Worthy of the term 'opposition'?
(From The Japan Times Sept. 20 issue)

第一野党としての民主党の課題

    In the election, the party's strength dwindled from 177 seats to 113, while Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's Liberal-Democratic Party increased its strength from 212 seats to 296 in the 480-member Lower House. Since the governing coalition of the LDP and New Komeito holds more than two-thirds of the Lower House seats and thus may pass into law any bill that the Upper House rejects, the DPJ's role of saving the governing coalition from its excesses is essential.

    In a party presidential election Sept. 17, Mr. Maehara, 43, defeated Mr. Naoto Kan, who had served as the party president twice, by a narrow margin of 96-94. Maehara's win over the 58-year-old veteran indicates that the party has opted for a fresh start under a younger leader.

    Mr. Maehara made it clear that, in choosing party executives and forming a shadow Cabinet, he will attach importance to meritocracy and put "the right person in the right place." He picked the 58-year-old former party president Mr. Yukio Hatoyama as secretary-general and appointed younger members to posts in his shadow Cabinet. The average age of this shadow Cabinet is 49.8, compared with 56 for his predecessor Katsuya Okada's and 58.2 for Mr. Koizumi's official Cabinet. But if the new shadow Cabinet does not prove strong enough to counter Mr. Koizumi's Cabinet in future Diet deliberations, criticism from and friction with veteran party members may arise.

    The DPJ's election defeat is attributed to Mr. Okada's failure to offer a clear counterproposal to the postal-service privatization bills pushed by Mr. Koizumi. Mr. Maehara thinks the failure was due to the party's ties with labor unions opposed to postal privatization. Consequently, he said his party will break away from labor union and other vested interests. But this is easier said than done.

    It is a fact that labor unions did contribute somewhat to increasing the strength of the DPJ in past elections. If he is true to his word, Mr. Maehara will need to work out a strategy to win in elections without relying on these votes. Yet, relying solely on floating votes will be a difficult path to tread, as the most recent election results show.

    The DPJ lost big in urban areas, especially Tokyo, where floating votes played a decisive role. In the capital, the DPJ won 4 percent of the seats against the LDP's 92 percent.

    Mr. Maehara says he will turn his party into a "fighting organization" to counter Mr. Koizumi's LDP. The DPJ needs to develop feasible counterproposals to policy measures of the government and the LDP on important issues such as postal reform, financial revival, reform of social security including pension and medical services as well as measures to deal with the graying of society and declining national population. But what is more important is presenting an overall antithesis to the LDP's general policy line, which has been subsumed under the catch phrases of "reform" and "small government."

    The DPJ, too, has been projecting itself as a party for reform. Mr. Maehara needs to explain in plain words to the public how the reform his party aims to achieve is different from that pursued by the LDP. The DPJ needs to create a total picture of the society that it hopes to help create.

    Mr. Maehara says he wants to establish "efficient government" by slashing public works and waste in bureaucracy and to divert government money to create a firm "safety net" through improved education and social security. He must not only develop detailed measures to realize his ideas but also present them in short and clear-cut concepts that win the hearts of people.

    Mr. Maehara differentiated himself from Mr. Koizumi by making it clear that he will not visit Yasukuni Shrine. But his view on the Constitution is likely to provoke criticism from pacifist-minded people. He favors abolishing Article 9, Section 2, which bans possession of land, sea and air forces as well as other war-making capabilities, and favors having the Self-Defense Forces act overseas in "collective defense" if necessary, including participation in a multinational force.

    In this regard, the people may see no difference between the DPJ and the LDP. Conflict between Mr. Maehara and pacifist forces within his party could become unavoidable. Mr. Maehara has taken on tough challenges with his new post.

The Japan Times Weekly
Oct. 1, 2005
(C) All rights reserved

    小泉首相率いる自民党は衆院の議席数を改選前の212から296に急増させたが、民主党は177から113に激減。全議席数絶対過半数を獲得した自民・公明の連立与党政権は、法案が参院で否決されても、衆院で可決成立できる。民主党は自公の国会での暴挙を阻止する責任を担っている。

    9月17日の民主党代表選で前原氏（43）は、菅直人元代表（58）を96-94の僅差で破った。新代表は鳩山由紀夫元代表を幹事長に、若手議員を「次の内閣」のメンバーに任命した。

    民主党惨敗の原因は、岡田克也前代表が小泉政権の郵政民営化案に明確な対案となる改革案を示せなかったことだ。民主党の支援団体は民営化に反対する労働組合だ。前原氏は、問題はそこにあるとして、党と労組のしがらみを断つべく、脱労組路線の考えを示したが、実際には容易ではない。

    新代表は今後、過去の選挙で民主党の勢力拡大にひと役買った労組の組織票に依存しない選挙戦略を構築せねばならない。

    前原氏は小泉自民党に対抗する「闘う民主党」を標榜している。民主党にとって重要なのは、郵政民営化、財政再建などの政策課題と共に、自民党のスローガンである「改革」「小さな政府」に対抗する総合的対案を提示することだ。民主党も改革路線を強調しているが、前原氏は両党の改革路線の相違点を国民に分かりやすく説明する必要がある。

    彼は靖国神社不参拝を表明して小泉氏との相違を強調しているが、戦力不保持を定めた憲法9条2項の削除を求め、海外での自衛隊による集団自衛権行使の容認を主張している。

    この点で、民主党と自民党の路線は本質的に変わらないようだ。前原氏と党内の平和主義派の軋轢が不可避になる可能性もあり、彼は党代表に就任することで、難問を背負うことになった。