Opinion The What-If Game By DOUGLAS LUMMIS	フレームで見る  英文をプリントする  脚注をプリントする
「もしも」ゲーム 「もしも」ゲーム 先月、国籍不明の不審船2隻が日本海で逃走し、 海上自衛隊が警告射撃した事件に関して、 不安をあおるような意見が出てきているが、 その中には現実的でない議論も多い、と 筆者は言う。

Military romantics love what-if arguments. Pretending to be realists, they invent wild scenarios to stump pacifists. "What if a gang of monstrously evil people attacks those you love? You stand helplessly, pleading, `Oh, please don't do it.' A pacifist is no man at all." (This kind of argument is generally addressed to men.)

The Japan Times of March 29 contains a wonderful example: Japan conquered by The Great Fishing Boat Attack. "It is highly probable," writes Ryuichiro Hosokawa, "that North Korean vessels bearing Japanese names will come to this country's shores again. Next time, the fleet may not be made up of just two ships [Those two ships were a "fleet"!?], but rather could consist of 10 or 20 vessels, or even more.

"What would happen if North Korean naval ships and fighter aircraft come to the scene and attack Japanese patrol boats and SDF vessels?

"What if North Korean missiles start hitting bustling areas in Tokyo like Shinjuku, Ginza and Asakusa...?

"Then, North Korean terror ists might try to occupy Japanese embassies abroad, take Japanese diplomats hostage and demand that Japan surrender [Surrender what?].

"If the approximately 135,000 members of the Ground Self-Defense Force are killed or injured in battle, who would defend the country?"

This is scary stuff, until you remember that 1) there is no historical precedent for these acts; 2) there is no indication that North Korea has any such intentions; 3) North Korea could gain nothing from behaving in such a crazy fashion.

You want to play what-if? Then let's begin with historical precedent. In 1931 adventurist elements in the Japanese military were trying to get a free hand, but were being held back by the government and public opinion. "On the night of September 18 they blew up a small section of the South Manchurian Railway that Japan owned, and claiming it had been done by the Chinese, used this as a pretext to overrun all of Manchuria in a series of rapid military pushes." (Edwin Reischauer, "Japan: The Story of a Nation," p.190.)

You want to play what-if? All right: What if those fishing boats weren't from North Korea, but were sent out by some Japanese right-wing organization, or by the SDF itself? Have you heard any hard evidence that they were from North Korea? Didn't they have Japanese markings? Can it be a coincidence that they appeared just when the guidelines for U.S.-Japan defense cooperation were being debated in the Diet?

The first rule in criminal investigation is, "Follow the money." It means, consider the one who gains the most from an incident to be the prime suspect. In the issue of The Japan Times quoted above, Ralph Cossa, an American strategic thinktank intellectual, writes, "We can thank the intruding ships" for demonstrating that Japan needs to remilitarize fully. (p. 21)

And we can thank Mr. Cossa for the tip.

Please don't misunderstand: I am not saying that I know that the above scenario really happened. I am only saying that if you want to play what-if, play it seriously.

Shukan ST: April 16, 1999

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