Tehran continues its defiance
(From The Japan Times Feb. 25 issue)

イラン、安保理決議を無視

    Despite Tehran's insistence that its nuclear energy program is intended for civilian purposes, suspicions have steadily grown about its nuclear ambitions.

    First, there was the discovery of secret nuclear facilities, then the detection of highly enriched uranium — inconsistent with the type needed for energy production — on processing equipment, and most recently, the discovery of a weapon design on a laptop computer. Iran's explanation for each revelation has only raised more questions.

    All the while, Iran has engaged in negotiations with three European countries — Britain, France and Germany — to devise a diplomatic solution to the issues raised by these mysteries, but no progress has been made. In fact, international access to its nuclear facilities has been diminishing.

    Frustrations peaked late last year when the U.N. Security Council voted unanimously Dec. 23 to impose sanctions on Iran. The council gave Iran 60 days to stop "proliferation-sensitive" nuclear activities.

    Yet, in its recent report to the Security Council, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) concluded that "Iran has not suspended its enrichment-related activities." Worse, Iran "has not agreed" to allow the scrutiny of its nuclear program needed to determine whether it is pursuing a peaceful program or a nuclear weapons program.

    The report is worth quoting in some detail. "Iran has not agreed to any of the required transparency measures essential for the clarification of certain aspects of the scope and nature of its nuclear program."

    The IAEA "remains unable, however, to make further progress in its efforts to verify fully the past development of Iran's nuclear program and certain aspects relevant to its scope and nature. Hence, the agency is unable to verify the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran unless Iran addresses the long outstanding verification issues."

    Since the U.N. vote, Iran has installed nearly 400 centrifuges — components needed to enrich uranium — at its uranium-enrichment facility. That brings to about 1,000 the number of centrifuges operating.

    While that is alarming, it should be put in perspective. Iran appears to be behind schedule: A year ago, Iranian officials said they would have nearly three times that number working — enough to produce one or two bombs' worth of uranium per year. Moreover, Mohammed ElBaradei, the IAEA director general, maintains that Iran is five to six years from acquiring the capability to make a nuclear weapon, an assessment in line with other intelligence estimates.

    Every Iranian official, from President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on down, remains defiant. They insist on their country's right to develop a peaceful nuclear energy program — which is not challenged. What is in question is just how peaceful that program really is.

    The December Security Council vote prohibited trade with Iran in sensitive nuclear materials and missiles and froze the assets of 22 Iranian officials and institutions linked to the most controversial nuclear activities. Reportedly, many of the companies identified have changed names and continue to do business.

    Given Tehran's determination to defy international opinion, it would seem that defenders of international order and multilateral institutions would take additional steps to demand compliance. Instead, China and Russia — two of the governments that complain most loudly about U.S. unilateralism and demand multilateral action — appear set to shield Iran from serious action by the U.N. while several European governments look ready to break ranks and negotiate without first demanding Tehran's compliance with the Security Council mandate.

    Having decided to impose sanctions in line with the December U.N. vote, Japan is, according to Foreign Minister Taro Aso, closely watching the situation.

    Tokyo has not decided to impose additional sanctions, but Mr. Aso said Japan, which needs Iranian oil, will not turn a blind eye to Iranian nuclear activities.

    Tehran needs to be held accountable for its behavior. It is up to the U.N. and its member governments to ensure that happens. That does not mean threatening war, but coercive diplomacy may well be in order.

    A failure to act will do great damage to the U.N. and the very notion of international law that it embodies.

The Japan Times Weekly: March 3, 2007
(C) All rights reserved

    イランは原子力平和利用を推進していると主張するが、その核開発について疑惑が高まっている。秘密の原子炉が発見され、高濃縮ウラン、パソコン上に残された核兵器の設計図が確認された。

    イランは、英仏独3国と、核開発問題に関して外交交渉を行ってきたが、交渉はまったく進展していない。安保理は昨年12月23日、全会一致で対イラン制裁決議を採択、2ヵ月以内に、核拡散に関係する全活動を停止するよう求めた。

    しかし、国際原子力機関(IAEA)は先週、イランはウラン濃縮活動を中止していないことを確認した。イランはさらに、国際的査察の受け入れも拒否している。

    安保理決議以来、イランはウラン濃縮に必要とされる遠心分離機400基を設置、合計設置台数を約1,000基としている。

    アハマネディジャド大統領率いるイランの指導体制は、原子力平和利用の権利を主張しているが、問題は核計画が本当にそうなのかだ。

    一方、米国の単独行動主義に抗議する中国、ロシアは国連制裁からイランを守る動きを見せ、欧州数ヵ国は、安保理決議とは関係なくイランと交渉する立場を取っている。

    日本は先週、安保理決議に従い制裁を課すことを決め、麻生外相によれば、慎重に情勢を注視しているという。

    国連と加盟国は、イランに対し、その行動について責任を取らせねばならない。それは戦争の威嚇でなく、外交的圧力によらねばならない。

    具体的行動を起こさねば、国連と国際法の理念を傷つけることになる。