United action is imperative to prevent North Korea's satellite launch
(From The Japan Times March 21 issue)

北朝鮮の衛星打ち上げ防止で団結を

North Korea has notified two United Nations agencies — the International Maritime Organization and the International Civil Aviation Organization — of its plan to launch a communications satellite between April 4 and 8. The first stage of the rocket is expected to fall in the Sea of Japan only about 120 km from the western coast of the Tohoku region, and the second stage in the middle of the Pacific Ocean between Japan and Hawaii.

North Korea has the right to launch a satellite for peaceful use of space. But in view of its nuclear development program, the October 2006 explosion of a nuclear device and its missile development, the same technology it is using to launch a satellite could be used to launch a nuclear-tipped, long-range ballistic missile. Therefore, the satellite launch would pose a threat to Japan and other nations. It would raise the tension in East Asia and could trigger an arms race there.

In August 1998, North Korea launched a Taepodong-1 missile, which flew over Japan and fell into the Pacific. In July 2006, it launched a Taepodong-2 missile, which blew up soon after the launch, and six other missiles. Following the North's nuclear explosion, the United Nations Security Council adopted a resolution that demanded that North Korea carry out no more nuclear explosions or missile tests.

For the 1998 and 2006 missile tests, North Korea did not give advance notices to any of the two U.N. agencies. Its notification this time that it would launch a satellite is apparently designed to do an end run around the UNSC resolution. But Japan, the United States and South Korea take the position that even a satellite launch violates the resolution.

North Korea apparently views the satellite launch as a means of strengthening its negotiating position in the six-party talks over the North's nuclear weapons program and in bilateral talks with the United States. To counter the North's move, it is imperative for Japan, the United States and South Korea to gain the cooperation of China and Russia to dissuade the North from proceeding with the satellite launch, and to take united action in case Pyongyang goes ahead with it.

北朝鮮は4月4日から8日の間に通信衛星を打ち上げると通告した。ロケット第1段目は日本海、第2段目は太平洋に落下するという。北朝鮮には平和利用目的での衛星打ち上げの権利がある。しかしその技術は核開発計画や2006年の核爆弾爆発、ミサイル開発に照らして、核弾頭搭載の長距離弾道ミサイルに転用可能で、東アジアの緊張と軍拡競争を招きかねない。

2006年10月、国連安保理は北朝鮮に対し核爆発やミサイル実験を行なわないよう求める決議を出した。今回の事前通告は同決議をかわすためと思われるが、日米韓は衛星発射だとしても安保理決議に違反するとしている。

北朝鮮は衛星発射を6カ国協議や米朝協議を有利に進める手段とみている。日米韓は中国やロシアと協調して北朝鮮への圧力を強め、発射が強行された場合は連携した措置をとるべきだ。