Thailand's troubles continue
(From The Japan Times March 7 issue)

政情不安の続くタイ

    Those hopes have gone unanswered. Instead, the government has mishandled the economy and the unrest has intensified. The situation in Thailand is only growing worse.

    On Sept. 19, Thai generals ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, alleging that he was corrupt and that his mishandling of affairs of state — particularly in regard to the Muslim insurgency — endangered national security.

    Most of the country's elites and middle classes welcomed the step: They considered Mr. Thaksin a populist upstart. Rural Thais and members of the lower classes backed the ousted prime minister, but they have accepted the new government just as the foreign governments that demand respect for democracy have.

    Gen. Surayud Chulanont serves as prime minister in the military government that took office. It was anticipated that his rule would be short: A new constitution would be written and power handed over to a democratically elected government. The transition process is proving longer than expected. It took several months for the government to name the new committee that would draft the new constitution and elections are not even scheduled until later this year.

    In the meantime, the new government has proven to be fumble fingered. Although it alleged that Mr. Thaksin was corrupt, no charges have been filed nor proof offered. Its competence was called into question when the government imposed capital controls that terrified foreign investors and triggered a huge sell-off in the market (the measures were partially revoked 24 hours later) and on New Year's Eve when a series of bombs went off in Bangkok, killing two people and wounding 38 others.

    The government asserted the attacks were the work of the former prime minister's supporters, although evidence suggests the real instigators were Islamic militants.

    In recent weeks, the troubles have intensified. Muslims are the majority in Thailand's three southern provinces, despite being a minority elsewhere in the country. They have long claimed to have been discriminated against and treated as second-class citizens. Their frustrations have mounted and increasingly spill over into violence. More than 2,000 lives have been lost as a result of such incidents since 2004. During the Lunar New Year celebrations, 28 bombs went off in southern Thailand, leaving nine dead and injuring 44 others.

    The military government has reversed the policies of the Thaksin government, preferring a softer approach to the iron fist that inflamed Muslim opinion and accelerated the insurgency. Unfortunately, the new line is not having results and many Thais are losing faith in the government's ability to deal with this problem. Perhaps in response, security forces raided a suspected hideout for militants recently, killing five militants.

    Mistrust is also growing when it comes to economic policy. Investor confidence, shaky after the imposition and partial reversal of the foreign investment measures, took another blow with the sudden resignation of Finance Minister Pridiyathorn Devakula. Mr. Pridiyathorn, who also served as deputy prime minister, complained that he did not have the full support of the government. Mr. Virabongsa Ramangkura also resigned as chairman of the Export-Import Bank of Thailand.

    As a result, the Thai economy is growing at its slowest pace in two years. In the last quarter of 2006, the economy expanded 3.9 percent, a drop from the 4.7 percent recorded before the coup. Applications to build new factories and other facilities dropped 24 percent last year and economists warn that a lack of confidence among consumers and foreign investors — the product of political uncertainty, the threat of terrorism and even floods — will continue to act as a drag on the economy. It is no wonder then that Mr. Surayud's popularity has fallen nearly in half since he took office and is now at 35 percent according to one poll.

    Some worry that things will get worse still. With a Cabinet reshuffle, the prime minister is trying to improve the situation, but it may take more than new faces to restore the confidence that it so badly needed.

    There are fears that Islamic militants will step up their attacks when the U.S. holds its annual Cobra Gold military exercise in Thailand — both to strike against Washington and to embarrass the Bangkok government for its support of the U.S. While some of the new government's troubles have been inherited, some are of its own making. Both must be solved and soon.

The Japan Times Weekly: March 17, 2007
(C) All rights reserved

    タクシン政権を追放して実権を掌握した軍指導者たちは、政権の反乱対策の不手際が治安を悪化させたと主張した。軍事政権のスラユット首相は、新憲法が制定されると同時に、民主選挙で選出された政権に権力を移譲すると思われていたが、そのプロセスに意外に時間がかかっている。

    タクシン前首相は資本移動を制限し、その結果外国の投資企業を遠ざけ、株式市場の大量売りを招いた。12月31日には、バンコクで一連の爆弾事件があり、2人が死亡、38人が負傷した。

    政府は、事件はタクシン派の仕業と主張したが、イスラム過激派が引き起こしたとみられる。

    イスラム教徒は、長年差別を受けてきたと主張しており、暴力事件を起こしている。軍事政権は、タクシン政権の強硬取り締まりから、柔軟な政策へ方針を転換しているが、成果を上げていない。経済政策についても、1日のプリディアトーン副首相兼財務相の辞任で不安が高まっている。

    タイ経済の成長率は2年間の最低に落ち込んでいる。06年の9〜12月期の成長率は3.9％と、クーデター前の4.7％から急落した。昨年の工場等の建設申請は前年比24％も下落した。政情不安、テロの脅威、洪水の可能性などが国内消費と外国投資にブレーキをかけ、スラユット首相の支持率は就任時の約半分の35％に下落している。

    イスラム過激派は、米軍の「コブラ・ゴールド」軍事訓練に合わせ攻撃を開始する可能性があるという。タイ新政権の問題は、前政権から引き継いだものもあり、自己責任で起きたものもあるが、どちらも解決を急がねばならない。