Getting out the vote

総選挙の焦点

Attention is riveted on whether a functioning two-party system will take root, with power changing hands alternately between the LDP and the DPJ. The question for smaller parties is whether they can assert their philosophies as a "third force."

If the election injects fresh air into the stuffy political climate that keeps old-fashioned campaign practices alive, it will be a milestone. In previous polls, many candidates campaigned largely on the strength of their local connections and family pedigrees. A two-party system, however, is predicated on a vigorous contest of beliefs and policies.

It is welcome, therefore, that campaigns are being conducted mostly along the lines of party "manifestos," or policy declarations. Policy-based campaigning ought to be matched by higher voter turnout. That is not assured, however, if the Upper House by-election in Saitama Prefecture on Oct. 26 is any guide. That election registered a turnout of less than 30 percent despite talk of an LDP-DPJ showdown. At issue were, and are, a range of domestic and international issues, including the rebuilding of Iraq and the North Korean nuclear threat as well as the economy.

A Lower House election is always a contest for power because, basically, a party that wins a majority or plurality forms a Cabinet. In reality, though, the LDP monopolized power from 1955 to 1993 because the Japan Socialist Party was too weak to challenge the governing party. In the 1996 election, in which the single-seat district/proportional representation system was introduced, Shinshinto (New Frontier Party) fought well but did not pose a real threat to the LDP. The same was true of the DPJ in the previous election of 2000.

But the merger of the DPJ and the Liberal Party, just a decade after the birth of a non-LDP coalition government, seems to have significantly improved the chances of a power transfer. To defeat the LDP, however, the DPJ must increase its strength dramatically. The DPJ held 137 seats, compared with the LDP's 247, in the 480-seat Lower House prior to its dissolution. The LDP, while aiming to secure a majority, says it will maintain its coalition with New Komeito and the New Conservative Party.

Still, the LDP has its problems. It has yet to break its cozy ties to government bureaucracy and private industry — ties that are hindering Prime Minister Koizumi's initiative to root out the politics of pork. Without a government change, power is apt to corrupt. You only have to look at the list of LDP legislators who have been arrested or forced to resign for their involvement in scandals since the last general election.

The DPJ is attacking the LDP's "bureaucratic administration." It has spelled out a comprehensive reform program that would be carried out in stages within 300 days of the party taking power. The question is how voters will respond.

The DPJ-LP merger seemed inevitable because the single-seat system is designed to create a two-party system. To muster broader support, however, the new DPJ will need to promote campaign cooperation with the Social Democratic Party, which competes with the DPJ in as many as 41 districts. The Japanese Communist Party, perhaps trying to form a "third pole," is fielding candidates in all districts.

In the proportional representation bloc of the last election, the opposition parties combined collected more votes than the governing parties. In many single-seat districts, however, opposition candidates lost to unified governing-party candidates. The message is that prospects for a government change would have further increased if opposition parties had mapped out a joint campaign strategy against the Koizumi administration.

But will voters go to the polls? The fact is that a vast number of them do not support any party. The Nov. 9 election will turn a new page in Japan's political history if it succeeds in persuading people to exercise their democratic right.

The Japan Times Weekly
Nov. 8, 2003
(C) All rights reserved

      日本で「2大政党制」が根付くか、小政党が｢第3勢力｣として存在感を示せるかも注目されている。

      総選挙が停滞した政治に新風を吹き込むことができれば、重要な転換点となろう。従来の総選挙では、強い地縁を持つ候補、 2世・3世候補が優勢だったが、「2大政党制」が争点になる選挙では政策論争が重要になる。

      1955年から1993年までは自民党が政権を独占した。野党の日本社会党は自民党に挑戦するには力不足だった。1996年、最初の小選挙区・比例代表並立制の総選挙が行われたが、新進党は自民党への脅威にならなかった。同じことが2000年総選挙の民主党にも言える。

      非自民政権誕生10年後、民主党・自由党の合併で、政権交代の現実的可能性が出てきた。自民党を破るには、民主党は勢力を拡大しなければならない。解散前の衆院（480議席）では、民主党の議席は137、自民党は247だった。自民党は、衆院で過半数の議席確保を目標とするが公明党、保守党との連立政権を維持する考えだ。

      自民党の問題は、官界、財界との癒着を断ち切れず、小泉首相の下で利益誘導型政治を根絶する計画が進んでいないことだ。

      民主党は勢力拡大のために41選挙区で争っている社民党との選挙協力を進める必要がある。

      前回総選挙の比例区では、野党合計で与党3党よりも多く得票したが、多くの小選挙区で野党候補が与党統一候補に敗れた。野党陣営が小泉政権に対し共同選挙作戦を進めたならば、政権交代の可能性が高まったであろう。

      問題は投票率だ。有権者の多くは無党派層で、今回総選挙で投票率が高まれば、日本政治の歴史が変わる可能性がある。