Nagasaki shows DPJ fault line
(From The Japan Times Feb. 24 issue)

長崎知事選で民主敗北の痛手

Acandidate supported by the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito clobbered a candidate officially endorsed by the Democratic Party of Japan and its two coalition partners in the Feb. 21 Nagasaki gubernatorial election. The outcome shows that many voters are displeased with the irregularities involving the political funds of Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama and the DPJ Secretary General Ichiro Ozawa. On the same day, in the mayoral election in Machida, Tokyo, the DPJ also lost to a candidate (the incumbent mayor) who was supported by the LDP and Komeito.

The blow to the DPJ appears even more serious in view of its general dominance in Nagasaki Prefecture, where it monopolizes the two Upper House seats and captured all four single-seat constituencies in the Lower House election last August. The DPJ's sweep in the August election led to the decision by incumbent Gov. Genjiro Kaneko, a former LDP Lower House member, not to seek re-election for a fourth term, which necessitated the Feb. 21 poll.

Voter interest was high. Turnout was 60.08 percent, 7.81 percentage points higher than the election four years ago. Mr. Hodo Nakamura, a former vice governor regarded as the logical heir to Gov. Kaneko, trounced Mr. Tsuyoshi Hashimoto, the DPJ-endorsed candidate and former farm ministry bureaucrat, with 316,603 votes to 222,565 votes.

Mr. Hatoyama and Mr. Ozawa will have difficulty rallying support for the administration and their party unless they can fully explain matters related to their political finances in the Diet. If they fail to take appropriate steps in this direction, strong calls may arise within the DPJ for Mr. Ozawa to step down from his post before the Upper House election. The result in Nagasaki also shows that the DPJ needs to focus on improving local economies and strengthening the regional arms of its political machine.

Still, the LDP has little reason to feel buoyed. Its failure to officially endorse Mr. Nakamura shows its lack of confidence. A local poll conducted by the Nagasaki Shimbun 10 days before the election showed that support for the LDP had dipped some seven points since last summer's Lower House election.

長崎県知事選で、自民、公明両党が支援した前副知事が、民主など与党3党推薦の元農水官僚に9万票の差をつけて圧勝、鳩山首相や小沢幹事長の政治資金問題に対する有権者の不満が表れた形となった。同日、東京都町田市長選でも与党推薦候補が自公の支持する候補に敗れた。

昨夏の総選挙で県内の4小選挙区すべてで民主党が勝ち、選挙区選出の参院議員2人も民主党が占める民主独占県の長崎での惨敗は深刻だ。

首相と幹事長が政治資金問題について国会で説明を尽くさなければ、政府と民主党へ支持を高めることは難しいだろう。参院選を前に小沢氏に幹事長辞任を求める声が高まるかもしれない。

自民党も喜んでばかりはいられない。勝利した候補者を推薦していなかったのは自信のなさの表れだ。知事選前の現地調査では、自民党への支持は昨夏の衆院選以来7ポイント下がっている。