A devastating defeat for Abe
(From The Japan Times July 31 issue)

参院選、安倍政権が惨敗

    In the Upper House election July 29, voters expressed their dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party, which has been embroiled in a pension-records fiasco, political-funds scandals and gaffes by Cabinet ministers. The votes have made the opposition Democratic Party of Japan the No. 1 party in the Diet's Upper House. The massive defeat will make it much more difficult for the governing coalition to pass bills in the Diet and will force it to compromise with the opposition on important issues. Although Mr. Abe has declared that he will not step down, it is clear that rough times await him.

    The DPJ's election victory is a political boon to its leader Mr. Ichiro Ozawa, who vowed to "stake his political life on the Upper House election." His party's campaign motto was "The people's life should be the No. 1 matter." In his campaign, Mr. Ozawa claimed that under the governing coalition's program emphasizing "reform and economic growth," only the strong have survived, and the weak and the rural regions have been discarded, causing serious social divides. Mr. Ozawa's observations and proposals struck the right note with many voters. Remarkably, his party won an overwhelming victory in the one-seat constituencies in rural and depopulated areas, a traditionally LDP stronghold.

    Mr. Abe tried to sell economic growth to the voters, but the election results underline a need for him to rethink his basic approach. In its campaign, the DPJ proposed providing each child with an allowance of ¥26,000 a month until he or she graduates from middle school, and paying farmers the difference between the production costs of main crops and their market prices so that small farmers can continue to work in agriculture.

    With an increase in the DPJ's party strength, however, its political responsibility has also grown. It must make efforts to give credibility to its policy proposals by seriously addressing the question of how to secure the financial resources needed to carry out its proposals. If the party focuses too much on political maneuvers aimed at further weakening the LDP, it will lose the people's trust. For its part, the LDP must hone its policy-formation ability and strengthen its local political bases.

    Apart from the postelection difficulties the governing coalition will face in the Diet, the election outcome also means a setback, at least temporarily, to Mr. Abe's goal of revising the Constitution. Although the election campaign by both parties focused on issues closely related to the people's welfare, such as pensions, social welfare and how to share the fruits of economic growth, the LDP's campaign pledge placed top priority on constitutional revision. If the LDP had won in the election, it could have claimed that the voters had endorsed its plan to revise the nation's basic law.

    Although Mr. Abe did not elaborate on constitutional revision, his thoughts on this vital issue can be discerned from the LDP's 2005 draft constitution, which called for turning the Self-Defense Forces into full-fledged armed forces, and the fact that Mr. Abe pushed the revision of the Fundamental Law of Education to instill patriotism in children and strengthen state control of education. Now that the national referendum law for constitutional revision is in force, the Diet can initiate the process with the support of two-thirds or more of Diet members after three years. But because the LDP had failed to gain the DPJ's cooperation in passing the referendum bill and the opposition camp now has a majority in the Upper House, the LDP is unlikely to achieve its goal of revising the Constitution. Mr. Abe's grand but dubious political goal of achieving a "departure from the postwar regime" is stalled for the time being.

    Voters clearly did not forget the issue of money and politics, which led to the suicide of former farm minister Toshikatsu Matsuoka. Likewise, they remembered gaffes by Cabinet members, including former Defense Minister Fumio Kyuma's remarks that the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki "could not be helped." The voters saw Mr. Abe's lack of political leadership in his handling of these issues. The prime minister and his Cabinet would do well to keep this in mind.

    Although Mr. Abe has refused to resign to take responsibility for the governing coalition's devastating defeat, strong voices inside and outside the LDP will likely call on him to do so. The sad irony is that there seem to be few politicians in the LDP who can fill even his shoes.

    7月29日の参院選で、有権者は安倍首相と自民党に対し、年金記録の不備、「政治とカネ」の問題、閣僚の失言をめぐり厳しい判断を下した。野党民主党が参院で第一党になり、自民党は惨敗した。この結果、与党が法案を成立させるのが難しくなり、重要法案について野党と妥協を強いられる。続投の意思を表明した首相には、いばらの道が待っている。

    小沢一郎民主党党首は、参院選に政治生命を賭ける決意を表明、与党の「改革と経済成長路線」の下で、社会的弱者と地方が見捨てられ、社会格差が拡大したと主張した。小沢氏の主張は多くの有権者の共感を呼び、地方の1人区で、民主党は圧倒的勝利をおさめた。

    民主党の勢力拡大とともに、その政治責任も重くなった。公約実現のために必要な財源をいかに確保するかが大きな課題になる。

    今回の惨敗で、安倍政権の改憲の目標も後退した。自民・民主両党の選挙運動は、年金、社会福祉、成長の果実の分配などの問題に焦点を当てたが、自民党の公約は、自衛隊の正式軍隊への昇格など、改憲を最優先していた。

    憲法改正のための国民投票法はすでに成立し、3年後には国会議員の3分の2以上の発議で、憲法改正手続きを進めることが可能になるが、野党が参議院の多数を制することになった今、自民党の憲法改正の目標は難しくなった。

    有権者は「政治とカネ」、久間前防衛相の「原爆投下はしょうがない」発言などの閣僚の失言、これらの問題についての安倍首相の指導性の欠如などについても厳しい判断を下した。

    安倍首相は、責任を取って退陣する考えのないことを表明したが、自民党の内外で退陣を求める声が強くなるだろう。問題は安倍氏の後任としての人材がほとんどいないことだ