Under a new South Korean presidency, Japan has chance to rebuild relations
(From The Japan Times Dec. 22 issue)

韓国大統領に李明博氏

South Korea has a new president. As anticipated, former Hyundai CEO Lee Myung Bak won a landslide victory in the Dec. 19 election. A conservative, Mr. Lee has promised to re-examine many of the policies of his predecessors. His presidency offers Japan a chance to rebuild a crucial relationship that has deteriorated over the last five years. But Japanese must also recognize — as Mr. Lee himself will discover — that there is likely to be considerable continuity in South Korean policy as well.

After leading opinion polls for months, Mr. Lee won 48.7 percent of votes cast. His chief opponent, Mr. Chung Dong Young, an ally of incumbent President Roh Moo Hyun, ran a distant second, with 26.1 percent. Ominously for Mr. Lee, third place went to Mr. Lee Hoi Chang, another conservative politician who believes the president-elect may not be hardline enough in dealing with North Korea. With 13 percent of the vote, the other Mr. Lee looks like a force to be reckoned with in National Assembly elections to be held in April.

The easiest way to minimize any threat from the right is to deliver on his promises to revitalize the South Korean economy. While the Korean economy grew about 4.5 percent throughout Mr. Roh's term, most Koreans feel it has underperformed. Mr. Lee promised to focus on economic revival. He campaigned on the "747 pledge": He will raise growth to 7 percent annually, double Korea's per capita income to $40,000 and reach the ranks of the world's top seven economies.

The promise of economic revival was enough to get voters to overlook the whiff of scandal that taints Mr. Lee's past — and threatened his candidacy. He confessed to fudging books to minimize taxes and to faking residencies to get his children into better schools. More worrisome was evidence that appeared days before the vote that contradicted Mr. Lee's claim that he had not been involved in a stock manipulation case. The size of his win will probably derail that investigation — he has said he would step aside if found guilty — but it does recast the electoral terrain for the April parliamentary vote.

On foreign policy, Mr. Lee has promised to take a hard look at his government's engagement with North Korea. Pyongyang is likely to find the flow of money constrained. One explanation for the second South-North summit in October and the flurry of recent intra-Korean activity has been a desire by North Korea to lock in projects. The truth is, most South Koreans support aid to the North; only the terms of the relationship are challenged. They want more respect and reciprocity from the North. With denuclearization proceeding, albeit at a somewhat slower pace than anticipated, North Korea may press forward with relations with the United States and accept a slight freeze in intra-Korean relations while ratcheting up rhetoric to gain the upper hand.

That means there are opportunities for Japan to rebuild its frayed relationship with Seoul. Mr. Lee has said he wants to build better ties with Japan. Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda has already sent a message of congratulations and promised to work closely with the new administration.

Mr. Lee also said he seeks better ties with the U.S. While relations between the U.S. and South Korea were not as bad as many feared — Mr. Roh rode a wave of anti-American sentiment into office in 2002 yet backed the U.S. in Iraq and has negotiated a bilateral free-trade agreement — the relationship has been strained during his administration. A conservative, Mr. Lee is a more instinctive supporter of the U.S.-South Korea alliance than was his predecessor. That is good for regional stability and provides another common point in relations with Japan.

The biggest challenge for Mr. Lee will be delivering on his promise of economic reform. Koreans have high hopes, but it will be difficult for a developed economy like South Korea to return to the heady days of 7 percent growth. Failure could disillusion voters, many of whom have already revealed their disappointment by refusing to vote. We wish Mr. Lee good luck.

19日の韓国大統領選で「現代建設」の元会長で保守派の李明博（イ・ミョンバク）氏が圧勝した。

李氏は、強敵の右派に対抗するため韓国経済を活性化することが求められる。氏は7 % 成長、1人当たり年間国民所得4万ドル、7大経済大国の仲間入りを約束している。

外交面では、李氏は対北朝鮮関与政策を見直すという。非核化の進展に伴い、北朝鮮は対米関係改善へと動き、南北関係は停滞する可能性がある。これは日本が対韓関係を改善するチャンスだ。福田首相はすでに、新政権に対し対韓関係を改善したいとの意向を表明している。

李氏の最大の課題は、経済改革の公約を実行することだ。すでに経済先進国となった韓国にとって、以前のような7 % 成長は難しい。公約実行に失敗すれば、韓国国民は非常に失望するだろう。李氏の幸運を祈る。