Opinion Japan's coming demographic debacle By Tony Laszlo	フレームで見る  英文をプリントする  脚注をプリントする
人口構成が崩れるとき 日本の労働者の数は減り、退職者の数は増えていくばかり。今の日本の生活水準を保ちたいならば、外国からの移住者をもっと受け入れなければならない。手遅れにならないためにも、今から大々的に外国人労働者受け入れを始めるべきだ。

How many people now live in Japan? As of Oct. 1, 2000, 126,925,843 people. This figure has grown by just more than 1.1 percent over the last five years, the lowest increase on record. Modest though they be, these are among the last positive figures that Japan will see: the population will creep along until it hits around 127,000,000 in 2005. Then, it will begin to shrink.

According to U.N. estimates, Japan's population will decrease by a whopping 2 million over a 45-year span, from 2005 to 2050.

What does that mean? Well, the loss of that many consumers and taxpayers will be enough of a shock, but Japan's demographic problems will not end there. The bigger question is: Who will do the work around here, and keep Japanese society functioning and take care of the burgeoning elderly population?

In 1950, for every retiree there were 12.2 working-aged (15 - 64) people. In 1995, however, this ratio had fallen to 4.8 for every retiree. And in 2050? The way things stand, it will be only 1.7 for every retiree.

The introduction of more robots, women and elderly into the work force will help solve the labor shortage, but such measures will fall pitifully short. Gear things down so that less labor is needed? I don't think people in Japan are ready to live with potholes in the roads, rust on the bridges and trains, ships and planes that run late — or that don't run safely. No, Japanese society will need to be maintained at something near the present level of development, at least. Who will provide the support? There can be only one answer: immigrants.

In the year 2000, Japan's foreign residents numbered approximately 1,690,000 and accounted for only 1.33 percent of Japan's population — the lowest figure by far among industrially developed nations.

Think back to that 1995 working-age vs. retiree ratio mentioned above. To maintain that, Japan would need to bring in 553 million immigrants — 10 million each year between 1995 and 2050. Under such a plan, the population would explode to 818 million in 2050. And a full 87 percent of Japanese society would consist of these immigrants and their descendants. Not an option? I agree.

Should Japan sets its sights lower and attempt to simply maintain the working-age population of 1995, it would still need to bring in 610,000 immigrants per year — 33.5 million by 2050. Immigrants and their descendants would still come to make up a full 30 percent of the total population in the year 2050. These are still inconceivable numbers for Japan, with its traditional reluctance to open the gates to the outside.

But, what is inevitable is inevitable. Anyway you slice it, foreigners will account for at least 10 percent of Japan's population 10 to 15 years from now. Naturally, such a demographic shift will pose quite a shock to the system in Japan.

So as not to fall too far behind on this curve, Japan needs to get started on a more ambitious immigration program. For the longer Japan shuffles its feet, the higher the annual immigration figures will need to be. And the more difficult it will be for both the Japanese and the newcomers to get used to each other, and to bring peace and prosperity to Japan in the 21st century.

Shukan ST: Dec. 14, 2001

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