LDP back in the saddle again

要約

The Liberal Democratic Party, which was badly defeated in the Lower House election in August 2009 and had to give up power to the Democratic Party of Japan after ruling the nation almost without interruption since 1955, made a comeback in the Dec. 16 general election. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the LDP chief, will regain the premiership.

The LDP and its ally New Komeito gained more than two-thirds of the Lower House seats — enough seats to overturn decisions by the Upper House. Forces for constitutional revisions, including the LDP and the Japan Restoration Party, also garnered more than two-thirds of the seats.

Rather than showing strong support for the LDP, the election results should be interpreted as reflecting voters’ strong disappointment with the DPJ, which failed to implement many of its election promises for the 2009 election. In the Dec. 16 election, DPJ numbers in the Lower House decreased to a record low of 57.

It is very likely that voters felt that, amid the economic and political doldrums, it would be safer to give governing power back to the party that has had long experience in running the nation. But given the LDP’s policy proposals, there is no guarantee that people’s lives will improve under an LDP administration or that the international environment surrounding Japan will become stable.

The DPJ promised to take the initiative in policy development from the hands of bureaucrats to break the traditional triangular network of politicians, bureaucrats and industry — the basis of not only LDP politics but also corruption. But the DPJ was unable to achieve anything meaningful in this area. Gradually bureaucrats came to regain their grip over the DPJ government. In addition, the diplomatic row between Japan and China over ownership of the Senkaku Islands must have made some people feel that Japan is weak-kneed.

These factors apparently led voters to support the LDP as well as the Japan Restoration Party, which calls for drastically changing Japan’s governing system through a constitutional revision. The latter secured 54 seats in the election, almost on a par with the DPJ. The irony is that the LDP is the party that, along with New Komeito, tied up with the DPJ to enact the bill that will double the consumption tax rate to 10 percent from October 2015, despite the risk that doing so will wreck the Japanese economy, which is suffering from longtime deflation, and thus lead to an overall fall in tax revenues.

The LDP and the Japan Restoration Party are known for their hawkish attitude on constitutional issues. They call for revising the Constitution, including revision of the war-renouncing Article 9, and for exercising the right to collective self-defense.

The government’s traditional interpretation is that the Constitution prohibits Japan from exercising that right. If the right to collective self-defense is allowed to be exercised, Japan would be legally able to take military action to defend a nation with close ties to Japan if that nation is militarily attacked by a third party.

The LDP and other parties calling for the exercise of that right can enact a bill that will change the government’s traditional interpretation. Exercising the right to collective self-defense could open the way for putting Japanese nationals in harm’s way by involving Japan in military conflict not directly affecting it. This would violate Japan’s defense-only defense policy. Such a bill would completely gut the no-war principle of the Constitution.

The LDP calls for revising Article 9 to create a National Defense Force. Its draft revision states that the proposed NDF, under a specific law, can take part in international cooperative activities to help maintain peace and security in the international community — a concept that can be used to justify Japan’s participation in virtually any type of military mission abroad.

Although the Fukushima nuclear catastrophe highlighted the inherent danger of operating nuclear power plants in this quake-prone country, Mr. Abe opposes the elimination of nuclear power. He says nuclear power plants whose operations are judged safe should be brought back online.

But he seems to forget the fact that nuclear waste storage facilities at such plants are almost full and that no technology exists at present that can ensure the safe, essentially permanent storage of high-level radioactive waste.

Mr. Abe’s call for unlimited monetary easing by the Bank of Japan and for the BOJ’s purchase of all construction bonds runs the risk of causing inflation without increasing meaningful investment, job opportunities and wage levels. People should keep a strict watch on the new administration’s behavior.

日本語の抄訳はウィークリー12月29日/1月5日合併号のP18に掲載されています。