Pakistan's Musharraf resigns as president
(From The Japan Times August 20 issue)

ムシャラフ･パキスタン大統領辞任

After nine difficult years, Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf has resigned. A man once celebrated as the savior of his country has been forced from office, his reputation in tatters, his nation no better off than it was when he seized power. Mr. Musharraf's fate is a reminder of the folly of permitting autocrats to destroy democracy and the dangers of building relations with leaders, rather than the governments they represent.

Mr. Musharraf was Pakistan's Army chief of staff when he seized power in 1999, overthrowing then- Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif after the two men argued over the disastrous Kargil offensive. Many of Pakistan's friends were pleased to see Mr. Sharif and his government go, riddled as it was with corruption and incompetence. Mr. Musharraf's pledge to keep military rule short and pave the way for true democracy further encouraged those governments to swallow their complaints.

Instead, two years later, Mr. Musharraf declared himself president and rammed through legislation that legitimized his rule and extended his term. The election that followed in 2002 was roundly dismissed as rigged, but it gave Mr. Musharraf's new party a majority of seats in Parliament and provided a democratic veneer for his continued rule. He tried to engineer a similar outcome when faced with the next round of parliamentary elections five years later, but his efforts — particularly when he tried to force the chief justice of the Supreme Court, Mr. Iftikhar Chaudhry, to resign — drew up the judiciary and the opposition against him. He imposed emergency rule before the election to purge the judiciary, but damage was done.

Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto returned from eight years in exile to challenge Mr. Musharraf. Amid speculation that a deal would be struck between the two, Ms. Bhutto was assassinated, triggering charges that the government had not provided protection for her and a tidal wave of support for her Pakistan People's Party, which won a huge victory in parliamentary elections two months later. After the vote, the Pakistan People's Party and Mr. Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-N formed an alliance.

Their coalition government failed at first, but the two main parties remained united in their opposition to Mr. Musharraf's rule. They agreed on a call for his impeachment, which has been gathering steam. Sensing that his time was up, Mr. Musharraf stepped down Aug. 18. It was not immediately known whether Mr. Musharraf would remain in Pakistan or go into exile.

Mr. Musharraf will be remembered for helping right Pakistan's economy. For much of his tenure, the economy expanded, growing as much as 7 percent a year in the past five years; it grew some 6 percent in 2007. The end of the civilian kleptocracy helped, as well as the stability that accompanied the early years of his administration.

Pakistan was also helped by the more than $10 billion in aid that the United States poured into the country as part of its fight against terrorism. Mr. Musharraf was a favored diplomatic partner of U.S. President George W. Bush, a status won by his early support for the United States after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. Two other factors contributed to the solidity of that relationship: The fact that Mr. Musharraf was a Muslim leader and that he was ready to use Pakistani troops to fight al-Qaida, and let the United States use Pakistan bases.

While his crackdown against extremists won international support, those same policies helped erode his standing at home. After hundreds of its supporters were arrested, al-Qaida declared war against Mr. Musharraf, and he was the target of several assassination attempts.

Attempts to impose order in the border regions with Afghanistan resulted in big losses for the army and the signing of deals with local warlords that essentially created sanctuaries for Taliban fighters fleeing Afghanistan as long as they did not commit acts of violence in Pakistan.

In recent months, the economy has been deteriorating, a result of skyrocketing energy prices that pushed inflation up to nearly 25 percent. Extremists have launched a wave of suicide attacks that have claimed hundreds of lives. Mr. Musharraf's accomplishments have evaporated, and he looks like just another tired autocrat, clinging to power. While Mr. Bush remains loyal as ever to his friends, the special relationship with the United States has been damaged by allegations that parts of the Pakistan government supported recent terror attacks in India and continue to back the Taliban.

Mr. Musharraf's is a cautionary tale. His rise and fall is a reminder that power may not always corrupt, but it certainly erodes. Pakistan's friends should be sobered by his descent. They must remember that enduring relationships depend not on personalities but on the convergence of national interests. Good governance depends, ultimately, on institutions, not individuals, no matter how well intentioned.

波乱の9年を経て、パキスタンのムシャラフ大統領が辞任した。かつて救世主と称えられた氏は退陣を迫られ、信用は落ち、国が豊かになったとも言えない。氏の運命は、独裁者が民主主義崩壊を許す愚かさと、他国とではなくその指導者と関係を築く危険性を象徴する。

陸軍参謀長だった氏は1999年、時の首相シャリフとカルギル戦争をめぐる争いで政権を奪取。しかし2年後、氏は大統領を名乗り、支配を正当化し任期を延長する法律を強引に可決。不正が非難された2002年の選挙で自身の党に議会で過半数を与え、見せかけの民主政治を続けた。5年後にチョードリー最高裁長官に辞任を迫る行為で司法と野党の反撃を受けた。

氏に対抗するため8年の亡命から戻ったブット元首相が暗殺された2ヵ月後、彼女のパキスタン人民党が議会選挙で勝利、パキスタン・イスラム教徒連盟シャリフ派と連立を組んだ。反ムシャラフで結束した連立による弾劾を避け、氏は8月18日に辞任。

氏の功績は経済再建だろう。過去5年に年7％の伸び、昨年6％の成長を見せた。テロとの戦いで米国から100億ドルの支援を受けたことも大きい。9･11テロ直後に米国を支持、アルカイダとの戦いに熱心なイスラム教指導者として、ブッシュ米大統領の支持を得た。

過激派の弾圧で国際的に認められたが、一方で国内ではアルカイダの暗殺計画の標的となる。アフガニスタンとの国境沿いの治安維持で軍が疲弊、地方軍閥たちと協定を結んだことで同地域はタリバンの聖域となってしまった。

さらにエネルギー高騰でインフレ悪化、過激派は自爆テロを繰り返し、功績が薄れたムシャラフ氏は権力にしがみつく疲れた独裁者と化した。また、パキスタン政府の一部がインドでのテロ攻撃やタリバンの活動を支持しているとの疑惑は、米国との関係を揺るがせた。

権力は腐敗するとは限らないが、確実に損なわれることを氏の盛衰は示す。国家間の関係持続は、人物ではなく国益の合致の上に成り立つことを同盟国は忘れてはならない。良い統治とは結局、善意の個人ではなく、制度次第なのだ。