Opinion Trial balloons and the problem of trust By Joseph LaPenta	フレームで見る  英文をプリントする  脚注をプリントする
様子見と信頼 福田官房長官の非核三原則見直し発言は世論の反応を見るためだったとも言えるが、その効果よりもダメージの方が大きかったのではないか。

The expression "trial balloon" originally meant a balloon launched by meteorologists to test weather conditions. It has come to mean an idea or plan offered as a suggestion to test public reaction. For example, an "unnamed" government official makes an off-the-record statement about a new policy or a change in an old policy. The statement is leaked to the press, and there is a broad range of reactions. If those reactions are strongly negative, we say the trial balloon was "shot down."

Recently there have been a series of hawkish remarks by Japanese officials and politicians that look suspiciously like Trial balloons. They have suggested that Japan might consider producing its own nuclear weapons. In the past, it was usually right-wing nationalists like Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara who have made such suggestions. But now Ichiro Ozawa, leader of a major opposition party, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda, one of the most influential members of the government, have hinted at doing the same thing.

Fukuda said he was misunderstood, but the statements have lead to speculation that Japan's political elite may be considering a revision of the "Peace" Constitution and the three non-nuclear principles. Some say it means that Japan intends to become a major military power, but even without constitutional revision or nuclear weapons, Japan already has considerable military strength.

Japan spends about ¥4.8 trillion a year on defense, which is roughly the same as widely accepted estimates for China. Only the United States and Russia spend more. In fact, Japan tops the United Kingdom, France, Pakistan and India, all of which have nuclear weapons, as well as Israel, which is also believed to have The Bomb.

The so-called Self-Defense Forces are involved in operations as far away as the Indian Ocean, where they are supporting the United States' "war on terrorism." Japan has also been called a "virtual" nuclear power because it has all the technical know-how, plutonium from reactors, and long-range rockets to produce lots of nukes in a short time.

Although poll after poll shows that the vast majority of Japanese people are opposed to nuclear weapons, in national emergencies, governments need not ask their citizens for permission to do what they feel they must do.

The problem is one of trust in Japanese democracy. After every new scandal, we hear about the need to "restore trust" in politics, the government or other institutions. In June, a wide-spread conspiracy was exposed within the Defense Agency. Members of the agency were keeping personal files on people who applied for documents under the Freedom of Information Act.

The act was intended to expose government activities to citizens. Instead, it was being used to expose citizens to government spying. This hardly encourages trust. Nor do attempts to cover up the scale of that conspiracy nor the fact that those responsible are still employed by the agency.

Censored textbooks and official visits to Yasukuni Shrine don't help either. The Diet is currently considering legislation that would give broad wartime powers to the government in case of a vaguely defined threat or emergency. Do you really trust the Japanese government with such powers?

Shukan ST: July 19, 2002

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