Essay

Obama visits Japan

By Steve Ford

Everyone get ready! U.S. President Barack Obama is coming to Japan. The visit is set for Nov. 12, and if I may indulge in a little crystal ball gazing, I predict the Nobel Prize-winning U.S. president will begin his visit to a frenzied welcome, and by the time Air Force One takes off for Singapore, he will be loved by the Japanese public.

Obama and Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama hit it off when they first met on the sidelines of the U.N. in September, where they carefully avoided any talks of substance on shifting U.S.-Japan ties. That may be harder to do this time around, and Obama faces a potential public relations disaster back home if the U.S.-Japan strategic partnership appears strained as the brand new DPJ government gropes its way toward a coherent foreign policy.

The DPJ coalition is a very big tent and includes all political persuasions, from left to right. When it was an opposition party, the DPJ could easily pick up an issue like the unequal U.S.-Japan relationship and use it as a club to bludgeon the former ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). But as the DPJ moves from sloganeering to actual governance, its policies will need to better reflect the reality of international politics.

Many on the left in Japan have almost gleefully suggested abandoning the U.S.-Japan alliance and embracing its powerful neighbor China as a balance to the U.S. The problem with this facile solution is that while the U.S. needs a strong Japan, a Japan that takes a leadership role in Asia, China does not.

There is nothing wrong with multilateralism, and seeking better ties with China after years of LDP antagonism can only be good. But abandoning the old alliance for a new China-Japan partnership could mean that China would weaken Japanese power to strengthen its own, and that Japan would also lack options to deal with North Korean threats.

Another bone of contention between the two allies is the prickly matter of moving the Marine Corps Airbase from Futenma to a less crowded part of Okinawa. The complicated agreement for the relocation was negotiated over more than a decade, and the DPJ coalition has said it is looking at moving the base completely out of Okinawa, but the U.S. is not eager to reopen the issue.

Other issues at stake include Japan's contribution to the Afghanistan conflict now that it has said it will end its Indian Ocean refueling mission, and working out what "equal" means when referring to the U.S.-Japan alliance.

My hope is that these two dynamic new leaders can focus on rebuilding the partnership between their countries in a way that will make it as strong and relevant for the next 50 years as it has been for the last five decades.

Shukan ST: November 6, 2009

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