Fresh hopes for Koizumi's goals

小泉新総裁への期待

The fact that he enjoyed support from across factional lines is a good omen for the LDP — and the nation. A faction's size no longer counts as much as it once did. Nor does it mean much to local politicians or industry lobbies. This should make the LDP more open and more attuned to public expectations.

In terms of policy, Mr. Koizumi's re-election as LDP president means his reform agenda has received a fresh mandate from his party. During the campaign he said he will "transform the LDP into a reform-oriented party." The challenge ahead is to translate that pledge into action.

The improving economy contributed to his triumph, taking some of the sting out of his "no pain, no growth" initiative. In its monthly economic report for September, the government said the economy is moving toward recovery thanks to robust exports and business investment. Meanwhile, prior to voting day, the Nikkei index hit the 10,000 level for the first time in 15 months.

But these recovery signs mostly reflect growth in export demand and progress in business restructuring, not results of structural reform. To produce results Mr. Koizumi must do much more, such as promoting deregulation to create jobs and spur private demand, and restore stability to the financial system.

Stimulating the economy through stepped-up spending — a course proposed by the three other candidates — is not an option. Mr. Koizumi's victory is a reminder that debt-financed public-works investment is no longer the panacea for an economic slump. The right course to take is to promote industrial reform without relying heavily on such investment.

Given persistent deflation, getting the economy back on its feet requires invigorating consumer spending, not just corporate activity. It is essential to ease or erase the popular feeling of economic insecurity by revamping the deficit-ridden health-care and pension systems. In particular, saving the national pension program from bankruptcy is an urgent priority.

With the nation's population aging at an accelerated pace, the prime minister must tackle tax reform. He must address the question of when and how to raise the consumption tax so as to cover rising social security costs while cutting the huge budget deficit. However, he seems determined not to change the tax rate while in office.

Another crucial question is how Mr. Koizumi will proceed with his plans for privatization of highway corporations and postal services. One important clue is that a number of key members of anti-Koizumi factions voted for him. It is unclear, though, whether this will prove a setback or a boost to privatization, for the ballots cast for him do not necessarily signify support for his reform initiative.

The same thing can be said about rank-and-file members of anti-Koizumi groups who voted for him. It would be unconscionable if they supported his re-election while opposing his policies. But if they actually accepted his policies as well, then Mr. Koizumi would have nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Backing his reforms means, among other things, eliminating political meddling by special-interest legislators with cozy ties to government offices and industry lobbies. If administrative transparency is enhanced, it will become difficult to maintain such ties. In his second term as LDP president, Mr. Koizumi has his work cut out to terminate the politics of pork.

With the leadership contest over, the prime minister is expected to call a general election in November. Having consolidated his political base in the party, he seems more confident than ever of his ability to govern. A new Cabinet lineup should tell where his reform agenda will go from here.

The Japan Times Weekly
Sept. 27, 2003
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      首相が派閥の枠を超えて支持されたのは、自民党にとって、日本にとってよい前兆である。

      最近の経済回復も小泉再選を後押しした。政府発表の9月の月例経済報告は、輸出、設備投資の回復で、景気が持ち直す動きがあるとの認識を示した。

      しかし、これらの回復への動きは輸出の増加と企業リストラの進展によるもので、構造改革とは関係ない。小泉首相は雇用を創出し、民間需要を刺激し、金融システムを安定化するためさらなる規制緩和を推進せねばならない。

      財政出動による景気刺激策は取るべきでない。赤字国債発行による公共投資は経済停滞の万能の解決策にならない。それよりも、公共投資に依存しない産業改革を進めるべきだ。

      デフレのなかで経済回復を図るには、設備投資だけでなく個人消費を活性化することが必要である。そのためには、医療、年金制度を改革し、国民生活の不安を取り除くことだ。

      社会の高齢化が加速するなかで、財政赤字を削減しながら社会保障給付費増加に対応するためには消費税増税を検討せねばならないが、首相は在任中には増税を行わない意向という。

      もうひとつの重要な問題は、首相が推進する道路公団と郵政事業の民営化である。しかし、首相が総裁選で圧勝しても、民営化が進捗するとは限らない。

      首相の構造改革に対する支持は、省庁や産業の利益を代表する族議員の政治介入を排除することにつながる。総裁2期目に入る小泉氏は利益誘導型政治を排除する責任がある。

      首相は11月に総選挙を行う意向という。党内の支持を取り付けた首相は統治能力に自信をつけたようだ。小泉改造内閣の陣容で構造改革の行方が占えるだろう。