Political reconciliation agreement is critical to solve Afghan crisis?
(From The Japan Times Oct. 18 issue)

アフガン危機解決に必要な政治的和解

Seven years after coalition forces invaded Afghanistan and drove the Taliban from power, the war slogs on. The initial euphoria from the "victory" has dissipated. Officials are increasingly concerned about the Taliban's resurgence and the durability of the government of President Hamid Karzai. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has recognized the need for a new approach. Its leaders have agreed to begin to target Afghanistan's opium trade, a move that could deprive the Taliban of the funds it uses to finance its forces. Just as important, the coalition now looks set to adopt the lessons of Iraq and reach out to those elements of the opposition with whom it can craft a political reconciliation agreement. There is a long way to go before such a deal can be reached in Kabul, but recognition of the need for such an approach is a critical first step.

In a recent interview about the situation in Afghanistan, British Brig. Gen. Mark Carleton Smith conceded that "we're not going to win this war" and the public should not expect "decisive military victory," a view shared by a French counterpart, Gen. Jean Louis Georgelin, who agreed that "there is no military solution to the Afghan crisis."

Those remarks are more nuanced than they seem. Those men — and plenty of other officials agree with them — are arguing that in Afghanistan, as in Iraq, the military cannot resolve the conflict on its own. Gen. Carleton Smith explained that it would be "unrealistic and probably incredible" to think that coalition forces could eliminate the local armed bands that have plundered the country for centuries. Rather, the objective should be "reducing it to a manageable level of insurgency that's not a strategic threat and can be managed by the Afghan Army."

That will permit a real and enduring victory, which will be based on political reconciliation among all the factions that are prepared to join the democratically elected Afghan government. And yes, that will have to include some members of the Taliban. U.S. and NATO officials acknowledge as much. Some talks have begun, and they should be pursued with vigor and honesty. But the condition for participation in those talks is commitment to democracy and a readiness to work with the existing government — or contesting it through the ballot, not by force of arms. Coalition officials take heart from the success of the "Sunni awakening" in Iraq: Outreach to former opponents of the regime in Baghdad turned Sunni tribesman there against al-Qaida. A similar effort could succeed in Afghanistan.

NATO nations have also been asked to increase force levels in Afghanistan. The U.S. force commander in Afghanistan has requested as many as 20,000 more troops to supplement the 51,000-strong International Security Assistance Force (ISAF); another 20,000 U.S. forces operate outside that command structure. Those increased troop levels will be critical in helping stabilize the country in the run-up to the presidential election that will be held later next year. The last such ballot in Afghanistan vindicated the decision to invade: The massive turnout, in the face of threats from the Taliban, showed that Afghans want the freedom and democracy that they have been given. They deserve our continuing support and assistance.

The changes in NATO's Afghan approach represent a return to the basic tenets of strategy. Military force alone cannot produce enduring political outcomes. Peace depends on reconciliation — or as Clausewitz sagely noted, war is politics by other means. Astute leadership requires a constant check to ensure that the ends and means are aligned. This balance is especially critical as Japan assesses its involvement in Afghanistan.

多国籍軍がアフガニスタンに進攻、タリバン政権崩壊から7年、テロとの戦いの足取りは重い。当初の「勝利」による高揚感は消え、当局はタリバンの盛り返しとカルザイ政権の存続に不安を抱いている。NATO指導者らはタリバンの資金源となる麻薬密輸を攻撃対象とすることで合意、多国籍軍は対抗勢力と政治的和解を結ぼうとしている。新たな取り組みの必要性を認めたことは重要な一歩だ。

英軍のマーク･カールトン・スミス准将は、「この戦いには勝てない」、国民は「明確な軍事的勝利」を期待すべきではないと述べた。仏軍のジャン・ルイ・ジョルジュラン大将も「アフガン危機への軍事的解決法はない」と同意している。カールトン・スミス准将は、長年、国を略奪してきた地元武装勢力を多国籍軍が排除するのは「非現実的で途方もない」、「アフガン軍が対応できる、戦略的脅威とならないレベルまで武装勢力を弱める」べきだと語った。

それこそが、民主的政府への参加に意欲的な派閥との政治的和解に基づく揺るぎない勝利をもたらす。NATOはアフガン増派を呼びかけ、現地の米軍司令官は国際治安支援部隊への増派最大2万人を求めた。前回の大統領選ではタリバンの脅威の中、多くの国民が自由と民主主義を求めて投票、アフガン侵攻が正当化されたが、大統領選を来年に控えた今も我々の支援が必要とされる。

NATOのアフガン政策変換は、軍事力のみで持続的な政治的成果は得られずという戦略の基本的教義を表す。和平には和解が必要で、軍事学者クラウゼヴィッツ曰く、戦争とは他の手段をもってする政治の継続にすぎない。目的と手段の合致は常に確認が必要で、日本がアフガニスタンとの関わりを判断する際にも非常に重要だ。