Work remains as wall on climate change falls
(From The Japan Times Dec. 23 issue)

温暖化防止バリ島会議の成果

It is a start. That's the best assessment of the agreement produced by the 190-some governments at the United Nations climate change conference in Bali, Indonesia, in December. After an abrupt U-turn by the United States, delegates reached consensus on a new framework for tackling global warming.

Significantly, this deal requires both developed and developing nations to commit to measurable, verifiable action. If implemented, the agreement could slow and perhaps even stop global climate change. That is a big "if" and history is not encouraging.

It has been a decade since international negotiations produced the Kyoto Protocol to the International Framework Convention on Climate Change. That agreement was a first attempt to deal with global warming, but it proved ineffective. Several governments resisted implementation, arguing that they could not accept the limits to growth it would create, or that the exemption of rapidly developing states producing greenhouse gases was unfair. While the United States was castigated for being the chief offender, it was not alone in its opposition to Kyoto.

As doubts about the reality of climate change receded, the call for action grew. The Kyoto Protocol's impending expiration date — it ends in 2012 — galvanized international action. The Bali meeting was intended to provide a broad framework that will yield, over two years, an agreement that will succeed Kyoto. Yet despite virtual unanimity on both the seriousness of climate change and the need for immediate action, Bali looked deadlocked.

The primary culprit was the United States. The Bush administration has continued to reject mandatory targets. U.S. delegates held out throughout the Bali meeting, incurring considerable abuse in the process. Finally, after a dramatic confrontation in which developing nation representatives asked the United States to at least get out of the way, the American position changed.

The "Bali Roadmap" provides an agreement in principle to cut emissions by 2050. All nations accepted that the 2009 Copenhagen conference will produce binding targets as well as aid to developing countries that will help them mitigate the effects of climate change and speed their adaptation to "greener" societies. China and other developing nations agreed to measurable, reportable and verifiable emissions cutting actions. Finally, a mechanism was established to give tropical nations financial compensation for preserving rain forests.

Delegates were pleased with their work. Mr. Yvo de Boer, head of the U.N. climate control program, said Bali had "delivered what it needed to do." In one of those rhetorical flourishes that marks U.N. work, he concluded that "What we've seen disappear today is what I would call 'the Berlin Wall of climate change.'"

While such hyperbole is to be expected, environmentalists applauded the Bali outcome while cautioning that the real work has yet to be done. Hard choices have to be made and the question of how to treat countries that violate commitments is unanswered.

Scientists insist that two sets of numbers are the baseline for effective action: 2 and 445 and "25 to 40." A rise of 2 degrees Celsius in temperature and 445 parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are the ceilings that the planet can endure; a 25-to-40-percent reduction in global-warming gases is required to maintain those levels.

Explicit language calling on industrialized countries to cut their emissions 25 to 40 percent from 1990 levels, by 2020, was cut from the Bali agreement. It was referenced in a footnote, however.

As attention shifts to negotiations leading up to the Copenhagen meeting, Japan must become more active. There was disappointment in Japan's diplomacy at Bali. The government provided a draft but it was skeletal. While working as a mediator between the United States and other countries, there was criticism of Japanese passivity.

Japan must end its passive role. Japan was instrumental in developing the Kyoto Protocol and its companies are some of the most energy efficient in the world. Japan is reportedly planning to put the environment front and center at the upcoming Group of Eight conference that it will host next summer.

As this country seeks a higher international profile, few issues deserve more attention and are better suited to Japanese strengths than climate change. As the world focused on Bali, another group of scientists reported that the world was reaching a "tipping point" at which climate change will become irreversible. Bali is the first turn in a race whose finish line is rapidly approaching.

インドネシア・バリ島で開かれていた国連気候変動枠組み条約第13回締結国会議は、米国の突然の方針転換後、地球温暖化対策の新たな枠組みについて合意した。

合意は、先進国、発展途上国に対し検証可能な排出削減行動を義務づけている。合意が実行されれば、気候変動を遅らせ、食い止める可能性があるが、実行については疑問が残る。会議で米ブッシュ政権は数値目標設定に反対したが、途上国の圧力で戦術を変更した。合意した「バリ・ロードマップ」の下で、関係国は2050年までに地球温暖化ガス排出を削減すること、09年のコペンハーゲン会議で、排出削減の数値目標と、途上国の環境保護のための援助について合意することを約した。

国際舞台で存在感を高めたい日本にとって、気候変動対策は最適の課題である。ある科学者グループによれば、気候変動は不可逆になる転換点に近づいているという。バリ島会議は、ゴールが見えてきたレースの最初のターンである。