North Korea's intention
(From The Japan Times Feb. 2 issue)

矛盾発言の裏にある北朝鮮の意図

The six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons programs may take a new turn on the heels of Mr. Barack Obama's becoming the 44th president of the United States. But it is unclear whether the talks will progress toward hoped-for results in a short time.

North Korea has made conflicting statements since just before and after Mr. Obama's inauguration. They may just be negotiation tactics aimed at raising the ante or represent different tacks adopted by the country's leadership and its military hard-liners.

On Jan. 24, when North Korean leader Kim Jong Il met with Mr. Wang Jiarui, the Chinese Communist Party's international department director, Mr. Kim was quoted as saying that Pyongyang "is dedicated to denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, and hopes to peacefully coexist with all sides and does not want to see tension on the peninsula." It was Mr. Kim's first such appearance since reportedly suffering a stroke in August. He seemed set to go ahead with denuclearization if conditions are met.

Yet, Jan. 17, Mr. Selig Harrison, Asia program director of the Washington-based Center for International Policy, who had met with North Korean officials in the middle of January, quoted them as saying that "North Korea is now a nuclear weapons state and won't give up that status as a result of denuclearization talks." The officials were also quoted as saying that North Korea has already "weaponized" 30.8 kg of plutonium — listed earlier in its declaration of nuclear weapons programs — and that the weapons cannot be inspected, according to Mr. Harrison.

The same day, the North Korean Army said it would take an "all-out confrontational posture" against the South and wipe out the government of President Lee Myung-bak, who is taking a tough policy line toward Pyongyang. On Jan. 30, the North said it will terminate all agreements with the South aimed at ending confrontation. It is hoped that the United States will use all available means to get North Korea to denuclearize, including cooperating more with China and taking a leading role in the six-party talks, without being swayed by the North's tactical moves.

オバマ新米大統領就任で、核問題をめぐる6カ国協議は新たな展開を見せるかもしれないが、短期間でよい結果が出るかどうかは疑問だ。米大統領就任前後で北朝鮮の態度が矛盾するのは、交渉戦術もしくは北朝鮮の指導部と軍の強硬派の方針の違いによるものかもしれない。

金正日総書記は1月24日、朝鮮半島の非核化へのコミットを表明した。しかし北朝鮮高官は自国について「核保有国であり、非核化協議でそれをあきらめることはない」、プルトニウム30キロは「すべて武器化され検証できない」と述べた。

北朝鮮は韓国との「全面対決姿勢」を表明、1月30日には南北合意をすべて無効にすると発表した。米国が北朝鮮の戦術に惑わされず、中国と協力を深めるなど、あらゆる方法で北朝鮮非核化を目指すことを望む。