Symbolic U.S.-Japan summits will not cut the mustard in future
(From The Japan Times Nov. 20 issue)

日米首脳会談の意義

The trip had to be made. It is traditional for a Japanese prime minister to make his first overseas trip to the United States to affirm relations with the country's closest ally. With reports of tensions growing in the bilateral security relationship, Mr. Yasuo Fukuda's visit to Washington on Nov. 16 took on more urgency than usual. But the visit itself — a mere 26 hours — consisted of little more than photo ops and pro forma reassurances that the alliance continues to be strong and each country's concerns are shared by its partner. But, turning that rhetoric into reality is another matter.

Neither Tokyo nor Washington is likely to be happy with its partner's actions in the weeks to come. The Japan-U.S. relationship has been battered by recent developments. The landslide win of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan in the July Upper House election has shifted the balance of power in the Diet to some extent, and DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa appears to be trying to use that momentum to paralyze the Diet and force a general election.

One of the issues that has been central to his effort is the Antiterrorism Special Measures Law, which permits Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force to refuel U.S.-led coalition vessels in the Indian Ocean.

The legislation expired Nov. 1 and the MSDF vessels were recalled to port. There was considerable disappointment from the United States. During their meeting, Mr. Fukuda told U.S. President George W. Bush that he would make his "utmost efforts" to restart that mission. He also told his U.S. host that "We should never allow Afghanistan to once again become a hotbed for terrorism." Nonetheless, there is little likelihood that new legislation to restart the mission will get through the Diet before the session expires.

Disappointment from Washington has been matched by concern in Tokyo about the U.S. position in the six-party talks over North Korea's nuclear program. Japan has withheld support for the six-party agreement until it gets some resolution on the issue of its citizens abducted by North Korea.

There is concern now that the United States will take North Korea off the list of state sponsors of terrorism, even without progress on the abduction issue. If so, Japan would be isolated within the six-party talks and would lose considerable leverage with Pyongyang.

In his remarks, Mr. Bush promised that "We will not forget this issue. I understand how important the issue is to the Japanese people." Mr. Fukuda responded, saying that the two men "agreed that Japan and United States need to maintain close coordination with each other, in order to achieve abandonment of all nuclear weapons and programs by North Korea, through the six-party talks."

In short, while the two leaders remain committed to their partnership, their alliance is beset by problems, large and small. What should be most troubling to both countries are growing perception gaps and a sense, despite protests to the contrary, that the other country does not share its priorities. Domestic politics could compound the difficulties. Mr. Fukuda is struggling in uncharted terrain, trying to navigate a divided Diet; Mr. Bush is a lame-duck president, whose term in office is ticking down.

Both men need to make the other a priority, and be prepared to spend political capital on their partner's behalf. Yet, political circumstances make that difficult. A symbolic summit will not suffice in the future.

日本の首相は、就任後初の海外訪問で訪米することが通例になっている。福田首相は16日の日米首脳会談で、2国間の同盟の強化を確認したが、それを具体化するのは容易ではない。

インド洋における海上自衛隊による連合軍艦船への給油を可能にしてきたテロ特措法は1 日に期限が切れ、自衛艦は母港へ帰港した。福田首相は、ブッシュ大統領に給油活動再開へ向け最善の努力を約束したが、国会が閉会するまでに、給油再開を可能にする新テロ特措法案が成立する見込みはほとんどない。

一方、北朝鮮の核開発をめぐる6ヶ国協議での米国の立場について、国内で憂慮する声がある。日本は、拉致被害者問題が解決されるまで同協議の合意について支持を差し控えている。米国は、拉致被害者問題について進展がなくても、北朝鮮のテロ支援国家指定を解除する予定だといわれている。そうなれば、日本は6ヶ国協議で孤立化し、北朝鮮に対する影響力を失う可能性がある。

ブッシュ大統領は福田首相に対し、「拉致被害者問題が日本国民にとっていかに重要であるか理解している」と述べ、首相は「北朝鮮の核兵器、核開発計画を放棄させるため、日米の協力が必要である」と答えた。

日米は協力の必要について合意しているが、政策の優先度について温度差がある。国内の政情が問題を複雑化する可能性もある。

福田首相が「ねじれ国会」に必死に対応しようとしている一方、ブッシュ大統領には任期切れが迫っている。

首相、大統領はお互いの政策優先度について連携を進める必要があるが、それには政治的困難が伴う。今後は実質の伴わない首脳会談は意味がない。