China, Taiwan agree to strengthen cross-strait ties at first talks in years
(From The Japan Times June 19 issue)

中台の交流目指す会談、10年ぶりに再開

The Taiwan Strait continues to shrink. In the middle of June, China and Taiwan agreed on regular nonstop charter flights between the two sides of the strait, a move that would boost tourism, help the sputtering Taiwanese economy and provide the impetus for even more ambitious links between them. This progress is welcome and long overdue; the chief challenge now is ensuring that the Taiwanese public backs the improvement of ties. While they support steps that improve the economy and lessen tensions between the two governments, they also fear that their government might be willing to put ties with Beijing above their sovereignty. If they dig in their heels, tensions could again prevail and the cross-strait relationship might again deteriorate.

The charter flight deal had been in the works for some time. Currently, those flights are only available on four special holidays and both governments had hoped to make them regular. The election victory of Nationalist candidate Ma Ying-jeou in the March presidential ballot made an agreement possible. Mr. Ma favors a less antagonistic relationship with Beijing, and wants to subordinate identity and independence issues to more pragmatic concerns: getting the economy back on track.

Not surprisingly, the cross-strait relationship has been warming since his election, with high-level contacts between the two ruling parties and, in the middle of June, the first official meeting between the two sides in 10 years. The two sides agreed to 36 nonstop charter flights every weekend from July 4, and these would increase to 96 every weekend after the Olympics. In three months, the two sides will begin discussions on daily charter flights and a full regular schedule of direct flights. Such flights have been banned for 60 years. Travelers wanting to go from one side of the strait to the other have had to travel via third cities.

Direct flights — which will still be routed via the airspace of those third cities — could draw as many as 3,000 Chinese tourists to Taiwan each day and provide a lagging economy a shot in the arm. The Taipei government estimates the agreement could boost the island economy by 0.2 percentage points this year, from 4.8 percent to 5 percent. China's motivations differ slightly: Beijing is hoping that increased contact between the two will warm Taiwanese hearts toward the mainland and diminish obstacles to closer integration.

Just as important are cargo flights. They would boost trade between Taiwan and the mainland, which reached $43.9 billion in the first four months of 2008, a 21.7 percent jump over last year. Yet as Taiwanese businesses salivate over the prospect, the island's independence activists fear that the mainland's embrace is a prelude to unification.

One way China could woo reluctant Taiwanese would be to support Taiwanese efforts to claim more international space, such as backing Taipei's membership in international organizations. Beijing has opposed such moves in the past, but a shift in that thinking would go a long way toward winning Taiwanese hearts and minds. Chinese President Hu Jintao has said this issue could be worked out if both sides show flexibility. The events of the middle of June show much is possible if the two sides are patient, creative and ready to work toward mutually desired solutions.

台湾海峡両岸が引き寄せられている。中国と台湾は今月中旬、直行チャーター便の週末運航について合意、台湾の観光や低迷する経済の活性化、さらなる中台交流に弾みをつけた。長年待望されていた進展を迎えた今、課題は関係改善に台湾市民の支持をとりつけることだ。経済回復と緊張緩和を望むものの、主権問題をないがしろにされるという不安を抱える市民が固執すれば、台中関係は逆戻りしてしまう。

中台間チャーター便は現在、年4回の祝日に指定されており、運行拡大が討議されてきたが、3月の馬英九・台湾総統当選で今回の合意が実現された。馬氏が経済回復という実利的な懸案事項を優先させた結果だ。

中台関係は馬氏就任以来、緊張緩和が進み、双方与党の高官レベルの会合を経て、今月中旬に10年ぶりの公式会談が行なわれた。チャーター便は7月4日から毎週末36往復、五輪開催後には96往復の運航を行なうことで合意された。

中国から日に最高3000人の観光客が訪れれば、台湾経済にとって大きなカンフル剤になる。一方で中国側は、関係緊密化による中台融合を狙っている。

中台の貿易総額は今年1月から4月で439億ドル、昨年比21.7％増だが、直行貨物便はそれに拍車をかけるだろう。台湾企業にとってはこの上ない展望だが、独立運動推進派にとっては統一への不吉な前兆だ。

中国は国際機関への台湾加盟を支持することで、台湾の懐疑主義者の心をつかむことができるかもしれない。今月半ばの合意は、双方が忍耐強く、創意工夫をこらして協力し合えば、望ましい結果を見出せる可能性があることを示した。