Mr. Koizumi is running on empty
(From The Japan Times Feb. 21 issuee)

「送金メール」をめぐる攻防

    That allegation, made by Mr. Hisayasu Nagata of the Democratic Party of Japan, was endorsed by DPJ President Seiji Maehara, who said the charge was based on "highly accurate information." Mr. Takebe, however, has strongly denied the accusation, and Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi called it "totally groundless." Now looming is a showdown between the LDP and DPJ.

    The regular Diet session, which opened in January, has witnessed a series of scandals, all of which have dealt a blow to the government and the governing party. These scandals, not including the latest, are dubbed the "four-piece set," implying that they are all somehow related. This quartet comprises the fabrication of earthquake-resistance design data for condominiums and hotels, the alleged violation by Livedoor of the Securities and Exchange Law, bid-rigging cases involving the Defense Facilities Administration Agency, and the discovery of prohibited parts in a U.S. beef shipment, and the subsequent reimposition of a freeze on imports of the meat.

    Since the start of the half-year session, the DPJ has relentlessly attacked the government and the LDP for fostering the political conditions that it believes gave rise to the "four-piece set."

    Indeed, the succession of scandals has altered the character of this session. Only a month ago, Mr. Koizumi said in his policy speech that the government would "introduce and secure passage" of a bureaucratic reform bill to cut the number of national civil servants by more than 5 percent in as many years, and integrate government-affiliated financial institutions. That statement now rings hollow. Clearly, the Koizumi administration is losing traction.

    The confusion over whether to submit a bill to amend the Imperial Household Law has created the impression that the administration's staying power has been weakened. Mr. Koizumi has repeatedly said the bill will be presented along the lines of a report from an advisory panel that approved of men and women of Imperial male lineage ascending to the throne. But in the face of strong objections from within the government and the LDP and, more recently, as a result of Princess Kiko's pregnancy — which has raised the possibility of a male heir being born after all — the prime minister has reversed himself.

    Mr. Koizumi seems unenthusiastic about sending a number of other important bills to the current session. He has indicated, for example, that he will not press for a bill to upgrade the Defense Agency to the ministry level. He does not seem very willing, either, to submit bills to revise the Education Basic Law and to establish legal procedures for constitutional amendments.

    It is not just domestic issues that are creating a sense of policy stupor. Mr. Koizumi has never explained convincingly how he intends to repair relations with China and South Korea following their deterioration in recent years due to his repeated visits to Yasukuni Shrine. It is unclear how he will deal with the issue of U.S. military base relocations in Japan and what kind of exit strategy he has in mind for the Self-Defense Force units deployed in the Indian Ocean and Iraq.

    Mr. Koizumi is due to step down as LDP president (and hence prime minister) in September when his presidential term expires. Since the legislative session will end June 18 unless it is extended, it is reasonable to think, barring an extended session, that his leadership ability will be quite limited after that. For all practical purposes, he has only four months left to lead.

    It appears that the "scandal Diet" is driving Mr. Koizumi and his administration into a corner. At the same time, the scandals seem to be blurring his political responsibility in a larger sense. He should make clear what he intends to accomplish during his remaining time as prime minister, and what legacy of reform he would like to leave.

The Japan Times Weekly
Feb. 25, 2006
(C) All rights reserved

    武部氏は疑惑を強く否定し、小泉首相は「ガセネタ」と決めつけた。メールの「信ぴょう性は高い」とする前原代表の民主党と自民党は全面対決の姿勢である。1月に開会した通常国会は、マンション、ホテルの耐震強度偽装、ライブドア、防衛施設庁発注工事をめぐる官製談合、米国産牛の再禁輸問題のいわゆる「4点セット」で大揺れだ。

    状況の激変で国会の審議内容が大きく変わった。小泉首相は行政改革推進政策を後退させる一方、女性・女系天皇を容認する皇室典範改正法案も、政府・自民党内の反対、紀子さまのご懐妊で、今国会に提出する方針を変更せざるを得なくなった。

    首相は、防衛庁の「省」昇格法案、教育基本法改正法案、憲法改正の法的手続きを定める法案の国会提出についても消極的になっている。また、自身の靖国神社参拝で悪化した日中・日韓関係の修復、在日米軍再編、インド洋、イラクに展開する自衛隊の撤退などの重要問題について明確な方針を示していない。

    首相は、9月に自民党総裁としての任期切れを迎える。通常国会は6月18日に閉会する予定でその後、首相の指導力は限定される。「不祥事国会」は小泉内閣を苦境に立たせている一方で、首相の政治責任をあいまいにしている。首相は、残る任期中に達成すべき課題、残すべき政治遺産を明示すべきである。