Taiwan's new approach
(From The Japan Times March 29 issue)

台湾の新しいアプローチ

The victory of Mr. Ma Ying-Jeou, the Nationalist (KMT) candidate, in Taiwan's presidential election March 22 could herald a diminution of tensions in the Taiwan Strait, one of the remaining legacies of the Cold War and a potential nuclear flash point. Mr. Ma has called for closer relations with the mainland. More importantly, he pledged that his administration would emphasize economics, rather than the political identity of Taiwan, a marked departure from the approach of the president, Mr. Chen Shui-bian. This return to pragmatism in Taipei is welcome.

Mr. Chen's eight-year tenure was a combative term. He was elected on a platform that stressed Taiwan's identity, and he vowed to win international recognition for Taiwan's political and economic achievement and greater diplomatic space. That pledge enraged Beijing, which considers Taiwan a "renegade province," and earned Mr. Chen its eternal enmity. Both sides' determination eliminated any maneuvering room for either government and ensured that cross-strait relations remained tense.

Mr. Chen made little progress on his Taiwan identity agenda. He did manage to alienate close friends in Washington, however. Even though U.S. President George W. Bush took office believing that China was a strategic competitor with the United States, Mr. Bush was prepared to rebuke Mr. Chen for causing tensions in Asia.

More troubling for the Taiwanese was a sense that identity politics were hurting Taiwan's image and undermining its economy. Even though the economy grew 5.7 percent in 2007, most Taiwanese felt that they were not benefiting from growth. Many blamed the government's restriction on investment on the mainland, which grew out of a concern that Taiwan was becoming too dependent on China's economy.

In his campaign, Mr. Ma, a former mayor of Taipei, vowed to focus on the economy. That won over most voters, who elected him over Mr. Frank Hsieh of the president's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The results were expected. The KMT and affiliates claimed three-quarters of the seats in parliamentary elections in January and the KMT runs 15 of Taiwan's 25 largest cities. In fact, the prospect of KMT domination of both the executive and legislative branches was one of the most important influences on voters.

Not even the Chinese government's crackdown on Tibetan protests stemmed the tide of support for Mr. Ma. Taiwanese voters know better. So does Mr. Ma. Closer relations with the mainland do not mean that reunification is around the corner. Most Taiwanese want independence, but they recognize that is not within their grasp. They seek pragmatic accommodation that allows them to prosper while protecting their hard-won democratic freedoms.

Even while pushing for better relations with the mainland, Mr. Ma ruled out any discussion of political reunification. He has attended annual vigils for the victims of the 1989 Tiananmen killings and denounced other forms of repression. The new president is not naive. After winning the vote, Mr. Ma explained that his first priority "is normalization of (economic) relations, and then a peace agreement."

The biggest concern now is Beijing's understanding of Taiwanese politics. It has wooed KMT leaders for several years and they have reciprocated. But if Beijing expects the new president to sharply alter course, then it is sure to be disappointed. Mr. Ma has said that "before we can talk about peace, we need to remove the threat," a reference to the 1,000 missiles reportedly arrayed against Taiwan. Mr. Ma has also promised to increase defense spending to about 3 percent of GDP. That does not sound like a man ready for unification. Fortunately, with the Olympics on the horizon, China will have little appetite for tension.

Mr. Ma also reportedly wants to elevate relations with Japan. Japan overtook the United States in 2006 as Taiwan's second-largest trading partner: Two-way trade nearly reached $ 63 billion, and 2.3 million tourists were exchanged. While the KMT has traditionally been cool on relations with Tokyo, Mr. Ma is said to want to launch negotiations on a free-trade agreement. Those talks will be tricky: China is sure to take offense at any deal that appears to prevent reunification.

Mr. Ma has his work cut out for him. But the scale of his victory should provide a solid foundation for his administration. Taiwan's voters appear to understand his priorities and appear ready to back a pragmatic agenda. Most significantly, the alternation of power is a powerful reassurance about the state of democracy in Taiwan.

3月22日の台湾総統選挙で国民党の馬英九氏が選ばれたことは、台湾海峡の緊張緩和の前触れとなりそうだ。馬氏は中国との融和を目指している。政治的台湾化よりも、現実的な経済重視政策をとると公約したところが、馬氏と現職の陳水扁総統との際立った違いである。

陳氏の8年の任期は波乱含みだった。陳氏は台湾のアイデンティティ強化を旗印に立ち上がったため中台関係は悪化した。だが、台湾化路線は進展しなかった。台湾は2007年に5.7 % の経済成長を遂げたが、その恩恵をこうむっていないと感じる国民が多く、中国依存を恐れる政府が対中投資を規制したのが原因と見る者も大勢いた。

馬氏が民主進歩党の謝長廷氏に勝ったのは、経済に重点をおくという公約が有権者の心をとらえたためだ。中国によるチベット騒乱鎮圧にも、陳氏の支持はゆるがなかった。融和政策は、中国と台湾の統一とは直結しないと分かっているからだ。台湾国民のほとんどは独立を望んでいる。だが、民主化を守りながらも経済繁栄を目指すという現実策の方を選択したのである。

現在の一番の懸念は、中国が台湾の思惑を理解するかどうかだ。中国政府は国民党に秋波を送ってきたが、新総統が急に台湾の路線を方向転換させると思うのは間違いだ。馬氏は中国が台湾に照準を合わせているといわれるミサイル1,000基を撤去しない限り和平交渉を検討することはないと述べている。だが、オリンピックを控えた中国に緊張を高める意図はない。馬氏は対日関係改善も視野におき、自由貿易協定の交渉を始める意図もあるといわれるが、中国はこれも、統一をはばむ行為として異を唱えるだろう。

仕事は多いが、圧勝した馬氏の政権の基盤はしっかりしている。政権交代は台湾の民主主義の健全さを示しているといえよう。