More doubts about Copenhagen
(From The Japan Times Oct. 31 issue)

COP15議定書採択に暗い見通し

The prospects for success at the United Nations meeting in December in Copenhagen to devise a global accord to fight global warming appear to be receding. Ironically, one reason for the growing pessimism is the bilateral agreement struck by China and India, two of the world's leading producers of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Their deal demands that developed nations take the lead in efforts to slow global warming. It is a signal to the rest of the world that Beijing and New Delhi have other options.

High stakes rest on the COP 15 U.N. Climate Change Conference. The meeting is supposed to develop a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, the landmark agreement that sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European Community for reducing GHG emissions.

Unfortunately, the United States, until recently the world's leading GHG emitter, refused to join the Kyoto agreement, arguing that developing economies had to be included in any deal. Kyoto expires in 2012 and the fate of its successor rests on that question: What burden will developing countries bear in the fight against global warming?

Developing economies insist that they should not be forced to reduce emissions to combat a problem they did not create. Despite their many differences on other topics, this issue unites the developing world as the India-China deal attests. The two countries, which account for about one-quarter of global GHG emissions, signed a memorandum of understanding by which they will coordinate efforts to combat climate change.

Most important, they agreed that it is the primary responsibility of developed countries to deal with this problem, and that those same countries should provide financial resources, technology transfers and capacity-building support to developing countries. According to Mr. Jairam Ramesh, India's environment minister, there is "no difference" between India and China's position on climate change.

Not surprisingly, there is concern about the prospective outcome at Copenhagen. Mr. Yvo De Boer, executive secretary of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, warned that the summit may be "half baked" if developed nations do not step up and take more responsibility for this problem, and that "time is running out." His pessimism is matched by that of Mr. Lu Xuedu, deputy director of China's National Climate Center and a senior official in China's climate talks delegation, who sees "retrogression" in climate talks. Developing countries have been "shocked" by the developing world's demand that they do more, said Mr. Lu. That echoes the view of Mr. Ramesh, who argued that trust between developed and developing nations "broke down" at the last round of climate negotiations.

That has to be fixed, and quickly. According to the U.N., developed nations increased emissions of GHGs in 2007; emissions by the 40 nations classified as industrialized according to the Kyoto Protocol climbed by 1 percent, rising for the seventh consecutive year. China is not one of the 40 nations, but the International Energy Agency says Chinese output of carbon dioxide rose 7.6 percent from 2006 to 2007 and it surpassed the United States as the world's leading emitter of GHGs. Experts expect a stall in emissions growth when the 2008 results are released — not because of any new determination to solve the problem but because of the global economic slowdown.

That is not good enough. Growth will resume and that will intensify climate change. Rhetorically, at least, world leaders understand the challenge. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama pledged that Japan would reduce CO2 emissions to 25 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 — if a deal is struck in Copenhagen. Chinese President Hu Jintao in September said China would cut emissions in proportion to economic growth, but he did not set specific goals or whether they would be included in a global agreement. U.S. President Barack Obama has warned of the "potentially cataclysmic disaster" threatened by global warming.

Unfortunately, no one leader alone can deliver on those promises. They may have recognized the problem, but they face powerful resistance within their political systems and other constituencies. The sad result is that there is likely to be no resolution at Copenhagen. That does not mean that there will be no agreement; rather, expect a series of incremental steps that keep the negotiating process alive and produce an agreement next year. That might seem like a defeat, but it is far better than a total breakdown and all the disastrous consequences that would follow.

来月コペンハーゲンで開かれる「国連気候変動枠組み条約第15回締約国会議（COP15）」の成果が危ぶまれている。温暖化ガス排出大国の中印が、先進国こそ率先して温暖化を防止すべきだという意見で一致していることも理由の一つだ。

COP15は大きな賭けだ。2012年に終了する京都議定書に続く新議定書採択を目指すが、最近まで最大排出国だった米国は、途上国に対する義務付けがないことを理由に京都議定書を離脱したまま、復帰していない。「ポスト京都」採択の鍵は、途上国の負担のあり方にかかっている。

中印は、温暖化の責任は主に先進国にあるとして、途上国に対する資金や技術移転での援助、能力強化支援を求めている。

COP15の成果を危ぶむ声は多い。先進国がより多くの責任を負う姿勢を示さなければ会議は不十分な結果に終わる、残された時間は少ない、と同条約事務局のデブア事務局長は警告した。

先進国と途上国の溝は早く埋めるべきだ。先進40ヵ国の温暖化ガス排出は7年連続で増加。そこに含まれない中国は、2006〜2007年で排出量7.6％増、最大の温暖化ガス排出国となった。

鳩山首相はCOP15での合意を条件に、2020年までにCO2排出量の1990年比25％削減を誓った。中国の胡主席は、排出量の伸びを経済成長ペース以下にすると述べたが、具体的数値目標は掲げず、国際的合意に目標を盛り込むとも明言しなかった。オバマ米大統領は、温暖化による取り返しのつかない惨劇を警告している。

残念ながらいかなる政治家も公約実行は一人ではできない。政治団体の反発もある。COP15では合意は達成されそうにないが、来年の合意に向けた協議継続が予想される。失敗のように感じるかもしれないが、完全機能停止で深刻な結果に陥るよりはるかにいい。