A vacuum in Israeli politics
(From The Japan Times Jan. 10 issue)

イスラエルの政治空白

    For all his shortcomings, Mr. Sharon has been a leader with a vision, capable of making — and sticking with — unpopular decisions. It is precisely this characteristic that is most needed in the Middle East today.

    It is, sadly, in ever shrinking supply.

    Mr. Sharon suffered a minor stroke Dec. 18. A small hole in his heart allowed a blood clot to travel from the heart and briefly block the flow of blood to part of the brain. However, it quickly dissolved and left no permanent damage.

    The prime minister resisted the release of his medical records, insisting that he was in good health.

    He was released from the hospital two days later and doctors gave him anti-blood-clotting injections to prepare for surgery, scheduled for Jan. 5, to repair the hole in his heart.

    That treatment may have helped cause the massive stroke that felled Mr. Sharon on Jan. 4, a day before his scheduled surgery, when he collapsed at his farm.

    Three rounds of emergency surgery left the prime minister in a medically induced coma, but it was unclear if he would emerge from the coma and what condition he would be in if he did.

    The stroke removes the single most important actor in Israeli politics.

    In November, Mr. Sharon had bolted from the conservative Likud Party that he founded and established a new party, Kadima. The move reflected the prime minister's growing frustration with the rightwing of Likud, which had opposed his unilateral withdrawal of Israeli soldiers and settlements from the Gaza Strip.

    At the same time, the elevation of Mr. Amir Peretz, a leftist, to head the Labor Party, and Mr. Peretz's decision to withdraw Labor from the governing coalition, shifted the balance of power within the Israeli government.

    Sensing that the center was empty, Mr. Sharon rushed to fill the void by forming Kadima, along with moderates of both parties. The gamble was a success: Recent opinion polls show Kadima leading all other parties in the national elections scheduled for March 28.

    Mr. Sharon's stroke is a blow to its prospects, but even polls taken after his illness show it in front. One had Kadima winning 39 of 120 Parliament seats under acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert — a few seats less than it polled under Sharon but still more than twice as many as the next party, and more than enough to lead the next government.

    That strong showing could be a result of sympathy for Mr. Sharon. Mr. Olmert is not the politician Mr. Sharon is — no one is — and may not be able to sustain support during a tough campaign.

    He is not inexperienced, though. Mr. Olmert, the former mayor of Jerusalem, has had a long political career. Still, he is vulnerable from the right and left.

    Like Mr. Sharon, he has moved to the center in recent years, raising questions about his commitment to a durable peace. At the same time, he does not have the prime minister's military and security credentials. So he is vulnerable to charges of opportunism.

    Israelis will look for continuity from whoever succeeds Mr. Sharon. The leadership in Kadima understands that and has vowed to continue Mr. Sharon's policies.

    The real question is whether anybody can.

    Only an Israeli leader with Mr. Sharon's security credentials has the credibility to make the retreat he did from Gaza. A similar personal history shielded former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, until he was struck down by an assassin. No one else shares that legacy.

    Moreover, steps toward peace require a Palestinian counterpart who can deliver the security that is the precondition for Israeli withdrawals from the West Bank. Mr. Sharon's record — and his unwavering certainty — compensated for the weakness of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Mr. Sharon's absence will demand that Palestinian leaders reassert themselves as credible partners in peace. Thus far that has not been possible.

    While Israel will remain focused on its internal politics, there will be intense scrutiny of the Palestinian election scheduled for Jan. 25.

    If the leadership that emerges is as weak and corrupt as the current one, Israelis are likely to lean farther to the right.

    A rejuvenated Palestinian leadership that is dominated by Hamas will be equally unnerving. Recent elections in the Palestinian territories were dominated by the hard-line group precisely because Palestinians saw a possible way to end the incompetence and corruption that condemns them to poverty and desperation.

    The tremendous uncertainty that dominates both sides of the Israeli-Palestinian equation virtually guarantees paralysis. It will take genuine leadership from both communities to move the peace process forward. There is little ground for optimism.

The Japan Times Weekly
Jan. 14, 2006
(C) All rights reserved

    シャロン氏は先月18日、軽度の脳卒中を起こして入院したが、2日後には退院した。今月5日には心臓の小さな穴をふさぐ手術を予定していたが、その前日に2度目の脳出血を起こした。氏は3回の緊急手術を受け、人為的昏睡状態に置かれた。

    氏は昨年11月、保守政党リクードを離党、新党カディマを結成した。その背景には、氏が推進したガザ地区のイスラエル入植地からの撤退に対するリクード右派の強硬な反対があった。

    同時に左派ペレツ新党首率いる労働党が連立政権から離脱、政権内での力関係に変化が生じた。そこでシャロン氏は両党の穏健派とともに中道政党カディマを結成した。最近の世論調査では、シャロン氏が倒れた後も、カディマは3月28日の議会選挙に向け、優勢を保っている。

    しかし首相代行に就任したオルメルト氏は激しい選挙戦で国民の支持を維持できるかどうか疑問だ。氏は元エルサレム市長で、政治経験は長いが中道への転向はここ数年、左派・右派から攻撃に対しては脆弱だ。

    同党指導部は、シャロン氏の政策を継続することを発表しているが、容易ではない。

    ヨルダン川西岸からの撤退の前提となる安全保障を実行するパレスチナ側の指導者の存在が、中東和平には不可欠だ。シャロン氏の断固たる態度はパレスチナ自治政府のアッバス議長の弱さを補っていた。シャロン氏の不在で、パレスチナ指導層には強い指導性を発揮することが求められる。

    25日に行われるパレスチナ議会選挙で強力な体制が確立されなければ、イスラエルは右傾化するだろう。パレスチナ新体制で過激派ハマスが主流となれば、それも不安要因となる。

    イスラエル・パレスチナの政治的不安定で中東和平問題がまひするのは確実だ。同問題を前進させるには、双方に真の政治的指導性が求められる。楽観は許されない。