Opinion New wine in old bottles? By Joseph Lapenta	フレームで見る  英文をプリントする  脚注をプリントする
古い革袋の新酒？ 古い革袋に新しい酒を入れると革袋が破れ、酒もこぼれて無駄になるという。小泉首相の新しいやり方は、古い体制の中でこれからどうなっていくだろうか？

New wine in old bottles is a saying that comes from the New Testament of the Bible (Matt. 9-17). It means something new that is added to an established system. Will Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's policies be successful new wine?

It is too early to tell, but there are a number of things that are truly different about him. He and his Cabinet have the highest popularity rating ever and, like former U.S. President Ronald Reagan, he is the first divorced person to be elected to his office. Also like Reagan, he seems to have changed the national mood with his enthusiasm, humor and promises of reform. Mood is a very important factor in politics. If people feel optimistic, it is bound to influence their behavior.

But so far, almost all we have had from Koizumi is talk. He has said that nothing is off limits for reform; there will be no sacred cows and no taboos. He has also said he will not raise taxes, so there does seem to be a taboo against raising taxes. The World Health Organization (WHO) and many domestic and international health groups have been urging Japan for decades to educate its people on the dangers of smoking and to raise taxes on cigarettes. Will Koizumi, who is a dedicated nonsmoker, continue to treat tobacco as a sacred cow?

How about banning corporate donations to politicians and political parties? How about ending amakudari, the practice of retired government officials taking jobs in companies they once regulated? What about U.S. bases? Koizumi has said these issues and others will be studied. Of course, after studying them, he and his party may decide to do very little or nothing.

Talk is cheap, but actions speak louder than words. What has Koizumi actually done? He appointed Makiko Tanaka as the foreign minister, and she has been having a running battle with bureaucrats. They have misinformed her, leaked her off-the-record statements and generally tried to obstruct her.

In her defense, she pointed out that bureaucrats live in a different world. Many Japanese are worried about whether they can keep their jobs or find new ones, but bureaucrats are not elected, cannot be fired and when they retire, they receive enormous pensions. They should take more responsibility for their actions, and only elected politicians can make them do that. Koizumi, to his credit, has continued to support Tanaka, and so has the majority of Japanese people.

Koizumi was praised for his decision in the case of former victims of Hansen's disease. A lower court ruled that the government was responsible for the shameful way those people had been treated for over 30 years. Government officials planned to appeal to a higher court, but Koizumi stopped the appeal, apologized and promised compensation to the victims. The decision was very popular, but it is ironic that when a powerful Japanese politician behaves like a decent human being, the public is so amazed and impressed.

Economic recovery will be Koizumi's real test. His party is in part responsible for the present recession. Can those who helped wreck the economy, help to repair it? He has said recovery will be painful. Painful for whom, and for how long?

If Koizumi cannot reform the system, then high expectations will turn to deep disappointment. Even the tastiest new wine may eventually turn to vinegar.

Shukan ST: July 6, 2001

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