Verdict on Koizumi beckons

小泉政権に対する国民の審判

Nevertheless, the marathon session proved efficient, with almost all of the key government bills voted into law. These include a set of bills related to military emergency legislation, including one designed to evacuate residents when the country is attacked or faces an imminent attack. A bill for bolstering smaller banks through "pre-emptive" cash infusions was enacted.

The governing parties may have reason to congratulate themselves on the legislative record, but the ways in which they railroaded a number of important bills smacked of arrogance. The banking bill, for example, was rushed through the Upper House without putting it to a committee vote, although there was nothing technically wrong with that.

Likewise, the pension-reform package was rammed through an Upper House committee in a melee reminiscent of brawls that had rocked the Diet during the Cold War era. A pension scandal — failures by several political heavyweights to pay into the national pension fund — led to mutual mudslinging between the governing and opposition parties. As a result, the debate bogged down, leaving many questions unanswered.

The pension imbroglio further eroded public confidence in politics. Opposition parties volunteered to disclose the payment records of their members, but the Liberal-Democratic Party refused to do so on dubious grounds of privacy. At the very least, all candidates in the Upper House election should come clean about their payment.

The government contributed to the confusion in its own ways. It had said, incorrectly, that future corporate retirees would receive pensions equal to roughly 50 percent of average worker income. It is now clear — if the government plan holds — that payouts will steadily decline below that level. A record low birthrate, announced after the bill was cleared, exposed serious flaws in the reform blueprint.

Iraq received as much attention as the pension issue, but the government failed by a wide margin to convince a public critical of deploying the Self-Defense Forces in a country embroiled in conflict. The government rationale for the deployment — that SDF troops will perform humanitarian work in "non-combat areas" — proved far removed from reality, as evidenced by rocket attacks near the SDF camp in Samawah.

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi stayed the course, although he was much criticized for pushing his Iraq policy without fully explaining it. He seemed to reinforce public skepticism when he promised U.S. President George W. Bush earlier this month that SDF troops would join a multinational force after the June 30 handover of sovereignty.

Previously, the government had said that SDF participation in a multinational force could be considered unconstitutional because it might involve the use of force. Now it rules out such a possibility, saying the SDF soldiers, while working under a "unified command," will carry on their humanitarian mission under Japanese laws and directives. Further clarification is needed, however, to convince the public.

The opposition parties, accusing the Koizumi Cabinet of committing "grave mistakes" in domestic and foreign affairs, submitted a motion of no confidence in the Lower House on June 15. Although the motion was rejected, Mr. Koizumi would do well to remember that there is criticism from those in his party about the way he is running the country.

To be sure, he enjoys high approval ratings of more than 50 percent — something rare for a prime minister in his third year in office.

His tough stance seems to reflect the political battle royal that lies ahead: the July 11 Upper House election, with official campaigning starting June 24. Voters will likely make their decisions largely on the basis of past parliamentary debates and their results — decisions that will add up to a popular verdict on the Koizumi administration.

The Japan Times Weekly
June 26, 2004
(C) All rights reserved

      有事関連法案や、銀行に公的資金を投入するための金融法案など、政府提出の重要法案はほとんどが成立した。しかし与党には、金融法案を委員会で採決せず、参院本会議で強行可決するなど強引な戦術が目立った。

      年金改革法案も、参院の委員会で野党が強く抵抗する中で強行可決された。有力議員による国民年金保険料未納問題での与野党の泥仕合で、重要案件の審議が十分できなかった。

      年金保険料未納問題は政治に対する国民の不信を増幅させた。

      政府の発表も年金問題をめぐる混乱に輪をかけた。たとえば、厚生年金の標準給付額は将来にわたって現役世代の平均収入の50%を維持することになっていたが、実際の給付額は受給が始まってからも下がり続け、50％を下回ることになる。

      イラク問題では、政府は「非戦闘地域」で人道援助を行っている自衛隊の活動について国民を納得させる説明ができなかった。小泉首相は今月初め、 ブッシュ米大統領に対しイラクへの主権委譲後に自衛隊を多国籍軍に参加させることを約束、国民の疑惑を深めた。

      政府はこれまで、自衛隊の多国籍軍参加は武力行使につながり、憲法違反のおそれがあるという立場を取ってきた。しかし今は立場を変えて、自衛隊は多国籍軍の「統一指揮下で」日本国の法規に従って人道援助を行うとしている。この点について政府は説明責任がある。

      野党は15日、国内・外交政策の誤りを理由に小泉内閣不信任案を衆院に提出したが、反対多数で否決された。

      7月11日の参院選では、有権者はこれまでの国会審議などを念頭に置いて投票する。それが国民の小泉政権に対する審判になる。