Situation in Iran not quite back to normal despite final decision
(From The Japan Times July 2 issue)

イラン大統領選最終発表後も続く闘い

Iran's powerful Guardian Council on June 29 formally certified incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the winner of the June 12 presidential election, whose results have been contested by forces supporting moderate reform candidates former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi and former Iranian Parliament Speaker Mehdi Karroubi.

After a random recount of 10 percents of the ballot boxes in Tehran and some provinces, the council concluded that election irregularities were not large enough to nullify the results. This is the final decision and there will be no new presidential election.

The initial announcement that Mr. Ahmadinejad garnered some 25 million votes against Mr. Mousavi's some 13 million touched off daily mass protest demonstrations by Mr. Mousavi's supporters because of pre-election forecasts that the race would be neck and neck. Crackdowns by security authorities led to more than 20 deaths and reduced the turnouts for demonstrations. More than 650 people are reported to have been detained.

Although the reform forces have lost the legal means to have a new presidential election held, it is significant that the Guardian Council partially accepted the call by the forces supporting Mr. Mousavi for a recount of ballots. Clearly, the powerful body could not ignore domestic and international criticism.

There are also signs that supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's authority has been shaken. He criticized the demonstrations by the reform forces, but they continued even after he demanded that they stop.

Former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who heads two powerful bodies, somewhat distanced himself from supreme leader Khamenei by supporting Mr. Mousavi during the election campaign, although he eventually supported the continuation of the present regime.

The presidential election appears to have created a division in Iran. Further clampdowns on the opposition forces will only have the effect of aggravating the situation further.

穏健改革派ムサビ元首相とカルビ元国議長の支持者らが不正を訴えたイラン大統領選に対し、護憲評議会はアフマディネジャド大統領再選を確定した。

評議会は無作為に抽出した10％の投票箱を再集計し、不正は認められたものの選挙結果が無効になるほどではないとして再選挙を却下した。接戦という予想と裏腹に、大統領が250万票、元首相が130万票獲得という当初の発表は、元首相支持者による抗議デモにつながった。

改革派は再選挙という法的手段を失ったが、評議会が国内外の批判を受け、元首相支持者らに応じて再集計を実施したことは重要だ。最高指導者ハメネイ師が禁止令を発した後もデモは続き、師の権威は揺らいだ。

政界の重鎮ラフサンジャニ元大統領は、選挙戦中はムサビ元首相を支持したが、最終的には現政権維持を支持した。反政府勢力に対する弾圧強化は、大統領選が招いたイランの分裂を悪化させるだけだ。