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優れた兵器と愚かな投下者
優れた兵器と愚かな投下者
昨年5月に起きた、ユーゴスラビアの
中国大使館誤爆事件以来、11ヵ月ぶりにCIAは
誤爆の当事者の処分について公表した。だがそれは、
また誤爆が繰り返されるのではないかという
不安を抱かせる内容のものだ。
Smart Bombs, Dumb Bombers
By DOUGLAS LUMMIS
There is an old (?) saying about computers: "Garbage in, garbage out." It means
that however much "artificial intelligence" your computer may possess, if you give
it dumb instructions, it will give you dumb results.
The same is true for "smart bombs." It is said that they go and blow up only
what they are told to blow up. I don't believe it, but even if it is true, if the people
giving them instructions are dummies, the "smart bomb" will behave no better than
the dumbest "dumb bomb" ever made.
During last year's 78-day NATO air assault on Belgrade, NATO and the U.S. military
began to run out of targets. So they asked U.S. intelligence agencies to suggest
places to bomb. The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had one suggestion: the
headquarters of the Yugoslav Federal Directorate of Supply and Procurement, an
agency that they believed regulated weapons supplies.
The CIA official investigating this learned the address — No. 2 Umetnosti Blvd. But
the map he had didn't show the house numbers on Umetnosti Boulevard. It did, however,
show the numbers on parallel streets. The official concluded that No. 2 on Umetnosti
Boulevard. must be in the same relative position as No. 2 on parallel streets
nearby.
Can you believe it? On this flimsy basis a decision was made to bomb a building,
and to kill or wound the people in it. The CIA would have done better to ask the
advice of any taxi driver or anyone who delivers mail. Or anyone who has lived in a
city where houses have street numbers.
For in fact, houses with the same number are sometimes in the same relative
position, and sometimes not. So all one could say about the target the CIA selected was,
maybe it was the right building, and maybe not.
As it happened, it was not.
Up to this point the story seems pretty funny, if you like black humor. But it is
not funny at all. The building turned out to be, as all the world knows now, the
Chinese Embassy, where three people were killed and 20 wounded. The Chinese government
and people were, quite naturally, outraged, and demanded an investigation,
punishment of those responsible and compensation.
Finally, 11 months after the bombing, the CIA announced that the fellow who made
the mistake described above had been punished by being fired and escorted out of his
office building.
Several others were punished by being placed on probation for one year, which means
they will be unable to receive any promotions or awards during that time. These are, I
suppose, people who knew about the targeting procedure and saw nothing wrong with it.
And this means, I also suppose, that in the United States' next war, these dummies
will again be selecting targets.
I propose that we each send to the CIA a recent map of our neighborhood, with the
house numbers clearly marked. Just in case.
There is an old (?) saying about computers: "Garbage in, garbage out." It means
that however much "artificial intelligence" your computer may possess, if you give
it dumb instructions, it will give you dumb results.
The same is true for "smart bombs." It is said that they go and blow up only
what they are told to blow up. I don't believe it, but even if it is true, if the people
giving them instructions are dummies, the "smart bomb" will behave no better than
the dumbest "dumb bomb" ever made.
During last year's 78-day NATO air assault on Belgrade, NATO and the U.S. military
began to run out of targets. So they asked U.S. intelligence agencies to suggest
places to bomb. The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had one suggestion: the
headquarters of the Yugoslav Federal Directorate of Supply and Procurement, an
agency that they believed regulated weapons supplies.
The CIA official investigating this learned the address — No. 2 Umetnosti Blvd. But
the map he had didn't show the house numbers on Umetnosti Boulevard. It did, however,
show the numbers on parallel streets. The official concluded that No. 2 on Umetnosti
Boulevard. must be in the same relative position as No. 2 on parallel streets
nearby.
Can you believe it? On this flimsy basis a decision was made to bomb a building,
and to kill or wound the people in it. The CIA would have done better to ask the
advice of any taxi driver or anyone who delivers mail. Or anyone who has lived in a
city where houses have street numbers.
For in fact, houses with the same number are sometimes in the same relative
position, and sometimes not. So all one could say about the target the CIA selected was,
maybe it was the right building, and maybe not.
As it happened, it was not.
Up to this point the story seems pretty funny, if you like black humor. But it is
not funny at all. The building turned out to be, as all the world knows now, the
Chinese Embassy, where three people were killed and 20 wounded. The Chinese government
and people were, quite naturally, outraged, and demanded an investigation,
punishment of those responsible and compensation.
Finally, 11 months after the bombing, the CIA announced that the fellow who made
the mistake described above had been punished by being fired and escorted out of his
office building.
Several others were punished by being placed on probation for one year, which means
they will be unable to receive any promotions or awards during that time. These are, I
suppose, people who knew about the targeting procedure and saw nothing wrong with it.
And this means, I also suppose, that in the United States' next war, these dummies
will again be selecting targets.
I propose that we each send to the CIA a recent map of our neighborhood, with the
house numbers clearly marked. Just in case.
Shukan ST: May 5, 2000
(C) All rights reserved
- saying
- 言い回し
- "Garbage in, garbage out"
- 信頼できないデータからの結果は信頼できないという原則 (Garbageは「ゴミ」の意)
- "artificial intelligence"
- 人工知能
- dumb instructions
- 愚かな指令
- The same is true for 〜
- 〜 についても同じことが言える
- blow up
- 爆破する
- dummies
- 愚かな人たち
- behave no better than 〜
- 〜 と同じようにしか機能しない
- air assault
- 空爆
- began to run out of targets
- 攻撃目標にするものがなくなり始めた
- intelligence agencies
- 情報部
- Central Intelligence Agency
- 中央情報局
- headquarters
- 本部
- Yugoslav Federal Directorate of Supply and Procurement
- ユーゴ連邦兵器調達庁
- regulated
- 統制している
- weapons supplies
- 武器供給
- 〜 investigating 〜
- 〜 について調査していた 〜
- parallel streets
- 平行している通り
- in the same relative position as 〜
- 〜 と対比させると同じくらいの位置にある
- On this flimsy basis
- こんな薄弱な根拠で
- wound
- 負傷させる
- would have done better to 〜
- 〜 した方がよかっただろう
- delivers mail
- 郵便物を届ける
- For in fact
- なぜなら実際は
- As it happened
- あいにく
- Up to this point
- ここまでは
- turned out to be 〜
- 〜 だということが分かった
- Chinese Embassy
- 中国大使館
- (were)outraged
- 憤激した
- compensation
- 賠償
- the fellow
- その人
- being fired
- 解雇される
- on probation
- 保護観察下に
- promotions
- 昇進
- suppose
- 思う
- saw nothing wrong with it
- 何も問題がないと思った
- propose
- 提案する
- neighborhood
- 地域
- Just in case.
- 万一に備えて(誤爆されるといけないので)