Impetus for a low-carbon world
(From The Japan Times Sept. 11 issue)

積極的削減目標で低炭素社会へ弾み

Mr. Yukio Hatoyama, head of the Democratic Party of Japan and prime-minister-in-waiting, has announced that Japan will seek a 25 percent cut in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels by 2020. This is an ambitious target that could put Japan on the path to a low-carbon society. It could also give impetus to international efforts to work out a new framework for reducing emissions in and after 2013. The Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012.

In June, Prime Minister Taro Aso proposed reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 15 percent from 2005 levels by 2020 (8 percent reduction from 1990s levels). This represents net reductions in emissions in Japan. Mr. Hatoyama's target is believed to include reductions that developing countries have achieved as a result of Japan's financial and technological assistance, and gas absorption by forests.

Japan's emissions increased 9 percent in fiscal 2007 from fiscal 1990 levels. Under the Kyoto Protocol Japan must, between fiscal 2008 and fiscal 2012, reduce emissions by 6 percent from 1990 levels. It is almost a foregone conclusion that some industries in Japan will put up strong resistance to Mr. Hatoyama's severe target. The DPJ leader took a top-down approach, apparently to force a transformation of industrial structure conducive to large emissions cuts.

The DPJ needs to show as soon as possible a detailed and concrete road map for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It also may have to reconsider its plan to make expressways toll-free, a move that environmental groups fear will lead to increased use of expressways and, therefore, more carbon dioxide emissions.

Japan's greenhouse gas emissions account for about 4 percent of the global total (compared to about 40 percent by the United States and China combined). Mr. Hatoyama said Japan's efforts alone cannot stop global warming and made it clear that his promise won't become effective unless other major emitter countries agree to emission-reduction efforts. To facilitate negotiations, Japan should present effective proposals to enable developing countries to combat global warming.

鳩山次期首相は温室効果ガスの排出を2020年までに1990年比25 % 減とする目標を示した。日本を低炭素社会へ導く大胆な目標で「ポスト京都議定書」の世界的試みにも弾みがつくだろう。

麻生首相が6月に国内での温室効果ガス純減で2005年比15 % 減（90年比8 % 減）を表明したが、鳩山氏の数値は、日本の技術や資金による海外での削減分などの「排出権」も含むとみられる。

日本は2007年度排出量が90年比9 % 増、議定書による目標は2008〜12年の平均排出量90年比6 % 減だ。産業界の反発を見据え、鳩山氏はトップダウン式で産業構造変革による削減を目指した。

民主党は削減の詳細な指針を早急に示すべきだ。高速道路無料化の再考も必要かもしれない。鳩山氏は、削減目標の約束は主要排出国の参加が前提と述べた。交渉促進に向けて、途上国に効果的な温暖化対策を提案する必要がある。