Too much for the G-8 alone
(From The Japan Times July 12 issue)

主要8ヵ国だけでは解決できない問題

The results of the Group of Eight summit in early July show that the topics discussed, such as global warming, and soaring oil and food prices, are so serious and of such great scale that the G-8 nations cannot alone solve them. Discussions on global warming in particular highlighted a division between the G-8 nations and emerging economies.

It is imperative that the leading industrialized nations and emerging economies do their utmost to overcome their differences. As Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, chair of the summit, said, all countries concerned, including their private sectors and civil societies, should participate in addressing the challenges the world faces, with the G-8 nations providing leadership.

The G-8 leaders made it clear that they will seek to share with other countries the goal of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50 percent by 2050 and together with them consider and adopt the goal under United Nations-led negotiations. They also said they will implement "ambitious" midterm goals in order to accomplish "absolute emissions reductions."

The parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change are to work out a new framework for emissions cuts by December 2009 to cover a period in and after 2013. The summit declaration on global warming does not commit the G-8 nations to their own specific quantitative goals. Even so, Mr. Fukuda should be commended for getting the United States, which has withdrawn from the Kyoto Protocol, to join the declaration.

However, a schism surfaced between the G-8 leaders and the leaders of eight other major economies — Brazil, China, India, Mexico, South Africa, Indonesia, South Korea and Australia — when they met in the summit venue of Toyako, Hokkaido, to discuss global warming.

The leaders of the 16 nations, which are members of the U.S.-initiated Major Economies Meeting on Energy Security and Climate Change (MEM), agreed that "deep cuts in global emissions" will be necessary to achieve the UNFCCC's objective and that it would be desirable for the parties to the convention to adopt a long-term global goal for world emissions cuts, "taking into account the principle of equity." But they failed to set any numerical targets such as 50 percent reductions by 2050.

This is because the emerging economies do not want their hands tied by emissions reductions obligations as they seek economic growth. They also think that the past industrial activities of developed nations are responsible for the current global warming crisis.

In fact, the leaders of Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa separately issued a declaration calling on the developed nations to cut their emissions by 80 percent to 95 percent by 2050 and by 25 percent to 40 percent by 2020.

Due to the lack of quantitative goals, the 16 MEM leaders' declaration does not appear very strong. It is also clear that the developed nations and the emerging countries will have a hard time in their efforts to fill their gap. But attention should be paid to the fact that the 16 nations anyhow agreed on the need for deep cuts in emissions and a long-term global reductions goal. These nations are responsible for about 80 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

The declaration in part said that the developed major economies will implement "economywide midterm goals," take corresponding actions to achieve "absolute emission reductions" and "where applicable, first stop the growth of emissions as soon as possible." It also said the developing major economies will pursue "nationally appropriate mitigation actions" in the context of sustainable development, "with a view to achieving a deviation from business-as-usual emissions."

These points can serve as a starting point for the developed nations and the emerging economies to launch a process to reach effective compromise. Japan should play the role of a catalyst to accelerate such a process.

On the problems of soaring oil and food prices, the G-8 leaders recognized the need for greater transparency of energy markets, and stressed the importance of reversing the overall decline of aid and investment in the agricultural sector. But they failed to deepen discussions on the limits of market mechanisms and were unable to present convincing solutions to the problems.

In the political arena, Mr. Fukuda succeeded in having the G-8 leaders urge North Korea to address human rights issues, including the abduction of Japanese nationals by the North, and call on all nuclear-weapons states to reduce such weapons in a transparent manner.

But we would like to remind all the parties concerned that these issues require concrete follow-up efforts.

7月初旬のG8サミットは、地球温暖化と原油・食料の高騰がG8諸国だけでは解決できないほど深刻化していること、温暖化問題でG8と新興国に温度差があること明らかにした。

違いを克服するには、議長の福田康夫首相の発言どおり、G8がリードし、関係国や民間、市民社会が全員参加で取り組まなければならない。

2013年以降の温暖化防止の取り組みについては、国連気候変動枠組み条約締約国会議の参加国が2009年12月までに枠組みを取りまとめる。G8環境宣言には中期の数値目標がないが、京都議定書を離脱した米国が半減目標の共有に合意したことは評価できる。

温暖化に関してG8と新興8カ国との歩調は合わなかった。米主導の主要経済国会合（MEM）16カ国の首脳は、気候変動枠組み条約のもとで公平の原則を考慮して長期目標を採択することが望ましいと合意したが、数値目標は盛り込まれなかった。

MEMは中期目標に関して、先進国間は排出量の絶対的削減を達成し、可能な限り早く排出量増加を停止するための対応をとるとした。新興国は対策を取らないシナリオ下での排出量からの離脱を達成するため、持続可能な開発の文脈で、国毎の適切な排出緩和の行動を遂行するとしている。以上の宣言は、先進国、新興国間で妥協を見出す出発点となる。日本はその促進役を果たすべきだ。

原油・食料高騰についてG8は、エネルギー市場透明化と、農業分野の援助・投資減少の反転を重視したが、具体的解決策は出なかった。

政治面では、北朝鮮に拉致問題など人権問題の解決を、核兵器保有国に透明な形での核兵器削減をという要望が宣言に盛り込まれた。これらすべてのの問題は引き続き具体的取り組みが必要である。