APEC summit reveals Kan's difficulties in trade policy, diplomacy
(From The Japan Times November 17 issue)

横浜APECで露呈された課題

As its relations with China and Russia are deteriorating over territorial issues, and domestic opinion is sharply divided on further opening its markets, Japan hosted and chaired the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum summit Nov. 13 and 14 in the port city of Yokohama — the first APEC summit in 15 years in Japan.

The results of the summit, which Prime Minister Naoto Kan chaired, and his meetings with the leaders of the United States, China and Russia show that he will continue to face difficulties in trade policy and diplomacy while the approval rating of his Cabinet is falling.

The leaders from 21 Pacific Rim economies broadly agreed to seek to form an economically integrated community on the basis of a Free-Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP), a free and open trade and investment initiative proposed by the United States in 2006.

But the path toward the integration remains unclear. This is because Japan, as chair, failed to mediate among APEC members, especially the United States and China, which have different views. Japan's weakness as chair derived from the fact that the government has been unable to build a consensus among Japanese people on whether to drastically open the country's markets.

The APEC leaders' agreement on a path toward forging an economically integrated community encompassing the Pacific Rim region, the most important task for the Yokohama summit, turned out to be incoherent. Their declaration, called the Yokohama Vision, says that an FTAAP, the basis of the integration, should be pursued "by developing and building on ongoing regional undertakings, such as ASEAN+3, ASEAN+6 and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), among others."

Japan failed to get the United States and China to concur. The United States attaches importance to expanding the TPP, which was initiated in 2005 by Singapore, Chile, New Zealand and Brunei, and aims to create a new framework for trade liberalization by eliminating tariffs on imports from member countries in principle by 2015. The United States, Australia, Malaysia, Peru and Vietnam are negotiating to enter the TPP. On the other hand, China wants to strengthen ASEAN+3, which groups the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus Japan, China and South Korea.

Japan wanted the Yokohama Vision to state 2020 as the goal year for the economic integration based on an FTAAP. While the United States complained that 2020 is too late, some APEC members, which want to protect their industries, complained that 2020 is too early. Thus Japan could not include the goal year for the FTAAP-based integration in the vision.

On the fringe of the APEC summit, Mr. Kan met Chinese President Hu Jintao, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and U.S. President Barack Obama.

Japan and China agreed to hold their leaders' meeting only about 30 minutes beforehand. The two sides reiterated their respective positions on the sovereignty issue of the Senkaku Islands. It would be far-fetched to say that Mr. Kan has succeeded in putting the bilateral relationship on a normal path.

Mr. Kan met Mr. Medvedev and protested against his visit Nov. 1 to Kunashiri Island, one of the four islands off Hokkaido over which Japan and Russia have a sovereignty dispute. Not meeting Mr. Medvedev would have been a better way to express Japan's protest. The meeting gave him a chance to say directly to Mr. Kan that Kunashiri is part of Russian territory. Mr. Kan said that deepening bilateral economic relations would have a good influence on the territorial issue talks. Russia may only get economic fruit and make no compromise over the territorial issue. Japan may need to consider taking a completely new approach to the issue.

To Mr. Kan's relief, Mr. Obama renewed the U.S. commitment to the defense of Japan, including the Senkaku Islands, and support for Japan's position over the territorial dispute with Russia. But Mr. Kan will continue to be troubled by the issue of the relocation of the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma on Okinawa Island. The outcome of the Okinawa gubernatorial election later this month may further complicate the situation.

領土問題で対中･対露関係が悪化し、市場開放について自国の意思も固まらぬまま、APEC首脳会議が横浜で開催された。今回の会議および米中露首脳との会談は、菅首相が貿易･外交面で今後も厳しい状況に置かれることを明らかにした。

加盟21カ国･地域は、アジア太平洋自由貿易圏（FTAAP）を基本とした地域経済統合共同体の構築を目指すことで合意したが、その先行きは不透明だ。会議で採択された横浜ビジョンによると、共同体の基本となるFTAAPは、ASEANプラス3やASEANプラス6、環太平洋パートナーシップ協定（TPP）などを母体に進めるべきだとしている。しかし、米国は関税撤廃を目指すTPPを、中国はASEANプラス3を母体とした枠組みを重視。時期に関しても、日本は2020年実現を宣言に盛り込もうとしたが合意は得られなかった。

菅首相は胡国家主席とメドベージェフ大統領、オバマ大統領とも会談した。日中首脳会談は直前に応諾され、双方が尖閣諸島について立場を主張するにとどまった。メドベージェフ大統領に対して首相は国後島訪問を抗議したが、大統領は国後島の領有権を直接菅首相に主張する機会を得たわけで、むしろ会談を行なわないほうが抗議として有効だったかもしれない。首相は経済的に両国関係が深まる中で領土問題にいい影響が出てくることもあると述べたが、ロシアは経済的利益だけを得て、領土問題では譲歩しないかもしれない。オバマ大統領は尖閣諸島を含む日本の防衛と北方領土問題における日本への支援を新たにしたが、普天間基地移設についての議論は今後も長引きそうだ。沖縄県知事選の結果によっては状況が深刻化する恐れもある。