A year of historic changes starts around the world with strains and stresses
(From The Japan Times Jan. 3 issue)

世界に歴史的変化が訪れる年

In 2008, talk of change was everywhere. This year that talk will be realized as historic changes take place around the world. In most cases, the process will be gradual and evolutionary. But we must also be prepared for revolutionary transformations as accumulated strains and stresses produce paradigm shifts.

This process will be exhilarating and nerve-racking. Accepted beliefs and behaviors will be challenged; frequently they will have to be discarded. Uncomfortable though this will be, there is no room for complacency or a stubborn refusal to acknowledge the obvious.

In Japan, there is every indication that 2009 will be the year in which the opposition is very likely to take the reins of government from the Liberal Democratic Party at long last. That would be a historical moment for Japan, yet it would be but one step in a longer process of political evolution and growth. Even if that transition does not occur — and Japanese politics is always unpredictable — politicians and bureaucrats will be absorbed with either preparing for that shift or fighting it off. The country's problems will not wait, however. The failure to devote more attention and energy to them now means that they will only get bigger — and a crisis will eliminate any choices we have about tackling them at our convenience.

An equally significant, but more certain change will take place in the United States. In fact, two changes will occur. The first is the departure of Mr. George W. Bush from the White House, a move that will be greeted with near unanimous applause. We say that with no malice: A recent opinion poll shows that 75 percent of Americans are glad he is leaving office. That relief is also evident in other countries where Mr. Bush is considered a reckless cowboy who practiced unilateralism and disregarded international law.

The arrival of Mr. Barack Obama at the White House is the second part of that equation, a truly historic event in its own right. It is difficult to appreciate the impact of having a black man as president. For many people, it is the realization of the promise of the United States. Indeed, his election by itself produced a dramatic shift in perceptions, and a subtle addition to America's international strength and standing.

This one-two punch is not mere symbolism: It has the potential to change international political dynamics. The Unted States has been reeling in recent years, rocked by the Iraq war, its tactics in the "war on terror" and the financial crisis. The advent of the Obama administration changes the U.S. image and could usher in a new era of international cooperation as countries that once could not or would not work with Washington are now free to do so. The question is whether those nations are prepared for a U.S. government that reaches out to them and treats them as the partners that they have insisted they are.

If this new spirit exists, it will first manifest itself in efforts to tackle the financial and economic crisis. Crudely put, a large part of the world's wealth has proven illusory. It is easy to blame Americans for living beyond their means, but their profligacy paid the wages of millions of workers around the world and supported corporate balance sheets. Banks everywhere were complicit in the financial misdeeds that created this crisis, and their profits trickled down too. Most, if not all, of us enjoyed some of those "ill-gotten" gains. Now we must all bear the price of adjustment and it is unclear how profound that adjustment will be. The scale of the downturn that lies ahead — some fear another Great Depression — suggests that it will be great.

The looming economic crunch could have a silver lining. The breakneck growth of the past has exacted a horrific environmental toll. It is most evident in China, but we will all pay the price of climate change. But a slowdown is not a solution. The new government in Washington and the economic downturn provide the world with a chance to reassess priorities, and begin making real progress in this fight. The painful truth is that success necessitates a radical shift in thinking by consumers and producers. New balances must be struck and "quality of life" must take on a new meaning. Facing this new reality will not be comfortable: We have to change the way we think and act in most endeavors. But we have no choice. After years of calling for change, change has been forced upon us. Such is the promise of 2009.

人々が変化を語った2008年が去り、今年は世界で歴史的変化が起こる。段階的プロセスが主だが、ひずみと圧迫の蓄積で生じるパラダイムシフトによる革命的変化も覚悟すべきだ。

日本では自民党から野党への政権交代の可能性が高まっている。仮に政権交代とならずとも、政治家や官僚は起こりうる変化への対応に追われ、その間、国の諸問題は拡大し続ける。

米国ではブッシュ大統領の退任を喜ぶ国民が75％に達した。米国初の黒人大統領就任は歴史的出来事であり、多くの人にとって米国の希望の実現を意味する。オバマ氏の当選は人々の認識を変え、国際社会における米国の力と地位の向上に貢献した。

オバマ政権の誕生は、イラク戦争やテロとの闘い、金融危機で疲弊した米国のイメージを一新させ、米政府と新たに協力関係を結ぶ国も出てくるだろう。それらの国々は、パートナーとして手を差し伸べてくる米国を受け入れる態勢を整える必要がある。

新たな協調の精神は、まず金融危機対策に生かされるだろう。世界の富の大半は架空だとわかった今、米国人の身分不相応な消費を責めるのは簡単だが、それが各国の労働者と企業を支えたことも確かだ。大恐慌の再来が恐れられる中、私たちが払う代償はとてつもなく大きい。

米新政権発足と経済危機は、経済成長と環境保護の優先順位の見直しをもたらした。消費者も生産者も考え方を根本から変え、「生活の質」を問わなければならない。考え方や行動を改めるのは容易ではないが、それ以外に道はない。変化を求める時期が過ぎ、変化を遂げるときが来た。それが2009年の展望だ。