Peace at the top of the world
(From The Japan Times December 1 issue)

ネパール和平への動き

    Nepal has been wracked by a Maoist insurgency for over a decade. The civil war has claimed more than 13,000 lives. The guerrillas had joined the parliamentary process as a political party but opted out to take up arms. They have been fairly successful, now controlling large parts of the countryside. When the government succeeded in retaking territory, it was usually because the guerrillas withdrew. Rarely defeated in battle, the guerrillas were quite ruthless.

    The political equation in Nepal, however, is far more complex than a simple split between rebels and the government. The political establishment itself is divided between royalists and democrats. Tensions between the two have long been high; King Gyanendra has been suspicious and intolerant of political parties, and saw their activities as infringing on royal prerogatives. The growing insurgency gave him the opportunity to seize power in February 2005: He claimed he would end the disorder and corruption that permeated Nepalese politics as well as defeat the insurgency.

    While the king proved unable to beat the Maoists, he did do one important thing: He united the opposition, bringing the various democratic parties together along with the guerrillas. They launched mass protests that culminated in a violent confrontation last April that left 19 people dead. The uproar that followed forced the king to restore the Parliament he had suspended four years earlier. It quickly stripped him of power and then convened peace talks with the Maoists. They responded with a unilateral ceasefire as a sign of good faith. That set the tone for the negotiations that bore fruit with the signing of the peace accord on Nov. 21.

    Under the agreement, signed by Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala and Maoist rebel leader Prachanda, the rebels will join the interim Parliament, taking 73 of the 330 seats as the second-largest party after the prime minister's Nepali Congress. An interim government is to be set up, but those details are still being worked out. The government will oversee national elections for a new Parliament that will write a new constitution and decide the fate of the monarchy. One of the rebels' key demands has been an end to that institution. The Maoists have said they will respect the election outcome. Even if the monarchy is retained, Prachanda has said his group will work through the parliamentary process to bring about change.

    The accord calls for the rebels and their weapons to be confined to camps; army troops will return to their barracks. The rebels are not giving up their weapons, however: They will be locked up and monitored by the United Nations with closed-circuit cameras. The rebels will retain the keys to the storehouses.

    Can the Maoists be trusted? They say they are adapting to changed circumstances. They have honored the cease-fire, although human rights groups charge they have been recruiting new soldiers, and extorting and blackmailing ordinary citizens. This could be the work of local cadres, which raises the question of whether the guerrilla leadership can control its troops.

    The peace process will be aided by the truth and reconciliation commission, which will examine human rights abuses and crimes committed by both sides during the civil war. Both sides need to be held accountable for their behavior during a bloody decade. An important precedent was set when a government commission concluded that King Gyanendra was responsible for the crackdown in April and the 19 deaths that followed. The panel rightly recommended that he be punished.

    A final key component of the peace agreement is to repair Nepal's battered economy. The country is desperately poor and the civil war and the more recent violence have done great damage to the tourist trade, one of the most important sources of income for the mountainous country.

    Ironically, another key source of income is funds sent from abroad by migrant Nepalis. It is unclear whether peace will inspire them to come home. With a majority of the population under 25, Nepal must create jobs and opportunities, or war will resume — fueled by desperation. That is a warning for all of Nepal's leaders that should restrain the celebrations.

The Japan Times Weekly: December 9, 2006
(C) All rights reserved

    ネパール事情は非常に複雑で、政府と反乱組織の対立に加え、政治体制も王政派と民主派に分裂している。政治に不信の念を持っていたギャネンドラ国王は、反乱活動の高まりを利用して、05年2月に権力を掌握した。

    国王は共産党毛沢東派の制圧に失敗したが、その過程で民主政党が毛派と連携し、結果、大規模な抗議運動が起きた。その弾圧で19人が死亡し、国王は解散していた議会を復活せざるを得なくなった。議会は国王の権力を剥奪、政府と毛派は11月21日に和平協定を締結した。

    合意の下で、毛派は330議席の暫定議会で73議席を獲得、コイララ首相率いる第1党のネパール会議派に次ぐ政党となった。暫定政権の樹立後、総選挙を行い、議会が新憲法を制定、王政存続の可否について決断をするという。和平プロセスでは、内戦中の政府軍、毛派軍による人権侵害行為、犯罪を調査する真実・和解委員会が重要な役割を果たす。政府委員会はすでに、ギャネンドラ国王は4月の抗議運動弾圧に責任があり、処罰されるべきとの判断を出している。

    ネパール経済は、内戦で壊滅的打撃を受け、最大の収入源、観光の収入も激減している。和平への動きで、在外のネパール人労働者が帰国するかどうかもはっきりしない。人口の大部分が25歳以下のネパールでは、雇用を創出しなければ、内戦が再発するだろう。ネパールの指導体制はそれを心に留め、和平合意に喜ぶのはまだ早いと、自重するべきである。