Mr. Kan and DPJ face high hurdles as ordinary Diet session starts
(From The Japan Times January 24 issue)

通常国会召集、首相と民主党に厚い壁

The Diet opens its ordinary session Jan. 24. The results will greatly influence the fate of Prime Minister Naoto Kan and his Cabinet. By his recent Cabinet reshuffle, Mr. Kan has made it clear that he will give priority to unified reform of the tax system — which would include a consumption tax hike — and the social welfare system, as well as to Japan's participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a regional free-trade agreement. Given the opposition bloc's control of the Upper House, the hurdles for the Kan Cabinet and the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) are high. The fact that Mr. Kan decided to start the Diet session as late as Jan. 24 shows his failure to grasp the difficult situation in which Japan finds itself. For example, as of Dec. 1, only 68.8 percent of university students scheduled to graduate this spring had secured jobs — a record low since statistics were first taken in 1996.

Mr. Kan has declared that he will adopt basic directions for tax and social welfare reform, and the TPP issue by the end of June. These are not easy issues to tackle. Not only public opinion but also opinion within the DPJ is divided. Without at least unified support from the DPJ, Mr. Kan will not be able to persuade the opposition on these matters.

In an attempt to carry out the tax and social welfare reforms, Mr. Kan tapped Mr. Kaoru Yosano, who had assumed important posts under the Liberal Democratic Party's rule, as minister in charge of economic and fiscal policy. Since Mr. Yosano had vehemently attacked the DPJ's policies, Mr. Kan and Mr. Yosano will face strong criticism from the opposition in the Diet. Mr. Kan also has not yet unified the views of Mr. Yosano and the DPJ on how to finance the basic portion of pensions in the future.

In addition to Diet business, Mr. Kan and the DPJ must face the verdict of voters in local elections in April. He will be able to overcome his and the DPJ's crisis only when he presents convincing policy measures to stabilize people's lives.

通常国会の結果は菅首相と内閣の今後に大きな影響を及ぼすだろう。消費増税を含む税と社会保障の一体改革、TPP（環太平洋パートナーシップ協定）参加を優先目標に掲げた菅内閣はねじれ国会で大きなハードルに直面することになる。

優先目標については意見が割れているが、党内の意思統一がなければ野党を説得できまい。目標達成に向けて首相は、自民党政権下で要職を歴任した与謝野馨氏を経済財政相に任命、民主党の政策を厳しく批判していた氏の入閣は、国会で反発を呼ぶだろう。年金改革の財源についても氏と民主党の意思統一がなされていない。

4月に統一地方選を控えた首相と民主党は、国民の生活を安定させる説得力のある政策措置を提示しない限り、危機を乗り越えることはできない。