The LDP in sheer disarray with anti-Aso sentiment smoldering
(From The Japan Times July 17 issue)

反麻生の動きに混乱する自民党

The ruling and opposition blocs are heading for a showdown in the general election as the opposition bloc in the Upper House on July 14 passed a censure motion against Prime Minister Aso Taro and started boycotting all Diet proceedings. Separately, in the Lower House, the ruling bloc earlier in the day had voted down the opposition bloc's no-confidence motion against the Aso Cabinet.

On July 13, Mr. Aso announced he will dissolve the Lower House July 21 and hold a snap election Aug. 30. The run-up to the election will allow each group time to overcome its weaknesses, and devise appealing and persuasive election promises.

What is unusual with regard to Mr. Aso's decision is that it is unclear what he wants to achieve if his party wins the election. In the wake of the retrenchment policy line pursued by the administration of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, the social security of the nation, including pensions and medical services, has weakened, creating anxiety among people about their future lives. The global financial crisis has caused a downturn in the economy and made many people jobless.

The Aso administration has gradually demolished Mr. Koizumi's policy line by showering money on various projects to stimulate the economy. But Mr. Aso has not made clear what kind of grand policy line he would like to pursue. Within the LDP, party bigwigs continue to demand a replacement for the unpopular Mr. Aso. But focusing attention on finding a figure who merely attracts voters on election day will lead to further political decay.

The opposition Democratic Party of Japan, meanwhile, is receiving support from voters fed up with Mr. Aso's politics as reflected by DPJ victories in a series of important local elections, including its impressive showing in the July 12 Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election. But calling only for a change of government will not satisfy voters. Each party needs to show voters what it thinks are the basic problems the nation is facing and how to overcome them. A political party's basic function is to develop workable policies.

With the nation at a critical juncture, the latest developments portray an LDP in sheer confusion unbecoming to a ruling party. It would not be far-fetched to say that the party lacks integrity and the power to unify its members under its leader, Mr. Aso.

For one thing, the unsuccessful attempt by Mr. Makoto Koga, chairman of the LDP Election Strategy Council, to recruit Gov. Hideo Higashikokubaru of Miyazaki Prefecture, a former comedian, as an LDP candidate in the coming general election has tarnished the LDP's reputation because Mr. Koga's sole purpose appeared to have the popular governor serve as leverage to boost the LDP's popularity.

Such public relations-oriented gestures at a time when people want a grand vision for the future of Japan and solid policy proposals from the political parties only help to increase people's distrust of the LDP.

Mr. Koga resigned as an expression of responsibility for his failed approach to Mr. Higashikokubaru and the LDP's crushing defeat in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election. Mr. Koga was supposed to play a commanding role in the coming general election. Many people will now think that they cannot entrust government to a party whose election strategy chief runs away just before the election.

Although LDP Lower House members united in voting down the opposition forces' no-confidence motion against the Aso Cabinet, what followed is beyond normal comprehension. Some LDP lawmakers have intensified efforts to pick a new party president to replace Mr. Aso, hoping that the new leader will help the LDP get more votes in the general election.

Former LDP Secretary General Hidenao Nakagawa and others have led this move by calling for a conference of LDP members from both chambers of the Diet. Such a conference can decide to move forward the date of an LDP presidential election. If this keeps up, we may see the strange case of a new party president leading the election campaign while Mr. Aso remains as prime minister. Those calling for the conference have collected enough signatures under party rules to get the leadership to hold it.

The outlook is ominous for Mr. Aso. Two Cabinet members ― Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano and farm minister Shigeru Ishiba ― have told Mr. Aso in person that the LDP under his leadership will lose in general election, hinting that he should step down.

There is even a move among some anti-Aso LDP lawmakers to run as LDP candidates under election promises that differ from the party's official platform. Such campaigns would destroy the principle of party politics.

参院で首相問責決議案が可決、衆院で内閣不信任決議案が否決され、野党が両院で審議拒否に入る中、与野党は総選挙での対決に向かう。

麻生首相は7月21日に衆院解散、来月30日投開票との日程を発表、各党は総選挙までに説得力のある選挙公約作りを進めることになる。

自民党が衆院選で勝利した場合、首相は何を実現したいのか。小泉政権の緊縮政策のもと社会保障が抑制され、国民は将来に不安を感じている。世界的金融危機は不況を招き、失業者が増えた。麻生政権は小泉改革を徐々に転換し、さまざまな経済刺激策を打ち出したが、今後どんな施政方針を実現するのか。自民党内の大物が「麻生降ろし」を求めているが、選挙の人気取りのための候補者擁立は、政治腐敗を深めるだけだ。

首相不人気で民主党は都議選を含む大型地方選で勝ち続けたが、政権交代を叫ぶだけでなく、各党が国の問題を指摘し具体策を掲げるべきだ。

自民党は首相の求心力低下で与党らしからぬ大混乱に陥っている。古賀選挙対策委員長が東国原・宮崎県知事に衆院選出馬を要請したが失敗。この騒動と都議選大敗の責任を取って古賀氏は辞任を表明。選挙直前に選対委員長が辞める党は信頼に足るだろうか。

衆院で自民党員は結束して内閣不信任を否決した。しかし総選挙での自民勝利を狙って新総裁を選ぶ動きを強めている議員もいる。

反麻生派の自民党議員の中には自民党候補として、党の綱領とは別に独自のマニフェストで選挙に臨もうという動きも出ている。そのような選挙運動は政党政治を崩壊させるだろう。