Road for the No. 3 economy
(From The Japan Times January 28 issue)

世界第三の経済大国としての針路

As it has become certain that China overtook Japan as the world's second-largest economy in 2010, both countries need to consider new directions for managing their economies. China's gross domestic product grew faster than expected — by 10.3 percent in 2010 — pulling down Japan from the No. 2 position that it had enjoyed since 1968. The Cabinet Office is scheduled to announce Japan's preliminary GDP data for 2010 on Feb. 14.

It is predicted that China would overtake the United States as the world's largest economy in about 20 years. But China's per capita GDP is about one-tenth Japan's (¥3,734 versus ¥39,810 as of 2009). Despite its recent tight-money policy, China's economy is apparently overheating. Rising property and food prices are fanning inflation fears.

China faces long-term problems such as economic divisions between the rich and poor, and between urban and rural areas, environmental pollution and a weak social welfare net. Its economic growth was driven by exports. Inevitably, how to achieve balanced growth should be China's top priority. China also should be aware of its responsibility as an economic power in the international community. It should not repeat such behavior as restricting exports of rare earth elements. China is the world's No. 1 emitter of carbon dioxide; the United States is the No. 2 emitter. Together they account for more than 40 percent of global CO emissions. It is clear that China, along with the United States, must accept international obligations to cut CO emissions.

Japan has succeeded in increasing its GDP over the decades. But people are worried about their future because of the stagnant economy, and the dwindling and graying population. It is high time that the government focus on improving the happiness of people as measured by factors such as sense of security, conveniences of daily life, reliable medical and nursing care services, quality of the environment and ease in taking holidays. It also must find ways to improve people's well-being while saving natural resources.

2010年に中国経済が日本を抜き世界2位が確実となった。両国は新たな経済の針路を探らねばならない。中国GDP伸び率は予想より加速、1968年以来日本が守った2位の座を奪った。

今後20年で首位に立つといわれる中国も、一人当たりのGDPは日本の約10分の一。金融引き締め策が打ち出されても経済は過熱気味で、不動産や食料品価格上昇がインフレ不安を高める。

中国は所得格差、環境汚染、セーフティネット未整備など長期的問題を抱えており、成長は輸出が牽引してきた。今後は均衡ある発展を最優先し、経済大国としての義務を認識すべきだ。

日本は経済低迷、少子高齢化などで将来を不安視する声も大きい。安全性、快適な生活、信頼できる介護・医療制度、住環境の質、長期休暇など国民の幸せを政府が向上させる時だ。自然と人々の健康を守る道も探るべきだ。