Essay

Winning odds

By Anthony Fensom

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Sports fans love statistics. Every player has his or her vital data, such as the number of goals scored, batting average or tackles. But can mathematics actually be used to predict the winner of a major sporting event?

Researchers at Goldman Sachs think so. In their latest “World Cup and Economics 2014” report released prior to the kick-off this month in Brazil, the bank provided a statistical model with predictions for every match, including the final.

Sadly, Japanese fans were told even before a ball was kicked that they should not pack their bags for a long holiday. Goldman Sachs gave the Samurai Blue only a 34 percent chance of reaching the knockout stage, and just a 10 percent prospect of advancing to the quarterfinals.

Overall, Japan was rated a 150 to 1 chance of reaching and winning the final on July 13. Instead, Goldman Sachs forecast that match to be contested between the host nation and Argentina, with the Brazilians seen winning by three goals to one.

Other sports keen on statistics include baseball, where the Oakland Athletics’ statistics-based approach inspired the Moneyball book and movie and a revolution in Major League Baseball.

But sports fans who enjoy David against Goliath battles, where the unfancied outsider triumphs over the favorite, will be glad to hear that the statisticians are not always right.

In the 2010 FIFA World Cup, Goldman Sachs’ model correctly forecast 13 of the 16 teams that made it to the knockout stage, five of eight that made the quarterfinals and three of four semifinalists. Yet it proved wrong in tipping Brazil to win, with Spain actually defeating the Netherlands in the final.

For British, Australian and other sports fans, the concept of fair play, of having a contest played on equal terms, is very important. It means that a small and poorer club team has the same chance of beating a wealthier team, if the rules are enforced and there is a level playing field.

Cheating and match fixing are considered unethical by most sports fans. Yet there are constant media reports of betting scandals and other corruption throughout the world of sport.

Will Goldman Sachs’ forecast prove correct? Brazilian fans expect to win anyway, although Japanese supporters will hope the predictions are wrong. Whoever wins, fair-minded fans can only hope that it remains a game of skill and luck, and not math.

勝つ確率

スポーツと統計は切っても切れない関係にある。投資銀行ゴールドマン・サックスの調査によれば、今回のワールドカップで日本が決勝トーナメントに進む確率はわずか34%。この予測は当たるのか？

The Japan Times ST: June 27, 2014