Checkered economic recovery

不透明な景気見通し

The quarterly tankan survey, released Oct. 1, finds that business sentiment among large manufacturers turned positive, though slightly, in September for the first time in 33 months. By contrast, the mood among non-manufacturers remained negative by a wide margin, although it improved somewhat. The overall outlook for three months ahead, involving large, midsize and small companies in all sectors, improved slightly.

The September tankan is yet another reminder that the economy is getting out of its prolonged slump and beginning to turn upward. Signs of recovery are discernible in the recent surge of the Nikkei stock average to the 10,000-point level, the robust expansion of gross domestic product in the April-June quarter and a decline in unemployment.

It should be noted, however, that the latest survey was taken mostly before the yen's exchange rate approached the ¥110 level to the dollar. So it can be reasonably assumed that business managers feel less confident than they did at the time of the poll.

Considering all these things, this much can be said: The recovery is likely to be slow and weak. Worse, it could lose momentum, depending on future developments in the U.S. economy and movements in the yen-dollar rate. In other words, the economy is far from the hoped-for recovery, one that is self-sustaining with domestic demand providing the main thrust of growth.

The performance gap between large manufacturers and non-manufacturers is reflected starkly in their different business perceptions. The confidence index for manufacturers improved to plus one, with the number of optimists slightly exceeding the number of pessimists. On the other hand, the reading for non-manufacturers stood at minus 13, almost unchanged from three months earlier. The figures for small and midsize manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms differed widely, by about 10 points. The gap is expected to narrow only slightly in the next three months.

Manufacturers and non-manufacturers differ widely in their earnings outlooks. While goods producers of all sizes anticipate double-digit, year-on-year growth in pretax profits for fiscal 2003, service providers expect single-digit increases.

The recovery in manufacturing is something to cheer about. Electronics companies are leading world markets. Carmakers are expanding sales in the United States and Europe, and pacing the technology race for low-pollution cars. Machine tool makers that support these sectors remain internationally competitive.

This indicates that the manufacturing sector can continue to offer an array of high-value materials and products on the global market, despite the shift of production to low-cost countries. In this sense, their recovery reflects the ceaseless efforts at technological and managerial reform.

By contrast, non-manufacturing industries such as construction, real estate, distribution, electric power, banking and insurance, have yet to pass more rigorous tests of competition. These sectors have grown in an insular market relying on domestic demand. Typical examples are general construction contractors that have shared public-works projects, plus power suppliers, bankers and insurers that have been protected by government regulations.

Now, distributors and insurers face tough competition from American and European giants. Yet, compared with manufacturers that have been exposed to international competition for decades, service companies are largely insulated from the rough and tumble world of global business.

Low productivity and poor efficiency in service industries are major weaknesses in the economy that are held partly responsible for maintaining a high-cost structure. To achieve a genuine recovery, it is essential that non-manufacturing companies make greater efforts to upgrade their operations in ways that strengthen their ability to meet global competition.

The Japan Times Weekly
Oct. 11, 2003
(C) All rights reserved

      企業の景況感を示す業況判断指数（DI）は、大企業の製造業が、33ヵ月ぶりに改善してプラスに転じた。大企業の非製造業は少し改善したが、大幅マイナスだった。12月までの3ヵ月間にわたる全部門の大、中、小企業の景気見通しは僅かに改善した。

      ただ、9月短観では、最近の1ドル110円レベルへの円高の影響は織り込まれておらず、企業の現在の景況感は悪化していると思われる。

      急速な力強い景気回復は期待できず、米経済、為替相場の動向によって失速する恐れもある。

      製造業では、景気が良いと判断した企業の割合は悪いと答えた企業の割合を僅かに上回ってプラス1となったが、非製造業ではマイナス13と横ばいだった。中小企業の製造業と非製造業では10ポイント程度の大きな差が出た。

      2003年度の税引前利益見通しについては、製造業が2桁成長を予想しているのに対し、非製造業は1桁成長を予想している。

      製造業では、自動車を始め、電気機械、工作機械部門が好調で、生産設備を低コスト国に移しながら、国産の高付加価値製品を世界市場に供給している。これは技術、経営革新のたまものだ。

      非製造業では、建設、不動産、流通、電力、銀行、保険部門は競争力不足である。公共投資に依存してきたゼネコン、政府の保護を受けてきた電力、銀行、保険業界などがよい例である。

      流通、保険業界は巨大欧米企業との競争に直面している。これらの業界も、製造業に比べれば国際競争にさらされることが少なかった。

      サービス産業の低生産性、低能率は高コスト構造の根本原因になっている。非製造業は国際競争に伍していけるよう、さらなる経営努力が必要だ。