Hunger in world of plenty
(From The Japan Times April 29 issue)

豊かな世界に広がる飢餓

The world faces serious shortages of food. Markets are failing and people are starving. Despite historical levels of wealth, unequaled access to technology and unparalleled communications, experts now forecast a structural shift in global demand that will keep prices high and people hungry. This is shameful. Steps can and must be taken.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization reports that food prices have risen 45 percent on average since last summer. This follows an increase of 37 percent over the previous two years. The World Bank says the average price of staple foods has risen 80 percent since 2005.

The prices of wheat and rice have doubled in the last year, and maize is one-third more expensive. Already this year, rice prices hit a 19-year high, wheat prices rose to a 28-year high and are almost two times the average price of the last 25 years. The FAO expects the price of cereals to climb 56 percent this year. And this is despite an anticipated 2.6 percent increase in production to a record 2.16 billion tons.

While climbing food prices hit all consumers, their impact on less-developed countries is far greater: Those citizens spend 50 percent to 60 percent of their income on food. It is no surprise, then, that food riots have broken out in a number of African countries, Haiti, Indonesia and the Philippines. Troops have been deployed to guard food warehouses in Thailand and Pakistan. The FAO estimates that 37 countries face food crises and the possibility of serious social unrest as a result of food shortages.

There is no single or simple answer to explain the shortages. Bad weather in food producing countries — drought in Canada and Australia, excessive rain and cold in the United States — has been a factor.

Skyrocketing oil prices have pushed the price of fertilizer up 59 percent. Ironically, some experts say rising affluence is a contributing factor. An Indian official noted that "going from one meal a day to two meals a day for 300 million people increases demand." New wealth in China compounds that demand.

As prices rise, producers are holding off on sending foods to the market, hoping they will make even more money as supplies fall. (That is a self-fulfilling prophecy.) But some governments are making matters worse by restricting food exports — a natural response to shortages, but one that adds to upward pressure on international prices. India and Vietnam, two key rice producers, slammed the doors shut earlier this year, creating a 40 percent spike in prices in just three days.

It is now reported that other governments are responding with bilateral deals with food producers to secure supplies. Those agreements provide some certainty for importers, but they also decrease supplies on the global market, and keep prices high.

A final contributing factor has been the push to develop greener fuels and to decrease reliance on oil from the Middle East. It is estimated that 8 million hectares of land that once produced maize, wheat, soya, and other crops for animal feed and food have been taken out of production in the United States and are being devoted to biofuels. A similar diversion of land is occurring in Argentina, Brazil, Canada and Eastern Europe. Mr. Lester Brown, director of the Earth Policy Institute, a U.S. think tank, argues that the land used for biofuels would have fed nearly 250 million people: "In the last two years, the United States has diverted 60 million tons of food to fuel."

Plainly, only a coordinated multilateral response will have an impact. First, and most immediately, governments have to provide funds to help stave off crises. That means providing the World Food Program with at least $500 million to cover existing funding shortfalls. In addition, developing countries need money to buy seeds, fertilizer and feed. The FAO puts that price tag at between $1.2 billion and $1.7 billion. The World Bank will make a start by doubling its aid to the agriculture sector in Africa from $450 million to $800 million.

Over the longer term, investment in agricultural infrastructure is essential to ensure that crops get from the fields to the market. Energy efficiency must also increase. Perhaps the most important step forward would be the successful completion of the Doha Round of trade negotiations — as originally intended. These talks were supposed to focus on developing country needs. That meant lifting barriers to agricultural markets in developed countries. Sadly, that ambitious — and critical — objective has not been met. As a result, trade-distorting agricultural subsidies and protection continue, hurting the world's poorest and weakest citizens. Enough is enough.

史上まれな豊かさ、技術やコミュニケーションの進歩などを尻目に、世界に飢餓が広がっている。食糧の国際価格が上っているためだ。国連食糧農業機関（FAO）によると、食糧価格は昨夏以来平均45 % 上昇した。今年も、穀物の価格は、増産が予定されているにもかかわらず、56 % 上昇する見込みだという。世界中が価格急騰の影響を受けているが、最も打撃が大きいのは、所得の5、6割が食費に消えるような発展途上諸国の国民だ。多くの国で抗議の暴動が頻発、社会不安が広がっている。

天候不順による不作や、原油価格高騰による肥料価格の値上げなど、食糧不足には複数の要因が絡んでいる。国が豊かになり、国民が1日1食でなく2食食べるようになったため、需要が拡大したところもある。生産者は値上げを見込んで出荷を控え、一部の国では穀物の輸出規制を行い、価格急騰に拍車をかけている。

さらに、地球にやさしく、中東の石油への依存を減らすためのバイオ燃料の普及も大きな要因だ。アメリカなどでは、食糧を生産するはずの農地がバイオ燃料の原料となる穀物生産に回されている。

問題解決には多国間の協調が欠かせない。まず世界食糧計画（WFP）に、早急に資金援助をする必要がある。FAO、世界銀行などの国際機関にも資金を流し、途上国の農業支援に回すべきだ。長期的な策としては農業のインフラへの投資も重要だ。

一番大切なのは国際会議のドーハ・ラウンド交渉を成功させることだろう。途上国のために先進諸国の貿易障壁を取り除くことを目的とした会議だが、その目的はいまだに達成されていない。貿易を歪曲させる農業助成金や保護策が放置され、一番弱い立場の人々を苦しめている。こんなことはいい加減に辞めるべきだ。