North Korea's ticking time bomb

北朝鮮の脱北者問題

This is the third time that North Koreans have sought asylum at a Japanese facility in China. In May 2002, five people entered the consulate general in Shenyang; in February 2003, four others took refuge at the Beijing school. The latest group of 29 — 11 men, 15 women and three children — is the largest yet to seek protection at any diplomatic mission or foreign school in the country.

Reports show that the exodus from North Korea has accelerated since 2000, when those who entered South Korea via China and other countries numbered 583. The number jumped to 1,140 in 2001 and to 1,281 in 2002. The figure for this year is expected to hit a new record. Case-by-case numbers of asylum-seekers have increased markedly, as illustrated by the latest incident.

Also notable is the diversification of escape routes. In earlier years, most escapees went to South Korea from China. Now, however, more and more go first to Southeast Asian countries from China — a trend that appears to reflect a tightened crackdown by Chinese authorities. In late July, about 460 people, divided into two groups, left Vietnam for South Korea.

It is unknown how many North Korean escapees are living in China. Estimates range widely from several tens of thousands to about 300,000. Thus far South Korea has accepted about 5,000. According to Unification Minister Chung Dong Young, roughly 10,000 North Koreans will likely enter the country in the next several years.

North Korea has only itself to blame for the exodus. The country was hit hard by famine beginning in the mid-1990s — largely the result of economic policy failures — and by severe floods in rural regions. An untold number of people have died from hunger, and more than a million are said to face starvation.

International food aid is found very much wanting. The World Food Program, a U.N. affiliate, said in July that 6.5 million North Koreans needed assistance, but that only about 1.8 million could be reached because aid had been drastically cut due to fund shortages. Earlier this year, Japan provided 125,000 tons of food, including rice, as the first batch of humanitarian aid that it had committed to North Korea. According to the WFP representative in Pyongyang, that amount is sufficient to feed about 6.5 million people. Reportedly the food situation in North Korea has improved somewhat, yet many people continue to flee the country. This suggests that a large part of the population suffer from chronic hunger.

In the view of a former U.S. State Department official for North Korean affairs, however, the problem with food aid is not quantitative but systemic — that is, an inefficient distribution system. The official, who visited North Korea last month, pointed out that much of the aid provided does not get to the people who need it.

Two years ago, Pyongyang launched a string of economic reforms to introduce market transactions, albeit on a limited scale. As a result, prices went up, but wages did not rise as much.

Improving the lot of ordinary North Koreans should be the top priority of the North Korean leadership, yet Pyongyang keeps spending inordinate amounts of money on its programs to develop nuclear bombs and other weapons of mass destruction. In defiance of international opinion, it is playing a dangerous game of nuclear brinkmanship.

So far, North Korean responses to the escapee crisis have been not only cosmetic but misguided. Authorities have not taken any fundamental action to stem the tide; they have tightened border controls, blaming South Korea and other countries for encouraging defections.

It seems certain that the number of escapees will increase until North Korea works out drastic remedies. The fundamental solution is to improve the well-being of its people. Pyongyang should know that endless streams of distressed people fleeing abroad represent a time bomb ticking in its midst.

The Japan Times Weekly
Sept. 18, 2004
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      脱北者の集団が中国の日本関係施設に駆け込んだのはこれが3度目で、今回の集団はこれまでで最大である。

      中国などから韓国入りした脱北者は2000年には583人、2001年に1140人、2002年には1281人に増加。2004年の人数は新記録になりそうだ。

      韓国入りする経路は、これまでは中国経由が大部分だったが、最近は東南アジア経由が多くなっている。これは中国当局の国境取締強化のためと思われる。7月下旬には、約460人の北朝鮮人がベトナムから韓国入りした。

      中国には数万人から30万人の脱北者が生活しているとされる。韓国はこれまでに、5000人の脱北者を受け入れており、今後数年間でさらに1万人を受け入れると予想される。

      北朝鮮は1990年代半ばから飢饉、洪水に襲われ、多数の人たちが餓死、100万人以上が餓死の危機に瀕しているという。

      国連世界食糧計画によれば、北朝鮮では650万人が食糧援助を必要としているが、資金不足のため援助が行き渡るのは180万人という。

      北朝鮮は2年前、限定的な市場改革を実施したが、価格は上昇する一方、賃金はそれに見合った上昇をしていない。

      北朝鮮は、食料不足を解決せず核兵器など大量破壊兵器開発に膨大な予算を支出して、「核の瀬戸際政策」を展開している。

      脱北者問題に対する北朝鮮の対応は誤っている。抜本的対策を取らず、韓国などに対して脱北を扇動していると非難を浴びせている。

      北朝鮮が国民の生活水準を改善しない限り、脱北者の流出は続くだろう。この問題は、北朝鮮が抱える時限爆弾といってよい。