A divine vessel takes flight

中国の有人宇宙飛行が成功

China's space program is probably the oldest in the world. Gunpowder was invented in China and, according to legend, a Ming Dynasty official named Wan Hu was the first man to try to make it to space: He tied himself to a chair with gunpowder-packed tubes attached. That effort ended in disaster. China resumed its space program a couple of centuries later, in 1958. In 1970, the country launched its first satellite and at least 70 more have followed.

The manned program was dropped in the early 1980s because it was considered an indulgence in a country that had better ways to spend its scare investment resources. The program resumed in 1992. While much of the progress was the result of hard work and homegrown research, the Chinese had help from Russia. The Shenzhou is based on the three-seat Russian Soyuz design, although it has been extensively modified. The country's taiko- nauts — derived from the Chinese word for space — underwent training in Russia.

While China was eager to trumpet its success, it was worried about failure. That is understandable: A 1995 satellite launch ended in tragedy. Thus the world was told to expect a launch between Oct. 15 and Oct. 17, and the mission details were omitted, including the name of the taikonaut. There was no live television coverage of the Oct. 15 liftoff or the return to Earth 21 hours later on Oct. 16 after 14 orbits.

A manned space program requires mastery of technology and science. It is another sign of China's re-emergence as a great nation. The launch came right on the heels of the Third Plenary Session of the 16th Chinese Communist Party Central Committee, which concluded Oct. 14. Some of the applause from the successful flight will be directed toward the party leadership. And while the official statistics surrounding China's space program are shrouded in secrecy, the prestige attached to the success of the effort makes it worth the reputed annual $1 billion to $2.2 billion price tag.

The program produces other benefits. The successful launch helps promote China's reputation as a low-cost provider of satellite launch services, which is a much needed source of revenue. From January 1995 to June 2001, China held 5 percent of the commercial satellite launch market, and earned $500 million. This launch should spur more clients to consider the Chinese program.

China's commercial successes could have a downside for its neighbors: Advances in the civilian space effort cannot help contributing to a country's military program. It is no surprise, then, that China's space program is under the direct control of the military. After all, the country's main long-range missile, the Long March, is pretty much interchangeable with its primary commercial launch vehicle. Money that helps support and sustain the civilian program is honing its edge in missile technology.

Claims that China's success portends another space race are science fiction. The United States' space budget dwarfs that of China and it remains far ahead in its space program. Moreover, China has shown that it is going to proceed at its pace, according to its priorities.

Still, Chinese officials should be asking themselves whether a manned space program is the best use of their limited funds. That is no reflection on the Chinese effort: Americans and Russians are doing the same. While the value of space exploration is beyond challenge, manned flights are another matter. If governments are going to pursue this course, it is better that they do so together. Joint efforts represent more efficient uses of money; they ensure that the results are the shared heritage of all mankind; and, perhaps most important, they head off misguided attempts to nationalize — or worse, militarize — space.

Those concerns should not be used to detract from China's accomplishments. But they do give us reason to ponder the ultimate objective of our journeys into space.

The Japan Times Weekly
Oct. 25, 2003
(C) All rights reserved

      1970年には第1号衛星を打ち上げた中国はその後、70個の衛星を打ち上げている。有人宇宙飛行計画は、1980年代初期に資金不足のため中止されたが、1992年に再開された。「神舟」はロシアの「ソユーズ」宇宙船を再設計したもので、これまでに4回の無人飛行が行われた。

      「神舟5号」は10月15日に打ち上げられ、周回軌道に乗り、地球を14周して16日、帰還した。打ち上げられたのは、中国共産党中央委員会の第3回全体会議が終了した翌日だった。計画の成功による国威の発揚で、年間10億から22億ドルといわれる宇宙関連予算も元が取れる。

      また、計画の成功は中国の低コスト商業衛星打ち上げビジネスを後押しする。1995年1月から2001年6月までに、中国は商業衛星打ち上げ市場の5パーセントを占め、5億ドルを稼いでいる。

      中国の宇宙開発計画は軍部の直接管理下にある。中国の長距離ミサイル「長征」は商業衛星打ち上げロケットと互換性がある。

      有人宇宙飛行に成功した中国は、さらに技術開発を続けるだろうが、宇宙開発をめぐる国際的競争が激化するというのはSF小説的憶測だ。米国の宇宙開発予算は比較にならないほど巨額で、技術的にも中国を凌駕している。

      有人宇宙飛行については各国が協力して計画を推進すべきだ。そうすれば、資金の効率的利用、研究結果の共有ができ、特定の国家による宇宙の独占、軍事利用を防ぐことができる。

      「神舟」の飛行の成功は宇宙開発の究極の目的について考えるよい機会である。