Shadow over the DPJ

民主党の内紛

Mr. Okada, who led the party to success in July's Upper House election, was formally re-elected at a special convention Sept. 13. Mr. Tatsuo Kawabata, the former Diet affairs chief, took up the No. 2 post of secretary-general, succeeding Mr. Hirohisa Fujii, Mr. Ozawa's right-hand man. The "next Cabinet," which maintains a balance of factional power, includes two former presidents, Mr. Naoto Kan and Mr. Yukio Hatoyama, and Mr. Takahiro Yokomichi, formerly a key member of the defunct Japan Socialist Party. Still, the new lineup without Mr. Ozawa raises questions about whether the DPJ will be able to put its divided house in order and develop a coherent policy agenda.

The big question is whether the Democrats will be able to beat the Liberal-Democratic Party during Mr. Okada's two-year term. As things stand, that does not seem very likely. The reason is that Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi will not call a snap general election unless some unforeseen political crisis forces him to dissolve the Lower House. Still, Mr. Okada's DPJ can use the next two years to refine its policy program and expand its electoral base in the countryside.

The starting point should be his "2015 Vision for the Revival of Japan," which spells out basic policies in key areas such as foreign and security affairs, social security and economic management. Regarding security policy, Mr. Okada calls for more active participation in U.N. peacekeeping operations, setting his sights on an eventual constitutional amendment. He risks reducing the DPJ's appeal to voters, however, if he tries to bring his party closer to the LDP.

One important reason the LDP suffered a defeat in July is that many voters were wary of Mr. Koizumi's heavy "tilt" toward the Japan-U.S. alliance, particularly of his solid endorsement of the U.S. decision to invade Iraq and Japan's subsequent troop deployment in that country.

The test for Mr. Okada is to bring his party into line over divisive issues, particularly foreign and security policy, and constitutional revision. As for pension reform, the party is calling for the creation of an integrated pension system. The question is how to cover the growing fund shortage. The DPJ is proposing a raise in the consumption tax, which seems inevitable. The harder part is to convince a public wary of rising social security costs.

In the style of politics, too, the DPJ should set itself apart from the LDP. Under Mr. Koizumi the LDP has broken the back of "pork-barrel" politics, as seen in the rollback of public-works spending, but money politics remains a potent force, as shown by revelations about an illicit campaign donation from a dental group. The DPJ discloses its campaign finances on its Web site and Mr. Okada has revealed all of his public-expense accounts.

The DPJ plans to field its candidates in all of the 300 single-seat districts in the next general election. That shows Mr. Okada's resolve to win a majority in the Lower House. But if the ballot is not held during his term, he may have difficulty keeping his party together. A number of younger Democrats may challenge him in a presidential race two years from now. Mr. Kan and Mr. Hatoyama — foreign minister and land minister, respectively, in the shadow Cabinet — may well try a comeback.

The biggest uncertainty for Mr. Okada, however, is the friction with Mr. Ozawa, who is arguably the most powerful of his potential rivals. The refusal by Mr. Fujii to stay on as secretary-general seems to mirror Mr. Ozawa's desire to keep a distance from Mr. Okada.

Mr. Ozawa advocates a more positive approach to collective security than Mr. Okada. The difference should be ironed out through open discussion. If Mr. Ozawa stays on the sidelines as a kibitzer, that will not be the best way for him to serve the party's interests. As Mr. Okada points out, the DPJ must play like an all-star baseball team in order to take power.

The Japan Times Weekly
Sept. 25, 2004
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      7月の参院選で民主党を躍進させた岡田氏は、13日の党大会で代表に再選された。小沢氏の腹心、藤井裕久幹事長の後任には川端達夫前国会対策委員長が就任した。「影の内閣」には、菅直人、鳩山由紀夫両元代表、旧社会党系の横路孝広氏が名を連ねている。

      問題は岡田氏の代表としての2年間の任期中に、民主党が自民党を打倒できるか否かだが、その期間に小泉純一郎首相が衆院解散・総選挙に打って出る可能性は低い。

      民主党は今後、よりよい政策綱領を策定し、地方での支持を強化すればよい。その出発点は、党の外交、安保、社会保障、経済運営などの基本政策を明らかにした「2015年、日本復活ビジョン」だ。

      参院選で自民党が大きく後退したのは、小泉首相の日米同盟への急傾斜、特に米軍主導のイラク戦争の支持、自衛隊のイラク派遣について国民の警戒感が高まったからである。

      岡田氏の課題は、外交、安保、改憲などの問題について党内の意思統一を図ることである。また、民主党は年金制度の一元化を求め、財源不足を補うため消費税増税を提案しているが、国民をどう説得するかが問題だ。

      民主党は次回総選挙で、衆院の議席過半数獲得をねらうが、岡田氏の代表任期中に総選挙が行われなければ、党内統一は困難になる。

      小沢氏と岡田氏の意見の相違は公開討論で解決すべきだ。小沢氏の指導体制不参加は党の利益に反する。岡田氏の言うように、民主党が政権を奪取するには野球のオールスター・チームのように一丸となって行動せねばならない。