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A century ago, Russia and Britain contested for influence in Central Asia in what became known as the Great Game. One hundred years later, Central Asia remains a vitally important region, and the governments fighting for influence have increased, and now include Japan.
In late August, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi made the first visit by a Japanese premier to Central Asia. His aim was to secure Japanese access to the region's ample energy resources, but he also hopes to extend Tokyo's influence and balance the inroads made by China and Russia.
While Koizumi's visit was unprecedented, it was not the first Japanese overture toward the region. Immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Tokyo reached out to the region with foreign aid and technical assistance, providing ¥280 billion by 2004, even as it maintained a low profile. Two years ago, then Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi kicked off the "Central Asia plus Japan dialogue" on economic and security ties.
In June, Foreign Minister Taro Aso laid out a bolder agenda. Speaking to the Japan National Press Club, Aso explained that "a new atmosphere is emerging, in which it is simply impossible to ignore Japan when you discuss Central Asia."
The second meeting of the Central Asia plus Japan dialogue convened days later to produce an action plan that focused on fighting terrorism and the spread of narcotics, clearing antipersonnel mines, alleviating poverty and promoting medical care and environmental protection, as well as developing trade and energy resources, cultural exchanges and intellectual dialogues.
This provided the diplomatic foundation for Koizumi's visit, which took him to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
At his first stop, he signed an agreement with Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Japan is eager to help develop Kazakhstan's uranium reserves, the second-largest in the world, to fuel its own nuclear power industry. Kazakhstan wants to increase uranium exports — to supply 25 percent of the Japanese demand within a few years — and sees this as a quick way to boost ties with Japan. Japanese investment in the country has already reached $1 billion, and annual trade is $700 million a year and has increased 21 percent in the first six months of 2006.
In Uzbekistan, Koizumi did not sign any agreements — although the Japan Bank for International Cooperation announced that it signed a memorandum on cooperation for uranium development — focusing instead on reopening dialogue with the government of President Islam Karimov. Uzbekistan's ties with the West have been strained since May 2005, when government troops shot at demonstrators in the eastern city of Andizhan. Some observers say hundreds of people were killed.
Koizumi called on Karimov to improve human rights practices, reportedly saying "friendly relations between Uzbekistan and Japan will lead to better relations between Uzbekistan and the United States and the European Union."
Notably, Koizumi's public comments made no reference to the troubles in 2005; instead he called on the countries to do more to improve bilateral ties.
This low-key approach is typical of Japanese diplomacy, but it also reflects a calculated decision to avoid confrontation with an autocratic regime that is simultaneously being courted by Russia and China. These countries see the region as lying within their natural spheres of influence.
Moscow and Beijing have tried to institutionalize that influence through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which includes Russia, China and four other Central Asia republics — Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
While Russia and China are inclined to turn a blind eye to political abuses that are all too commonplace in Central Asia, both governments are very capable of meddling in their neighbors' internal affairs. With Russia eager to increase its control over energy resources to strengthen its position in the global energy market, Japan is prompted to seize its own opportunity.
Given the rising strategic significance of Central Asia — due to its vast energy resources, its location at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and the Middle East, and the presence of radical Islamists throughout the area — Japan should be deeply involved in the region's affairs, promoting development and positive political evolution.
There are neither easy answers to the problems of the region nor quick fixes. Low key sustained engagement is vital. Koizumi's trip was an important contribution to this process.
The Japan Times Weekly: September 16, 2006
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1世紀前、ロシアと英国は「グレート・ゲーム」として知られる、中央アジアの権益を巡る争いを繰り広げた。今も極めて重要な同地域への進出をめぐり国際的競争が続いており、日本も参加している。先月末、小泉首相は日本の首相として初めて中央アジアを訪問した。ソ連崩壊以後、日本は2004年までに中央アジアに対し2800億円の援助と技術支援を実施した。2年前、日本政府は川口順子外相（当時）の下で、経済・安全保障関係に関する「中央アジアと日本の対話」を開始した。
麻生太郎外相は「中央アジア問題では、日本の存在は無視できなくなっている」と述べている。
最近開かれた「中央アジアと日本の対話」の第2回会合は、テロとの闘い、薬物問題、対人地雷の除去、貧困の軽減、医療と環境保護の改善、貿易とエネルギー資源の開発、文化交流の拡大を中心とした行動計画を策定した。
小泉首相はカザフスタン訪問で、ナザルバエフ大統領と原子力平和利用についての合意文書に署名した。ウズベキスタンでは、首相は特に文書に署名しなかったが、カリモフ大統領との対話で、同国の人権政策を改善するよう呼びかけた。
首相は05年のウズベキスタン政府軍によるデモ弾圧問題には触れず、2国間関係改善へのさらなる努力を求めた。
この控え目なアプローチは日本外交の典型だが、中国とロシアが接近している独裁政権との対立を回避する慎重な方針を反映している。
中央アジアの膨大なエネルギー資源、欧州・アジア・中東の接点としての役割、イスラム過激派の存在を考え、日本は同地域に深く関与し、その開発と政治的発展を支援すべきだ。
中央アジア問題の容易な解決策はない。地道な関与が重要だ。小泉首相の訪問は、この過程への重要な貢献となる。
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