Little hope for six-nation talks

6ヵ国協議の見通し

North Korea has declared that if the United States lifts its sanctions against Pyongyang and removes its designation of North Korea as a terrorist-supporting state, then it is prepared to freeze its nuclear program, including development of the peaceful use of nuclear energy. But Washington has countered that a pledge to freeze is not in the cards and that, before anything else, North Korea must scrap its entire nuclear program in a verifiable and irreversible manner.

A North Korean freeze of its nuclear program was decided 10 years ago in a framework agreement with the United States. As a result, Pyongyang did halt the operation of its graphite-moderated reactors. But then it resumed operating them last year. The basic stance of the United States is that it can no longer offer any compensation to North Korea for merely saying again that it is going to freeze its nuclear program.

It appears that the United States has agreed to a resumption of the six-nation talks — in which a freeze of North Korea's nuclear program is to be on the agenda — to enable China, which is playing an intermediary role, to save face and to support Japan and South Korea, which want the talks restarted. The United States has been unable to indicate a clear direction on the issue because of a divide within the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush between hardliners who want to strengthen sanctions against North Korea and moderates — such as Secretary of State Colin Powell — who advocate that the six-nation talks should be promoted.

A compromise reached in the administration appears to be that the talks should resume but that the freeze should not be seen as the starting point for denuclearization, as Pyongyang demands. Rather it should be the starting point for the abandonment of its nuclear program.

At the end of the previous round of talks last August, North Korea refused to issue a document and stated that it had no interest in continuing the six-nation talks. After that, however, Pyongyang accepted visits by Chinese dignitaries who met with General Secretary Kim Jong Il, and it permitted a delegation from the United States consisting of nuclear experts and North Korean affairs to inspect its nuclear facilities.

These developments were seen as an expression of North Korea's interest in continuing the talks. As for the abduction issue involving Japanese nationals, North Korea unofficially said that if the five abductees who have returned to Japan went to Pyongyang, their family members would be permitted to return to Japan with them. Undoubtedly, this was part of North Korea's ploy to get the talks going again.

It is not certain how long the talks will last. China, which will serve as the chair, tried to get the parties concerned to agree on issuing a document but gave up in the face of the deep-seated differences between the United States and North Korea. Yet, after six months of behind-the-scenes bargaining, the countries concerned must have made their positions pretty clear to one another. This allows for the possibility that, in the coming round, the parties will make sincere efforts to narrow the gaps among them.

Recently it has become evident that Pakistan gave lessons to North Korea in uranium-enrichment technology. The North Korean side, however, told the visiting U.S. delegation that it was not enriching uranium, and it will most likely repeat the denial at the six-nation talks. Graphite-moderated reactors and reprocessing were frozen in the framework agreement between the United States and North Korea, but this time the issue is the abolition of North Korea's whole nuclear program, including uranium enrichment. If Pyongyang goes on denying that it is enriching uranium, there is a danger that the talks will simply return to square one.

The Japan Times Weekly
Feb. 14, 2004
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      北朝鮮は、米が北朝鮮への制裁を停止しテロ支援国家としての指定を解除すれば、平和利用目的の原子力開発も含め核開発計画を凍結するという。しかし米は、北朝鮮は核凍結でなく、検証可能な、後戻りできない核放棄をすべきと主張している。

      北朝鮮は核凍結を定めた10年前の米朝枠組み合意の下で、黒鉛減速炉の運転を停止したが、昨年運転を再開した。米国の基本的立場は、核凍結の約束だけでは援助に応じられないということだ。

      米は、中国、日本、韓国の立場に配慮して協議再開に同意したといわれる。ブッシュ政権内の政策をめぐる対立のため、協議についての明確な方針は示していないが、まず北朝鮮に核放棄を求める方針を固めたようだ。

      前回協議では、北朝鮮は協議継続に関心を示さなかったが、その後中国要人、米国の核問題専門家の訪問を受け入れ、協議継続へ傾いた。

      日本人拉致問題について、北朝鮮はすでに帰国した被害者5人が平壌まで迎えに来れば、残された家族を帰すと非公式に伝えてきた。北朝鮮が協議を再開させるための作戦だろう。

      前回の協議で中国は、参加各国に合意文書の発表を迫ったが、米朝間の意見の相違のため発表にいたらなかった。

      しかし、その後の舞台裏の交渉で、参加国は互いに立場を明確にしたに違いない。次回協議では立場の相違を克服する努力が求められる。

      北朝鮮がパキスタンからウラン濃縮技術を導入したのは明白だが、北朝鮮側は米国の訪朝団にウラン濃縮は行っていないと伝えた。黒鉛減速炉の運転と核燃料棒再処理は米朝枠組み合意で凍結されたが、今回の問題はウラン濃縮も含めた核放棄である。もし北朝鮮がウラン濃縮を否定すれば、協議は振り出しに戻る可能性がある。