力は候補を一本化するか、橋本派自体が候補を擁立すべきだと主張した。しかし、次の参院選挙で国民の支持率の高い首相を「選挙の顔」として利用したい青木・自民党参院幹事長は小泉氏支持を表明した。

      しかも、橋本派の所属議員3人が立候補の意思を表明、事態はさらに混乱した。結局、藤井元運輸相が出馬することになったが、所属議員全員が藤井氏に投票するか疑問だ。

      堀内派も混乱している。会長の堀内総務会長は反小泉だったが、今は小泉氏支持を表明している。江藤・亀井派の亀井前政調会長、高村派の高村元外相も立候補した。

      小泉氏が第1回投票で過半数を獲得できなければ、小泉氏と次点の候補との間で決選投票が行われる。その場合、反小泉勢力が結束して小泉再選を阻む可能性もあるが、今回の総裁選ではそのような事態は考えにくい。

      小泉氏は総裁選ばかりでなく、内閣改造、党執行部の指名にも派閥の影響を排除すると公約している。これは自民党の派閥政治の弊害をなくすために絶対に守られなければならない。重要なことは、総裁選の投票は派閥でなく個人の決断で行うことである。